Acceptable RoR

[Oneoffthecount]

Thanks to both of you. Baby steps is probably good advice. Frieghtman, I am looking to revise my sims to meet expenses but control Ror. I think starting small is good advice and seeing how it goes. Still trying to find a job along the normal lines but its tough and I'm tired of waiting to do something. Thanks to both of you for pointing out the cliff. I might start off the first three months in a more limited game plan but I can't see waiting for 18 months. I separted bankroll into 70k for playing and 30k for living. that gives me six months to make it. Back up plan? Still trying to find a job but so far it has sucked at plan A....Breaking into retirement to fund a franchise type of deal, possibly Dunkin Doughnuts. Thanks again for all of your help.

[DSchles]

"DS, this post was spell checked prior to submitting. Go ahead, do your worst!"

Ha! I appreciate the effort, especially for such a long post. Wish everyone would do likewise. No spelling errors. A typo here and there (#3400, instead of $3400) and one grammatical error: daughter two graduated FROM high school. Otherwise, nice job!

Don

[Oneoffthecount]

I feel like I just got a gold star on my homework! Oh Happy Day!

[Bodarc]

I'd say Silver, you missed a few.

[Oneoffthecount]

YOu had to rain on my parade. I've had always treated senior members with the utmost respect. With that in mind...Go suck an egg!

[ZenMaster_Flash]

moses,

Bear in mind that Oneoffthecount has not stepped foot into in actual casino in 5 years.
Low stakes tables have deteriorated badly re: both penetration and rules and NMSE
is painfully common where (otherwise) inviting table conditions exist, so mentioning
"wonging in and out" needs to appear with a citation re: the reality in many venues.

[mickeymouse]

What a heroic father to play BJ for his children's college fees. Far from paying for mine, in my freshman year my millionaire mom and dad spent 6 months on vacation all around America. Now I'm attempting to pay off my student loans from bj at the ripe old age of 33. God bless you!

[Tarzan]

I like a ROR that is near zero, which it is. Sometimes I see posts in which people talk about their blackjack play in terms of average hourly earning using a given system at a given betting level with a given spread and poof! This is what I make an hour according to the sim! Sounds good in theory and on paper but this is not real life. Picture those two old women on that commercial with the stuff taped to the wall saying, "That's not how this works, that's just not how any of this works!". This is the fatal flaw on the part of many blackjack enthusiasts trying to become profitable, they don't know how any of this works. They equate their potential blackjack earnings to an hourly rate as if they are going to have some sort of steady draw just like picking up a paycheck at the end of the week and quite frankly... That's not how any of this works!

A hypothetical but typical situation as follows: A well rounded AP with plenty of bankroll and a proven track record plays only the best rules at higher stakes, usually playing occasionally $25 min. but more often than not $50 and $100 min. One year he can make $263,000 for the year and the very next year make only $12,000 for the entire year. There are long periods of winning streaks that you can seemingly do no wrong and then the bottom can drop out of the market and you can lose heavily for extended periods. You can't set your watch by it, you can't count on it, it's not a steady income. It's not like working a job in which you pick up a regular or steady paycheck at the end of the week. It averages out to some sort of "average hourly rate" but only if you examine a long enough stretch of time/hours in at the tables covering months or even years! To play full time you need to have money besides your bankroll to sustain you for a year or two, to the point that your bankroll has no bearing on your bills being paid or your quality of life, it is merely a number that goes up and down on a ledger.

[SiMi]

Hi, Oneoffthecount!

Thanks for posting! This is really interesting!! I think everyone is giving great advice and it is just so cool to me that we old farts can use this new-fangled 'interwebs' thing to get all this great info these days!! Can you believe how cool this is? If this thing existed back when I was 21, I would be a completely different person.

Anyway, I just wanted to add a voice of encouragement to you and say that I like what Freightman said about maybe using the next 18 months to really polish your game/skills and get back in the saddle a little at some real Casinos.

Also, you might want to use the next 18 months to look into OTHER forms of AP. These opportunities will become more apparent to you as you spend more and more time in the Casino, actually playing and carefully observing EVERYTHING. So, the low-stakes play, while not as profitable as we all would love, will still get you in the Casinos with a small EV and give you time to scope it all out and get some ideas for ways to make this AP thing work for you so can tell The Man (and the Ex) to "Shove it!"

