OK, full time guys. I don't want to make this complex. I realize level of risk is an individual decision and dependent upon your individual circumstances, but if you are doing this for a living as a solo player, what is your threshold for pain in terms of the RoR you are willing to play to increase your EV.
Oneoff
I'm not a bad player... I just play cover on every hand!
What you will find, generally speaking, the larger one's bankroll gets, the lower the risk the individual is prepared to accept. Full time pro and semi pro players tend to play at very low ror thresholds.Originally Posted by Oneoffthecount
The nature of the beast is such that beginning players, and those slightly past that stage, need to accept higher risks to develop their bankrolls.
Long and short - full time pro player with no other source of income needs sufficient bankroll to withstand negative variance, grow their bankroll and pay living expense, and thus, is not likely to accept a significant risk.
The professional player needs a low risk of ruin in part because the fund for the bank are also a safety net if they have an extended period of no profit. While not ideal if they have a large bank they can draw funds from it to meet monetary obligations. A properly banked player also has an advantage in the sense that if they have dialed in their game they don't have to hope for the moon on every outing so that the can continue to play. While I am by no means a professional player I recently experienced a session where I never even had the opportunity to up my bet beyond 2 units. I walked away in 40 minutes with a few hundred dollars which is not a bad days work for many. The point being that sometimes if your a pro you can just pocket a win like that and be thank full for the free money.
In contrast when you are growing a bank or not at a point where you are taking funds out of your bank it is still a nice win but it is best allocated to adding to your bank vs adding it to your pocket. Also when in growth mode even small losses can be quite harmful to being able to continue playing at a competitive level. One big loss can set you back months because you will then have a very small number of big bets left and a come back gets exponentially harder.
It all comes down to the stakes. Even the difference between $10 minimum and $25.00 minimum is huge with respect to the amount of money you can walk with. To me the ROR you accept is not only about the risk of loosing your bank but also the amount you stand to win. That is the balance I think I have finally found. I am at a point where even if I don't get a chance to fire my max bets I still stand a chance of walking with (Or losing) a few hundred dollars though the normal ebb and flow of the game.
Freightman, I'm in a position of starting out with a moderate bankroll. I have some side income but it won't coer all of my bills. I ideally I'd like to make at least 60k with a 70k bankroll. Looking for a buck a hand EVish. I can play a 25 min at a .73 per hand EV with 20 to 1 spread and a .3% ROR or a 50 min at a 16 spread with a $1.17 EV per hand and a 6% Ror. I'm thinking the pros you are talking about probably play less than a 1% EV and thinking my threshold is aruond two to tw and a half percent, so I will water down the $50 min ramp. I don't think I can get away with more than a 20 to 1 spread on the 25.
My question is if you want full time and have this amount for a bankroll, what is the sweet spot for most full time players. If I grow bankroll my risk will go down but as a starting point hoping to keep it below three percent or soish. Thre question is could you define significant risk in terms of a percentage RoR?
Oneoff
I'm not a bad player... I just play cover on every hand!
A couple of parts of the equation not yet known that must be answered before a calculation is made. Firstly, confirm your main game, rules, decks, deck pen etc. secondly, what amount of money are u diverting from bankroll, winnings or otherwise, to pay household bills.
Oneoffthecount,
you said ...
"I don't think I can get away with more than a 20 to 1 spread on the 25"
Of course you cannot, and you cannot get away with 10-1 either, unless the game is dreadful.
Fairly decent games, ordinarily (in most cases), have "chokepoints" for green bettors of 6-1.
Y M M V
Aces and Faces to Ya'. You will NOT last.
Flash, there are definitely shoe games where you can go 20 to 1 in green. You can't do it for a whole shift, but I've back-counted green all over the strip and never had an issue.
I've done 19 to 1 on pitch, too. A lot of $5 games won't pay attention until $100 goes on the felt.
The Cash Cow.
Freightman,
you said:
" ... faith provides a strong moral center"
The above is slightly offensive, but more so, it is inappropriate on this forum.
If you want to imagine that morality is a product of organized religion do so
elsewhere.
Faith is a product, among other things, of upbringing. I am as straight as an arrow, with a strong moral compass, not necessarily created from a religious background (though certainly traditional in terms of my background)
So, if we happen to meet , and you need a ride with a couple of individual close by, and your choice is the straight as an arrow moral upright citizen vs. the alcoholic drug addicted degenerate gambler, in need of a fix - who would you accept a ride from. Please don't tell me that morality is not relavent - and how could it not be.
Freightman-
I play hi lo. Average penn 77%. H17, DAS, RAS, SR. Current ramp is TC 0 less, 25; TC 1 2 x 50, TC 2 2 x 100, TC 3 2x200, TC 4 above 250. That generates a .63 per hand EV. Diverting $3400 per month, will go down in one year when my last daughter finishes college. Plan is to play about 1200 hrs a year, 84000 hands at 80 hands per hour. BR 70k. Let me know what else you need.
Flash- I appreciate your input. I don't know how anyone could do this on an EV generated by a 6 to 1 spread and need you to enlighten me. If a six to one or possibly a ten to one spread is your perception of max tolerance, how can you generate enough ev to make it worth your while? I read recently a post from Cloudstreet and it looked like he had a similar ramp to mine but didn't seem to get backed off and made 32k in nine months? Once again, I respect you as a senior player and I'm just trying to figure out how you make it work at those types of spreads?
Oneoff
I'm not a bad player... I just play cover on every hand!
"I play hi lo. Average penn [pen] 77%. H17, DAS, RAS [RSA?], SR. Current ramp is TC 0 less, 25; TC 1 2 x 50, TC 2 2 x 100, TC 3 2x200, TC 4 above 250 [You don't mean that. You mean 2 x 250, no? Should be 2 x 300, anyway!]. That generates a .63 per hand EV. Diverting $3400 per month, will go down in one year when my last daughter finishes college. Plan is to play about 1200 hrs a year, 84000 hands at 80 [70?] hands per hour [Hmm. Hope you count more accurately!]. BR 70k. Let me know what else you need."
Don
" ... faith provides a STRONG moral center"
"I beg to differ."
It provides a WEAK "moral center" because it is derivative of an external source;
that of religious notions that depend on "faith", the enemy of reason and logic.
I depend upon my internal thought structure should I need to think about my actions.
I do not cheat, steal, do violence, lie without cause, etc. I KNOW that certain actions
are wrong, completely irrespective of what anyone may think or say to the contrary.
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