Newbie advice

[Cardguy]

I'm fine with low EV, low variance to start and I think that might be best for me so maybe a 1:6 spread is a good idea at the beginning. I remember reading somewhere that you need at least a 1:12 spread to beat an 8 deck game so I thought that even 1:10 was on the low side. Am I playing a losing game if I spread that low? Also, do you guys have any tips on backcounting? Here's what I picture. I walk up to a table that is mid shoe and have to wait for the shuffle. Then I count, and half way through the shoe the TC finally hits +1 so I Wong in. I feel like I might be standing there with my d*** in my hand for quite a while before that happens making me look very suspicious. Also, I've read that you want to limit your session time to 45-60 minutes. After that, are you done for the night or do you just move to another table? Again, thanks for all the help - I'm excited to get started!

[Three]

Am I playing a losing game if I spread that low?

There are a bunch of free resources in the tool bar above. Click on BJ resources. In the next tool bar you can click on CVCX online and check some canned sims for a play-all game. There is also a free book and some calculators. By messing with things like pen and rules etc you can see how various things affect your EV. You can see the appropriate BR or RoR and how they change your bet size and change with spread. You can see the affect of various count tag values on BC, PE and IC with the efficiency calculator. There are a lot of interactive tools to help you get a feel for how the terms thrown around interact and affect your game. These are great learning tools.

[Masterhoudini]

I think the game plan looks solid, some minor suggestions.

Spread- start at 2 hands and only drop to 1 hand at negative TC-1. I wouldn't wong out until TC-2, with a pen of 85%-90%, there is lots of opportunity for the shoe to come back from TC-1. Do not go back to two hands for the rest of the shoe, just spread upwards instead, so ex. if your TC calls for 2x60, then your one hand should be 1x90. Only go back to two hands the same shoe if dealer is killing everyone at the table hand after hand and you have to loudly make an excuse like you need to change the sacred flow of the cards etc.

Surrender indices- learn some common ones beyond I18/Fab4. Ones that commonly appear are 15 vs. 9, 14 vs. 10 etc.

Start with a small spread like 1-6, or 1-8 and then move up from there when comfortable and when you've determined tolerance level and heat (though you likely wouldn't get any at those stakes). Bet only in red, since green action is watched more carefully and may sometimes be called out at small joints. You may even consider backcounting at first to make sure your game is up to speed dealing with casino distractions- smoke, conversations etc. Some shoe games even 1-3 spread gives you an advantage, albeit crap score, you'd be surprised. Run the numbers and figure that out yourself. Also does TC1 actually give you an advantage on that game?? (not sure what house edge is- recheck this carefully and scale your bets accordingly).

Start taking notes on ploppy lines you can say and begin to work on your act in terms of mannerisms, conversation, etc.

Enjoy the roller coaster ride of variance.

[Dieter]

Start taking notes on ploppy lines you can say and begin to work on your act in terms of mannerisms, conversation, etc.

... and practice delivering those lines convincingly and sincerely.

[Cardguy]

Thanks again for all the advice! Final questions:
1) I've heard it recommended to play 45-60 minutes at a time. After that do you leave the casino or just switch tables?
2) How do you Wong in without being painfully obvious (standing behind the table for 15 minutes then suddenly jumping in)?

[Oneoffthecount]

Card guy, I'm in relatively the same position as you developmentally and have gotten fantastic advice from all of these players. I think you wrote one of the best newbie posts, I've seen so far.

I had the same reluctance as you with back counting, however, I thought about it and I think the guy who sits down and plays single mins for the same 20 minutes that you would be backcounting and then shoots his bet s up to max of 2x$150, looks even more obvious than the guy who joined mid shoe. Also, since you are starting at say your TC 2 bet, it looks more like a 3 to 1 spread instead of a 16 or 20 spread. My current plan is to not wong in until I hit a full 2. Not move to one hand until true count is a rounded -1, and wong out at rounded -2. In addition, if I finish the shoe, I'll plan to start the next at my TC1 count bet which is two hands and see if the count actually goes to a rounded 1 (+4 real count/eight deck) or goes to a rounded TC-1, before wonging out. I've been strongly advised not to go past the shuffle after the second shoe, should it go postitive.

On continuing play the pros gave me some excellent advice, which was depends. As you learn to read the casino environment and consider factors like the amount you won lost on the last session and how much attention you were getting and how much variance there was in your betting versus the casinos tolerance and how much the casino is worth to you (e.g. a home store with good rules versus an away game with moderate rules and penn). This is something we both still need to acclimate ourselves too. I'm taking the advice and going as a cup holding slot player who is looking at the blackjack game and wishing I had that kind of money to play, purely observing and backcounting. Trying to spot counters and get some clues to how they play and what their act is.