Best of luck to you!!
SiMi

[ZenMaster_Flash]

The venerable Tarzan has boiled it down to a fragrant syrup of truth.
The (example) results that he presented are strikingly similar to mine !

So ... you want to turn Pro ?

Calculate your total living expenses (without catastrophic events) for a full year.
Then calculate a (low-risk) cash bankroll. Keeping them separate and using either
spread sheets or old-fashioned ledgers, track your progress (at least) weekly.
Take an honest comprehensive and searching assessment of your performance
and the state of your finances and your physical/mental health continually.


Best of Luck. You'll need it. Bonne Chance. Bueno Suerte. Aces & Faces to Ya'

[Oneoffthecount]

I'm not as heroic as moses. Most of my daughter's education was earned with a nine to five job. My spouse also made good money, as I would define it and we both shared college expenses, approximately 20 k per year per kid. My oldest just graduated and my youngest has two years left, leaving me with about half the 20k, plus incidentals like health insurance, out of pocket expenses, cell phone and car insurance bills split as well but just for the next 18 months.

I made circa 125 k a year and after a year and a half of unemployment, even if anything I earn over the next 12 months only cuts part of my deficit per month, I'm a happy camper. At least its better than doing nothing and eating the whole 3600 per month. I am still trying to find a nine to five so that BJ will purely augment earnings, not be my source of income but its been bleak to say the least.

I want to thank each of you for your words of support, caution and wisdon. I don't even want to look at results for six months, I have a separate part of my budget set aside for those living expenses. I will reevaluate it after that. If I'm down dramatically, I'll look at some franchise type opportunities with the money I have left. I know there will be months in the mix with 10 k or possibly 20k losses. If I'm wonging in and playing two hands, I think I can reduce ROR to about one third kelly. As with all ventures in life, if we knew the result before we started life would be grand. Unfortunately, none of life works that way.

[mushin]

What you will find, generally speaking, the larger one's bankroll gets, the lower the risk the individual is prepared to accept. Full time pro and semi pro players tend to play at very low ror thresholds.

The nature of the beast is such that beginning players, and those slightly past that stage, need to accept higher risks to develop their bankrolls.

Long and short - full time pro player with no other source of income needs sufficient bankroll to withstand negative variance, grow their bankroll and pay living expense, and thus, is not likely to accept a significant risk.

The professional player needs a low risk of ruin in part because the fund for the bank are also a safety net if they have an extended period of no profit. While not ideal if they have a large bank they can draw funds from it to meet monetary obligations. A properly banked player also has an advantage in the sense that if they have dialed in their game they don't have to hope for the moon on every outing so that the can continue to play. While I am by no means a professional player I recently experienced a session where I never even had the opportunity to up my bet beyond 2 units. I walked away in 40 minutes with a few hundred dollars which is not a bad days work for many. The point being that sometimes if your a pro you can just pocket a win like that and be thank full for the free money.

In contrast when you are growing a bank or not at a point where you are taking funds out of your bank it is still a nice win but it is best allocated to adding to your bank vs adding it to your pocket. Also when in growth mode even small losses can be quite harmful to being able to continue playing at a competitive level. One big loss can set you back months because you will then have a very small number of big bets left and a come back gets exponentially harder.

It all comes down to the stakes. Even the difference between $10 minimum and $25.00 minimum is huge with respect to the amount of money you can walk with. To me the ROR you accept is not only about the risk of loosing your bank but also the amount you stand to win. That is the balance I think I have finally found. I am at a point where even if I don't get a chance to fire my max bets I still stand a chance of walking with (Or losing) a few hundred dollars though the normal ebb and flow of the game.

[Three]

I find that the lesser advantage counts tend to grind out the money and the max bet counts just add crazy variance. Sometimes you lose what you had ground out when you get to make some bets at the top of your spread, sometimes there is little difference and sometimes you add a lot to the grind. This is no doubt an example of perception and how quickly you hit each bet's n0 due to the frequency of betting each bet. Our perceptions are based on what we see most of the time. To us most of the time is a relatively short interval of time compared to the long run especially when considering relatively rare events.