IF you're building your bankroll I'd think that something like 3/4 Kelly is acceptable. If you've got a bankroll and are betting as much as you'd like then 1/4 Kelly with a plan to downsize when you lose 1/3 of your bankroll is appropriate.
Achievable, but watch your ass. Make sure your skill level is where you think it is. When you remove money from the roll also affects the equation. I could say more, but I think it important that you understand the variance roller coaster.Originally Posted by Oneoffthecount
Firstly -- what does "SR" mean. That is NOT a standard abbreviation.
Just because one poster reports doing very well for a few months has
no bearing on reality when compared to the experiences of others.
Stop compulsively relying on computer generated figures.
I presume that you understood that with a 6-1 spread I was referring to DD games.
In shoe games, depending on rules / penetration I generally employ 12-1 to 15-1.
The reality is that those of us who play with a STRONG count and play
risk aversively, and manage the casino personnel well, can earn a good living
as long as we are not GREEDY!
Just occurred to me reviewing the thread. Did the OP bankroll come from playing, or is from some form of saving. If it is it from saving, the comment of watch your ass should be amended to REALLY watch your ass. I think a good honest self assessment should be done before you pursue this particular course.
Freightman,
Good and Sound advice !
I have met quite a few players from this site, and a lot of them are actually "degenerates",
which is to say, they are Pathological Gamblers, whose (real) goal is to stop hemorrhaging money
without fully curtailing the activities associated with their gambling "addiction."
Flash, fair enough comments in a general sense - don't think that's the case here. After review of the thread, a couple of comments from the OP caught my eye, not in general content, but rather in the manner in which it was stated made me strongly consider that this was from saving.
I think of my own development, years ago when I perfected basic strategy, thinking that I had become invincible. After a few months, I developed a new aura of invincibility, hence, I couldn't have been invincible before, and so on and so forth, so I wasn't invincible before, because I am now. You likely had similar thoughts along the way - and so, I made a determination, right or wrong, that OP may have developed that first or second layer of invincibility, and is wagering hard earned cash accordingly. We both know that's dangerous thinking. The OP here stated stated 2 goals, which really don't fit the pattern of degenerate. I think it would be prudent to get a handle on how his career to date progress has evolved, and make decisions, if give advice accordingly.
Regardless, these are good questions to ask in any event.
An "acceptable" ROR is different for everyone. Generally, a hobbyist is comfortable with higher risk, while a professional is comfortable with little risk. However, that isn't set in stone. A hobbyist might not want to have a high ROR just because he's OK grinding out small EV and doesn't want to have to put more money into his BR in the event of a major downswing.
Your risk tolerance depends on you. If you have a major down-swing, are you comfortable getting a real/regular job and going back into the work force? I know some that would be perfectly OK doing that. However, I also know others that would not be able to get back into the routine of having a regular day-to-day job.
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
"RISK" is both objective -- in mathematics -- and subjective -- in psychology.
If one has anxiety following a substantial loss ~ risk tolerance is low.
If one can imagine going broke and having to find menial labor to create a bankroll risk tolerance is high.
I discussed the RISK issue with a young Poker Pro recently.I said to him (admittedly 'tongue in cheek'):
"Are you willing to sleep in a cardboard box under a highway overpass,
collecting discarded soda cans to cash in for deposits in order to survive?"
His response was ... "At my age I can do whatever I need to do."
I say ... "Such is the arrogance of youth".
Lately his six figure bankroll shrinkage has him considering an early retirement.
Last edited by ZenMaster_Flash; 08-23-2015 at 09:56 AM.
I appreciate all the responses. It seems you want to know more of my background and motivation for playing. Might be TMI but here goes. About seven years ago I became fascinated by card counting and started playing as a hobby with about a 4k bankroll. I was a Director level position, negotiating managed care contracts with hospitals, physicians and other ranges of health care providers making about a bit over $100 k. I was also a busy dad and gave it up both for time and because I realized (after purchasing CVCX) that I wasn't willing to devote the level of resources that would be needed, at that time in my life, in both time and money to even play a $15 dollar table on a regular basis. After purchasing CVCX, I realized the enormity of the swings. I hadn't seen the inside of a casino in a good five years, so I'd have to claim innocent to being a degenerate addict.
Fast forward to about 2 and a half years ago. Find out the wife has been involved in a very long term affair, needed to live with her until daughter two graduated high school. Put the house on the market and moved March 2014. One month later, get laid off, four months later have a heart attack and another six weeks to recover. At this point out of work for six months and over 55 years old. Continued to look for work another 8 months but have come to the realization that I may eventually find work through someone I know but my chances are minimal. My industry is continuing to consolidate, with insurance companies and health care continuing to merge, fewer and fewer jobs. Only thirty percent of people laid off over 50 find a job 18 months later and only half of those people work for more than half of their previous salary according to Forbes magazine. I have come to the conclusion that while I might find a job through someone who knows me the chances of securing employment at anything like my old grade and salary are pretty minimal
. I have about $300k in retirement, which I don't want to touch. I have about $180 k liquid when my divorce finalizes circa November 1. I have about $4000 in household expenses which are driven by about $1400 a month to support college and which goes away in another 18 months and about $600 a month from another revenue source, leaving me short about #3400 a month or $40,800 annually. The mean EV for my game is about 55k at 84000 rounds with a Ror of approximately 1.7 % (to my understanding a little less than half Kelly at 2%). The reason for my original question was I wasn’t sure if a full time pro would be comfortable with this Ror when relying upon his bankroll for a living. I think I need to increase EV while decreasing Ror. I want to increase EV to around $1.21 and am looking at going to a wonging strategy that will allow me to do that, or perhaps, a mix of wonging into the first shoe before playing my old strategy of play all but rabbit at -1.5%.
