Early position advantage.

[mushin]

Well the affect (Did I get it right this time Don? I almost did it the other way after your comment but then I thought about it more) is the same no matter what count you use. It may just not be as obvious for unbalanced counts.

This helps me out quite a bit. Essentially with The Color of Blackjack im doing automatic TC conversion based off my deck estimation and the RC but the TC is fuzzy in the sense the you never really look at it. You just look at the RC and decks and determine if you have hit a threshold value for your bet ramp. Since ultimately what I am doing is TC conversion anyway then I should not be concerned that the running count may drop before I get my starting hand. I will have to wrap my head around things still... because that little voice in the back of my head still is telling me "Hey buddy. you want to be as close to your betting decision point as possible when cards are dealt so you can get those 10 value cards before the other players". This is probably the time where I just accept that my intuition is leading me astray.

[Masterhoudini]

Well the affect (Did I get it right this time Don? I almost did it the other way after your comment but then I thought about it more) is the same no matter what count you use. It may just not be as obvious for unbalanced counts.

Don't wanna lighten the duty of the grammar police but it's effect in that sentence. Effect is used as a noun (person, place or thing).

[Three]

Well the reality is you can't change your bet after seeing the cards so everyone makes their bets with the same information and the cards will fall one way or the other in the expected frequencies for the TC and these will balance. Everyone makes their bet with the same info. Everyone plays their hand with the info they have at the time. The dealers hand is played automatically but the deck composition changes more the closer you get to first base from third base. The closer the deck composition is to what is was when you played your hand when the dealer plays their hand the better it is for the accuracy of your play. Let's say you are at first base and the TC is +3. You get a T and a low card. Does that somehow translate to an advantage for you? You are as likely to get this as anyone else. If your first card is a low card is that going to help you? Your hand consists of 2 cards that were chosen at random from 12 unseen cards that were to be dealt to the players and dealer all at the same time so far as betting decisions are concerned.

The way to see this clearly is to consider all cards dealt face down. Everyone has the cards they have. Is the order they are revealed going to affect the accuracy of the bet you made. You don't know who has which cards so how is the order they are revealed going to affect anything. Lets say you are playing and the cards are dealt to the last card. Don't worry about playing the hands. There are just enough cards left that they are 2 for each spot. Sure if you are the last guy to have his cards revealed you know exactly what the cards are but they could be any 2 cards before the cards are revealed. In the long run each possibility will approach expected frequency for all spots if this is done enough times. That should be obvious to you. Now how would seeing you got a better or worse hand first be any kind of advantage given that you all made your bets with the same information.

[Three]

Don't wanna lighten the duty of the grammar police but it's effect in that sentence. Effect is used as a noun (person, place or thing).

Thanks. Maybe I will remember this explanation. I was not a good English student because few teachers made it interesting. I got A's when taught by the ones that made it interesting. However, with the mathematical precision of grammar I did quite well. This is one thing among a number of things that never stuck though. Perhaps I learned something today that I have struggled with my whole life.

[mushin]

Well the reality is you can't change your bet after seeing the cards so everyone makes their bets with the same information and the cards will fall one way or the other in the expected frequencies for the TC and these will balance. Everyone makes their bet with the same info. Everyone plays their hand with the info they have at the time. The dealers hand is played automatically but the deck composition changes more the closer you get to first base from third base. The closer the deck composition is to what is was when you played your hand when the dealer plays their hand the better it is for the accuracy of your play. Let's say you are at first base and the TC is +3. You get a T and a low card. Does that somehow translate to an advantage for you? You are as likely to get this as anyone else. If your first card is a low card is that going to help you? Your hand consists of 2 cards that were chosen at random from 12 unseen cards that were to be dealt to the players and dealer all at the same time so far as betting decisions are concerned.

The way to see this clearly is to consider all cards dealt face down. Everyone has the cards they have. Is the order they are revealed going to affect the accuracy of the bet you made. You don't know who has which cards so how is the order they are revealed going to affect anything. Lets say you are playing and the cards are dealt to the last card. Don't worry about playing the hands. There are just enough cards left that they are 2 for each spot. Sure if you are the last guy to have his cards revealed you know exactly what the cards are but they could be any 2 cards before the cards are revealed. In the long run each possibility will approach expected frequency for all spots if this is done enough times. That should be obvious to you. Now how would seeing you got a better or worse hand first be any kind of advantage given that you all made your bets with the same information.

Much of the following is kind of a thought process dump.

The order they are revealed does not affect the accuracy of the but the number cards that come out do. Assuming that high counts spit out high cards sooner than later. This is partly why we less crowded tables are better. Fewer cards translate to more frequency of getting higher value cards for your hand. I'm not looking at it in terms of changing my bet or seeing cards. Its more of thought that.. (Also understand that I am not trying to say I am right. I am just trying to think things through.) If the count is say 35 and 14 (26% of a deck) cards are going to be dealt what is the effect they would have on my advantage. There is a lag (call it quarter of a deck) between my big bet trigger and when I get to actually get my starting hand. At first position the lag is half (13% of a deck.) I guess it is a question of does being later greatly hinder the chances of getting better cards for that round. (High counts means more high cards sooner than later..?)

I have always understood that 3rd base is better because you get to see more cards before you make your playing decisions and thus index plays etc are more accurate because you get further into the deck. But in terms of determining what to bet the earlier position seem to make your bet amount more accurate as it gives you a better change of receiving the better cards. The order they are revealed does not affect the accuracy of the bet amount but the number cards that come out do. This is partly why we less crowded tables are better. Fewer cards translate to more frequency of getting higher value cards for your hand.

However, I also realize that the hands are all resolved only after all decisions and that is what will ultimately determine the win or loss.

