I am ready to return to full-time advantage play after a three-year hiatus, having accumulated a bankroll of €60,000.
I have devised a business plan which I believe is feasible and would be grateful for any feedback...
I am going to use €32,000 for my blackjack bank and keep the other €28,000 aside for paying bills.
The blackjack bank should allow me to make top bets of two hands of €160 (this is slightly less than half kelly betting), though in some smaller casinos I will keep my top bet to two hands of €100.
My play will all be in Europe and in all the casinos I will be visiting I am confident I will get away with spreading from one hand of €5 to two hands of €100 or one hand of €10 to two hands of €160.
I will play a mixture of four-deck and six-deck games with one to one and a quarter decks cut off at most. Mostly the games will be ENHC, DOA, DAS, S17. Some will have RSA and no insurance. I will also play in games that have ES10 and H17. This should give win-rates of between €33 and €53 per 100 rounds.
My aim will be to try to visit most of the venues at quiet times and having tested out many of them already I calculate I should easily be able to average 120 hands/rounds per hour.
I will be shooting for around 900 hands/rounds per day which should take no more than eight hours. Assuming half my play is in casinos where my top bet is €100 x 2 and half where the top bet is €160 x 2 the ev will be 9 x €43 = €387 per day .
My plan is to play 18 days a month, giving an ev of €6,966 per month. I am estimating expenses of around €1,200 per month but will also have a fixed income of around €600 from other sources, so net income per month should be around €6,366.
According to my simulations the longest amount of time I will go without making any money from blackjack is about three months.
I estimate my living costs to be around €2,800 per month so the €28,000 set aside should easily be enough to take care of any long losing spells.
In an average year my bank should grow by €3,566 x 12 = €42,792 after all living costs and blackjack expenses are removed.
Assuming an average first year, the blackjack bank would be increased to around €74,000, allowing me to make top bets of €350 x 2 in the second year. At this betting level fewer casinos would be available. but playing just half the amount of the time would give me a higher annual ev than achieved in the first year.
Reasons why this business plan might not work:
1. I am aware this is a lot of blackjack play. I believe I could handle this amount for one year and all being well I could cut hours in half the following year.
2. I might end up overplaying some of the casinos and win so much that I am barred even at these relatively low stakes.
3. It's possible I have overestimated the number of hands per day I will be able to play.
What other flaws are there in this business plan? I would be grateful for your comments.
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