I’ve probably played around 300k hands on CVBJ. I moved to two hands at positive counts, which seems to have done a lot to stabilize my game at the advice of a senior member. After 56k hands I’m about 91k ahead, which is a ridiculously positive win rate of about 2.31% and which I know is meaningless, however, I have to believe that at this point I have some level of advantage, perhaps not a lot but some. The major reason my goal is to play 84000 hands on CVBJ prior to launching on November 1 is to get more of a feel for the swings involved. My worst was $17k down over about 6000 hands, so I have some sense of the volatility and try to picture not becoming despondent when I play for a month and lose that kind of money. Other than my experience playing basic and counting, I have just begun to play a little mostly as a way to scout at extremely low stakes. I am scouting all of my drivable casinos now. So the answer is saving is where my bankroll comes from.
To sum it up, I’m 56 and I’ve had a heart attack. I have raised my kids who will graduate without owing anyone a dime. I want to go on this adventure but I’m preparing myself as fully as I can before I embark, circa November 1.
Last, I copied Sr from CVCX’s rule set field, I’ve seen it as LS on scouting reports. My apologies to DS and Flash, glad you were able to discern the intent, thanks for educating me to the standard acronym. Flash, the answer to your question of “who on this site wouldn’t know to use the appropriate abbreviation” is a guy who is new and admits he has a lot to learn. I appreciate your comments, even when they do feel slightly like using a brillo pad for a loofah. DS, this post was spell checked prior to submitting. Go ahead, do your worst!
Oneoff
I'm not a bad player... I just play cover on every hand!
Oneoffthecount, first let me say that I can appreciate the thought and preparation you are putting in before jumping into this 'adventure'.
Now let me express my concerns.
1). I haven't heard any kind of contingency plan for if things doesn't go as you hope?
2) I suspect if things went into the toilet, you would pull the plug far earlier, before going through all of that 100K, which means you aren't REALLY playing to a 100k BR. I think you need to figure out what BR you are REALLY playing to.
3) The largest loss you experienced in your small sample size, simulation trial run was 17k and that seems well within some sort of level that you might be able to tolerate, but let me tell you from experience, it's a little different when you are actually going through the situation and COMPOUNDING it by taking living expenses from your BR as well. What if you hit a negative run that eats 20-25% of your bankroll over several months plus you need to take another 15-20k out in expenses over that time. You
are actually playing to a much higher RoR than you think and mentally it can be devastating.
I can't speak for other professional players, but 1.7% RoR would not be low enough for me, in part because of the situation I just laid out. Taking expenses out WHILE going through a negative run, is problematic mentally. I can assure you that you are not prepared for that. 1.7% might work for a short time, as you continued to build a BR and reduce RoR, but in your situation, with heavy expenses, it is very VERY problematic.
For these reasons, I have often said that there are two circumstances best suited for someone attempting this type of 'adventure'. One is a younger, single person with minimal expenses and responsibilities and the second is a retired person, who's kids are grown (and through college) that has reduced their expenses and responsibilities. The absolute best scenario is a retired person with some retirement income, so he/she only needs to supplement. You are close to that second circumstance, but unfortunately with 18 months of college tuition left, still miles away.
My advice is that you need to reduce your expenses before embarking on this adventure. I'd also like to see more of a contingency plan. In your situation, the reducing expenses probably means, putting this 'adventure' off for 18 months. I realize you are in a bad situation as far as age and finding new employment. But if you can find something, even at a lessor salary to hold you over for the next 18 months, while you reduce expenses and take that time to get yourself really healthy, you would be in a much better position, with a much better chance of success.
My best to you whatever you decide.
Take $25200, (18 months x 1400), less whatever the ex wife is willing to kick into the education pool, less the $600 revenue source, and that reduces living expenses to about 2k per month. Leaves you with about 155k, not including retirement funds. If the ex is still with the new schtupp, maybe he can be shamed into contributing as well.
As previously considered, OP has 2 clear goals.
Now, you played low stakes before, have practiced on a simulator, and essentially are covered in ring rust, plus the fact that it sounds like your card counting is primarily limited to basic strategy, without a real knowledge, or at least practical experience with index play.
Get rid of the ring rust now, get used to counting in a real setting, play low stakes for now and don't worry about setting the world on fire. Get rid of the rust, and get some new confidence now. Read some books, determine the games you can play with the hours you can play them. Just take baby steps.
Don't think your sims have considered living expenses, so they may be considered as meaningless, and you should redo them. You may want to revise your sims so that you not fully covering expense, which means that your 155k may well be diluted further. You'll quickly figure out your tolerance to risk under these new scenarios. Good luck.
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