Dealer hits all soft hands

[moo321]

I'm trying to calculate the EV of a certain situation. What is the player edge off the top if the dealer hits ALL soft hands, including 18-21, until they are a hard 17 or higher?

[blueefficacy]

Obviously this makes the dealer A a much less scary upcard. The real question is, how long could you expect this to last?

[Frostbyte]

You'd have to sim it. But my guess is this is a player boost on par with 2:1 payoff on naturals.

Accordingly you could probably either flat bet your Kelly-defined max bet or just ratchet your ramp up several notches. One very abusable promo.

[moo321]

Also, what strategy variations? I've been doubling 10 v A and not hitting 15-16 v A, but I suspect other plays are profitable.

[Frostbyte]

I think this would make 11vA +EV off the top. Potentially even 9vA.

There are probably some splits other than 8s and aces that become profitable with an ace showing. You'd need exhaustive CA or a big, long sim to know for sure.

I assume the dealer still benefits from naturals?

[Nyne]

Since it is now a 1 and never 11 (except for a dealer BJ?), as a first pass approximation, I would play as if it were a 2 up card and I would assume the EV against the ace (conditional on no dealer BJ) is now about the same as the EV against a deuce.

This may be wrong since T T doesn't bust the ace like it does the 2, but it should at least give you an upper bound on the EV.

[Frostbyte]

Since it is now a 1 and never 11 (except for a dealer BJ?), as a first pass approximation, I would play as if it were a 2 up card and I would assume the EV against the ace (conditional on no dealer BJ) is now about the same as the EV against a deuce.

This may be wrong since T T doesn't bust the ace like it does the 2, but it should at least give you an upper bound on the EV.

This would make splits of all pairs 2-9 except 4 profitable. And aces, obviously.

[moo321]

I assume the dealer still benefits from naturals?

Yes, dealer blackjack still takes all bets.

[Frostbyte]

Yes, dealer blackjack still takes all bets.

Insurance still offered?

[moo321]

Insurance still offered?

Yes. Insurance still functions normally.

[Glenfiddich18]

Does this include soft 21 that does not involve a dealer blackjack? (e.g. dealer has A-3 and pulls 7) Do they have to hit that as if it were 11?

[moo321]

Does this include soft 21 that does not involve a dealer blackjack? (e.g. dealer has A-3 and pulls 7) Do they have to hit that as if it were 11?

Soft 21 is played as an 11.

[lurppis]

One would almost be tempted to try explaining to the dealer that since it's an H17 game, the dealer can't get blackjack at all, and instead always has to treat it as 11. Of course, the dealer would most likely ask someone to confirm that claim, and expose their original mistake in the process.