I'm trying to calculate the EV of a certain situation. What is the player edge off the top if the dealer hits ALL soft hands, including 18-21, until they are a hard 17 or higher?
You'd have to sim it. But my guess is this is a player boost on par with 2:1 payoff on naturals.
Accordingly you could probably either flat bet your Kelly-defined max bet or just ratchet your ramp up several notches. One very abusable promo.
"Wait a minute. How do you beat someone to death with their own skull? That doesn't seem physically possible." "That's what Jimmy kept screaming: 'This doesn't seem physically possible!'"
I think this would make 11vA +EV off the top. Potentially even 9vA.
There are probably some splits other than 8s and aces that become profitable with an ace showing. You'd need exhaustive CA or a big, long sim to know for sure.
I assume the dealer still benefits from naturals?
"Wait a minute. How do you beat someone to death with their own skull? That doesn't seem physically possible." "That's what Jimmy kept screaming: 'This doesn't seem physically possible!'"
Since it is now a 1 and never 11 (except for a dealer BJ?), as a first pass approximation, I would play as if it were a 2 up card and I would assume the EV against the ace (conditional on no dealer BJ) is now about the same as the EV against a deuce.
This may be wrong since T T doesn't bust the ace like it does the 2, but it should at least give you an upper bound on the EV.
Last edited by Nyne; 11-12-2012 at 07:08 AM.
"Wait a minute. How do you beat someone to death with their own skull? That doesn't seem physically possible." "That's what Jimmy kept screaming: 'This doesn't seem physically possible!'"
One would almost be tempted to try explaining to the dealer that since it's an H17 game, the dealer can't get blackjack at all, and instead always has to treat it as 11. Of course, the dealer would most likely ask someone to confirm that claim, and expose their original mistake in the process.
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