An interesting analysis would be to sim 1st base and 3rd base somehow that they are playing identical games and same strategy with the same bet ramp but somehow measure the effect of the position they are in. I just can't think of how it it would be setup though.

[SiMi]

Hi, mushin

I think this is one of the many areas of probability that is NOT easily understood. I suspect tons of people have the same 'intuition' you had. In case you're still looking for some way to get your head around why the seat position doesn't have an advantage, maybe this will help...

You wrote the following, which I think is very relevant: "Assuming that high counts spit out high cards sooner than later."

Assume you're playing a shoe game. If the TC is +3, that means there are more high cards remaining than would 'normally' be expected in a truly random shuffle/deal at this point. The problem is that you don't know WHERE those 'extra' high cards reside in the remaining cards. They MIGHT be the very next cards to come out of the shoe, or they MIGHT be about to come out after 5 cards are dealt or they MIGHT come out in a mostly haphazard way (without any apparent clumping at all) or they MIGHT even be behind the cut card (and thus may NEVER come out in this shoe).

Counting does not tell you WHEN those 'extra' high cards will come out or even IF THEY WILL COME OUT AT ALL - only that they are there in the remaining cards. Sitting in 1st base is no more of an advantage than any other seat if you don't know WHEN the 'good' cards will come out. All you know as a counter is that the remaining cards INCLUDING THE CARDS BEHIND THE CUT CARD are weighted to favor high cards. OVER THE LONG RUN (and this is a VERY long time), this will give you an advantage because your chance of getting a 'good' hand (and/or a dealer bust) is generally better (probability-wise) in this scenario. But, again, you just don't know WHEN or even IF they will come out of THIS shoe. (When they don't come out, you can get big losses as you ramp up your bet and lose big. Welcome to variance!)

You could easily see EVERYONE at the table get a high card for their first card and this would not be surprising at all. (I bet you've seen that happen several times at a high TC and you were relieved to see that someone to your right did NOT get "your" card, right? But, this is not correct thinking. You just don't know WHEN those 'good' cards will come out of the shoe.)

I don't know if that helps at all. It's how I got my head around the idea you're working on.

Best of luck!
SiMi

[Bodarc]

An interesting analysis would be to sim 1st base and 3rd base

https://blackjackincolor.com/penetration10.htm

[mushin]

All the replies in this have been great and I think this has been a good topic of discussion. I trust the math and will not let my intuition tell me otherwise. Bodarc---- correction.... SiMi did a good job setting my mind as easy. All things considered my idea was based on trying enhance the chances of getting better cards and the assumption that a high count will yield more high cards. Although this is true the underlying factor is that cards come out randomly. When looking at a single round the view is too narrow... too small of a sample. Since all cards come out randomly... in the end I can see where sitting in first base will yield just as many high cards as third base over time. Because of this I can at least know that while my intuition is bugging me it is simply because I can't fathom the vast amount of hands needed for it to all average out. When looking through a microscope even the small things seem bigger than they actually are. That is the problem with looking at individual hands or rounds or even shoes for that matter... what seems like a big deal at a microscopic resolution is barely worth considering when considering the vastness of the Universe. (The universe being billion hand simulations.)

[Three]

I will try this again. Only being considered about the cards being dealt in that round take just enough cards to give each spot including the dealer 2 cards each. If you reshuffled and redealt those same cards repeatedly why would you think first base would be more likely to get the high cards in the group of cards? Choose a group that has a true count of +3. You should know that as you approach the long run everyone will get the same distribution of the possible hands. That is exactly what is happening at the table. Everyone makes a bet. The next so many unknown cards are dealt. Everyone is just as likely to get any 2 cards in the group of cards being dealt. Sometimes the first cards out are "good" cards and sometimes they are "bad" cards. After seeing the cards it does affect the probability of the remaining cards in the group but you don't know what cards you will see. You know what they say when you ASSUME what card you will see. In computer jargon we say garbage in, garbage out. You made an assumption and got garbage as your result of your thought process.

Basically yes if you have next card info first base is best. If not don't start your logic with the assumption you do. And don't dismiss the effect of the times you get a "bad" card as your first card. What is a "bad" first card anyway. If your second card is a 5 what is a good and bad first card. What if you second card is an 8, T or A.

[DSchles]

"Well the affect (Did I get it right this time Don? I almost did it the other way after your comment but then I thought about it more)"

NO! You had been spelling it "affect" all through your original post. You want EFFECT (noun).

Don

[Three]

NO! You had been spelling it "affect" all through your original post. You want EFFECT (noun).

Don

Thanks done but MH gave me a grammar lesson that should prevent the mistake every time I think twice about it in the future.

[DSchles]

"Its more of thought that.. (Also understand that I am not trying to say I am right. I am just trying to think things through.) If the count is say 35 and 14 (26% of a deck) cards are going to be dealt what is the effect they would have on my advantage."

The (not so obvious to you) answer is: absolutely no effect whatsoever! Maybe this will help: instead of actually dealing those 14 cards to the other players before getting to your hand, suppose I throw them on the floor instead, and then deal the next card to you. Does that change anything? of course it doesn't. Now, suppose I pick up those 14 cards, and, in my confusion, I shuffle them all up so that the 15th card is now on top and I deal that one to you. Does THAT change anything? Again, the answer is, of course not.

"An interesting analysis would be to sim 1st base and 3rd base somehow that they are playing identical games and same strategy with the same bet ramp but somehow measure the effect of the position they are in. I just can't think of how it it would be setup though."

This has already been done by Norm. Give me a while and I'll find it for you.

Don

[DSchles]

"And don't dismiss the effect of the times"

Third time's the charm!

Don