Newbie advice

[Cardguy]

Learned to count (HiLO) about 6 months ago and have been practicing as much as I can with Casino Verite. I've got BS, I18 and Fab4 down cold I think. Ready to try things out in a real casino. Not looking to be a pro, just enjoy the challenge and I'd like to make a little extra money playing a few hours a week. I've got a $15,000 bankroll and I think I'd like to start as small as possible until I'm confident (and hopefully increase my bankroll). My local store offers 8D, S17, LS, DAS with about 85-90% penetration and a $15 minimum. My plan was to play from the start of the shoe but Wong out at TC < -1 with the following spread: TC 0: 15, TC 1: 30, TC 2: 2x30, TC 3: 2x50, TC 4+: 2x75. If I can't play two hands, I'll spread 15-30-60-100-150. I assume I won't have to worry about heat with this? The software gives this a win rate of $18.33/hr, ROR 1.4%, DI 6.09. Sound reasonable? Any advice appreciated. This forum is awesome!

[Stealth]

Sounds like a well thought out plan.

Taking it to the casino will test you abilities to execute the technical side. Be prepared to get frustrated with the effect of distractions. Suggest you go to casino and back count some tables to get comfortable. It is both good practice experience and a great way to enter a game when it is positive (wong in). This too shall pass with experience and time. Starting small is a very good idea.

When you reach TC -1 play another round and play until you lose. You then can see if the count goes back positive and resume playing or keep winning at a negative count. You are already at the table and a small way from a positive count, take advantage of the opportunity. Leave when you lose the round at TC -1 (not a hand) It is almost like being your own spotter.

Be committed to not playing in negative counts (other than as suggested above). This is the most important thing you can do to add value to your game while reducing your variance.

Begin to think about your acts, as you will need them to go to higher bet levels or to play often and long. First test and certify your technical skills, then work on how to get away with it. If you want to do this long term then the acts are very important. Notice I said acts, not one but many designed to fit the situations, casino, your persona, etc.

Be prepared to lose as well as expecting to win. Track your results against your expectations so that you have some confirmation of your play.

Heat should be low with that bet ramp but that is very store dependent. Plan how you will react with your first back off. My advice is DO NOT ARGUE WITH THEM, pick up chips, do not color up, do not cash out, do not answer questions, do not give ID (unless police officer and tell him that you do not want the casino to have it) and walk straight to the nearest exit and leave the building. Do not go to your car if it is on the casino property, take a taxi, call someone and arrange to get your car later.

Let the fun begin. Good variance and happy hunting!!

[ZenMaster_Flash]

The only problem is that you will get 86'd for spreading to 2 spots when the TC suggests it.
Also, if you are getting such good penetration (and such fine rules) your wont-out point must
be adjusted to where you are in the shoe. If after 2 decks are played the count plunges to -3,
Wong-Out. If there is 1 deck remaining continue with minimum bets.

I suggest learning more indices. All indices that are anywhere close to ZERO are important,
but less so for splits and soft doubles. Just add 1 or 2 or 3 indices each weak.

An often overlooked factor is your True Counting.

Be sure to do so via "Flooring"

A 10-1 spread will almost always be tolerated in a shoe game
if the stakes are low. "it will not fly" with black action.

[Orangechip2]

I wouldn't spread to two hands in ONLY +TC scenarios . If the plan you like better is the two hand approach,then spread to two hands at table min for cover occasionally. (if allowed). Also, no tipping - unless it gets you something like pen, better rates, etc. with a 15,000 roll starting out remember not to sweat the losses.Even if you drop 20 Max bets in a session, stick to your original approach and grind out your losses .

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Start off each shoe betting 2 spots ~ stay at 2 spots ~ as long as the T.C. is no worse than -1.

During the course of play once you go to 1 spot - do NOT go back to 2 spots until after the shuffle.

[Jabberwocky]

Start off each shoe betting 2 spots ~ stay at 2 spots ~ as long as the T.C. is no worse than -1.

During the course of play once you go to 1 spot - do NOT go back to 2 spots until after the shuffle.

What's the point of dropping to one hand? if it's too much minus, exit the shoe. And if the table is always full, he will get about 50-60 rounds per hour. Pretty damned abysmal.

[ZeeBabar]

Lots of advantages to going to one hand. It increases the spread and you can wait out the negative shoes, rather than wong out, lose your seat or lose a table where the dealer is providing great penetration. If I am playing 2x $20 and can go to one hand of $5 at TC0@, why not?

[Jabberwocky]

Lots of advantages to going to one hand. It increases the spread and you can wait out the negative shoes, rather than wong out, lose your seat or lose a table where the dealer is providing great penetration. If I am playing 2x $20 and can go to one hand of $5 at TC0@, why not?

Full tables I find too disgusting. I am able to play a lot of heads up games.

[Cardguy]

Wow! Thanks for all the great advice. A few questions:
1) Flooring - you mean play a true count of 1.9 as 1 not 2 (always round down)? Does this apply to both betting and indices?
2) The advice about spreading/not spreading to two hands is purely for cover reasons, right?
3) Should I get a players card and ask for comps or just stay anonymous?
BTW, I'm fine with slow play at the beginning as I'm more worried about not losing money rather than winning it until I get more experience.

[Dieter]

Wow! Thanks for all the great advice. A few questions:
1) Flooring - you mean play a true count of 1.9 as 1 not 2 (always round down)? Does this apply to both betting and indices?

That's not rounding down, that's rounding towards zero (truncating). Flooring always rounds to the next lower integer; -1.2 would floor to -2; 1.2 would floor to 1.

edit: I didn't see the lack of a minus sign before the 1.9. Yes, that's flooring.

[Fireman]

Good luck to OP, it seems like he has a nice initial plan. I will offer two suggestions that may be of help.

First, be flexible in your approach (bet spread, play rated or not, game selection, style: hit and run or play through shoes, etc.). You will probably find that you need to adjust your game based on your casino and as your game progresses.

Next (and I know that I will get slammed by some for suggesting this) would be to take it slow. For a few sessions, start with a 4 to 1 spread, then move to a 6 to 1 spread (yes, I know the EV is miniscule at this spread, but so is the variance). Think of your early playing time as an extended education period. EV and bankroll growth should take a back seat to learning the "art" of the game. You may find that keeping count and mastering indices is the easy part of the game. Soak up as much info in and out of the casino as you can. After a while, your management of heat and bet spread will improve and you should be able to get away with a larger spread.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Fireman,

Kudos for your suggestions to Cardguy.

Your stating "Think of your early playing time as an extended education period." is truly excellent

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Cardguy,

You asked:

"The advice about spreading/not spreading to two hands is purely for cover reasons, right?"

Roughly 15 yrs. ago Pit Critters learned that almost all non-professional Card Counters will

move between 1 and 2 spots depending on the count. This made their jobs incredibly easy,

as they need not do a long countdown of the cards in play. All they needed to do was note

when you moved between 1 and 2 spots. Absurdly easy.