business plan

[jacquesblack]

I am ready to return to full-time advantage play after a three-year hiatus, having accumulated a bankroll of €60,000.
I have devised a business plan which I believe is feasible and would be grateful for any feedback...



I am going to use €32,000 for my blackjack bank and keep the other €28,000 aside for paying bills.


The blackjack bank should allow me to make top bets of two hands of €160 (this is slightly less than half kelly betting), though in some smaller casinos I will keep my top bet to two hands of €100.


My play will all be in Europe and in all the casinos I will be visiting I am confident I will get away with spreading from one hand of €5 to two hands of €100 or one hand of €10 to two hands of €160.


I will play a mixture of four-deck and six-deck games with one to one and a quarter decks cut off at most. Mostly the games will be ENHC, DOA, DAS, S17. Some will have RSA and no insurance. I will also play in games that have ES10 and H17. This should give win-rates of between €33 and €53 per 100 rounds.


My aim will be to try to visit most of the venues at quiet times and having tested out many of them already I calculate I should easily be able to average 120 hands/rounds per hour.


I will be shooting for around 900 hands/rounds per day which should take no more than eight hours. Assuming half my play is in casinos where my top bet is €100 x 2 and half where the top bet is €160 x 2 the ev will be 9 x €43 = €387 per day .


My plan is to play 18 days a month, giving an ev of €6,966 per month. I am estimating expenses of around €1,200 per month but will also have a fixed income of around €600 from other sources, so net income per month should be around €6,366.


According to my simulations the longest amount of time I will go without making any money from blackjack is about three months.


I estimate my living costs to be around €2,800 per month so the €28,000 set aside should easily be enough to take care of any long losing spells.


In an average year my bank should grow by €3,566 x 12 = €42,792 after all living costs and blackjack expenses are removed.


Assuming an average first year, the blackjack bank would be increased to around €74,000, allowing me to make top bets of €350 x 2 in the second year. At this betting level fewer casinos would be available. but playing just half the amount of the time would give me a higher annual ev than achieved in the first year.




Reasons why this business plan might not work:


1. I am aware this is a lot of blackjack play. I believe I could handle this amount for one year and all being well I could cut hours in half the following year.

2. I might end up overplaying some of the casinos and win so much that I am barred even at these relatively low stakes.

3. It's possible I have overestimated the number of hands per day I will be able to play.


What other flaws are there in this business plan? I would be grateful for your comments.

[Three]

2. I might end up overplaying some of the casinos and win so much that I am barred even at these relatively low stakes.

You can get banned after losing big too.

[Marlene]

You say play all around Europe. Did you include travel costs including hotels? What about time lost getting to and from these destinations?

I would also ask if you have played at these venues enough to be confident that they will let you play straight counting for this length of time? Can you camp out for 4,6, 8 hours at a stretch and just take their money?

All food for thought. This would be hard in the US but maybe they are more relaxed about counting where you live.

[Stealth]

I appreciate that you have a well defined plan and would assume your sims provided the technical answers needed.

My biggest concern about that plan would be three things.

1. The level of play and probability of being backed off at enough casinos to make your plan unworkable. Obviously, this will take some time but I think the threat is real. I know the threat would be real in the US.

2. I am not aware of the cost of living in Europe but 1200 euros seems like a very small monthly expense for traveling around Europe and playing.

3. Ability to withstand the "pressure" of variance at that frequency.

You did not mention playing styles but I would suggests adding back counting to only play in positive counts would be a big improvement in EV and reduction in variance. If you are doing all play then an aggressive wong out program would be highly beneficial.

Happy hunting!

[DSchles]

Just a quick comment on one point: Back-counting, if done optimally, as would be for play-all, does not decrease variance; rather, it increases it. For the same bankroll, you are playing higher stakes at the good counts than you would if you were playing those counts as part of a play-all scheme. Since minimum bets contribute very little to the variance of a play-all approach, the variance for the bigger bets of back-counting is higher than the variance of all the bets at play-all. Just look at any of the BJA3 Chapter 10 charts.

Don

[ZenMaster_Flash]

As the O.P. is a beginner it is important to note that high stakes BJ games are most often,
and in most places, NMSE ("No Mid Shoe Entry"); and where the stakes are low, the rules
are almost always worse, ESPECIALLY if they permit you to "Wong In and Out" Of course an
empty casino or one that is very crowded all but precludes Wonging, as is a casino with just
one pit. Of course, You can be backed-off (or worse) for Wonging. In doing your figures you
will note that you will be lucky to play 20 hands per hour. Get good walking shoes. Y M M V

[ZenKinG]

Just a quick comment on one point: Back-counting, if done optimally, as would be for play-all, does not decrease variance; rather, it increases it. For the same bankroll, you are playing higher stakes at the good counts than you would if you were playing those counts as part of a play-all scheme. Since minimum bets contribute very little to the variance of a play-all approach, the variance for the bigger bets of back-counting is higher than the variance of all the bets at play-all. Just look at any of the BJA3 Chapter 10 charts.

Don

THAT, and also something that doesnt go noted that often is how great penetration can actually be detrimental to a small bankroll player. We all know good blackjack penetration is of the utmost priority, but for a small bankroll player, it could actually be terrible because it can quickly wipe out their roll. Good pen means a lot of big bets, if you play that good pen game long enough and you're on the negative side of the bell, that can not only dent the bankroll, but wipe it out. Also on a side note and probably most importantly, it can damage the psyche of the player badly and make them really question if blackjack is beatable, especially if they're first starting out.

[moo321]

Don't quit your day job. Go once or twice a week for awhile, and see if you can double your bankroll.

[moo321]

Don and ZenKing, we're assuming he's using a risk-adjusted spread, right? In that case, back-counting and good pen are obviously beneficial.

[ZeeBabar]

THAT, and also something that doesnt go noted that often is how great penetration can actually be detrimental to a small bankroll player. We all know good blackjack penetration is of the utmost priority, but for a small bankroll player, it could actually be terrible because it can quickly wipe out their roll. Good pen means a lot of big bets, if you play that good pen game long enough and you're on the negative side of the bell, that can not only dent the bankroll, but wipe it out. Also on a side note and probably most importantly, it can damage the psyche of the player badly and make them really question if blackjack is beatable, especially if they're first starting out.

He is not a newbie, says he is returning and has already tried out a bit.

[NotEnoughHeat]

He is not a newbie, says he is returning and has already tried out a bit.

I did find it a bit strange that there was the explicit assumption that he was. Perhaps others were going by the length (lack of) post history on this website. However, the OP clearly states that used to be a full-time AP.