Acceptable RoR

[Oneoffthecount]

OK, full time guys. I don't want to make this complex. I realize level of risk is an individual decision and dependent upon your individual circumstances, but if you are doing this for a living as a solo player, what is your threshold for pain in terms of the RoR you are willing to play to increase your EV.

[Freightman]

OK, full time guys. I don't want to make this complex. I realize level of risk is an individual decision and dependent upon your individual circumstances, but if you are doing this for a living as a solo player, what is your threshold for pain in terms of the RoR you are willing to play to increase your EV.

What you will find, generally speaking, the larger one's bankroll gets, the lower the risk the individual is prepared to accept. Full time pro and semi pro players tend to play at very low ror thresholds.

The nature of the beast is such that beginning players, and those slightly past that stage, need to accept higher risks to develop their bankrolls.

Long and short - full time pro player with no other source of income needs sufficient bankroll to withstand negative variance, grow their bankroll and pay living expense, and thus, is not likely to accept a significant risk.

[Oneoffthecount]

Freightman, I'm in a position of starting out with a moderate bankroll. I have some side income but it won't coer all of my bills. I ideally I'd like to make at least 60k with a 70k bankroll. Looking for a buck a hand EVish. I can play a 25 min at a .73 per hand EV with 20 to 1 spread and a .3% ROR or a 50 min at a 16 spread with a $1.17 EV per hand and a 6% Ror. I'm thinking the pros you are talking about probably play less than a 1% EV and thinking my threshold is aruond two to tw and a half percent, so I will water down the $50 min ramp. I don't think I can get away with more than a 20 to 1 spread on the 25.

My question is if you want full time and have this amount for a bankroll, what is the sweet spot for most full time players. If I grow bankroll my risk will go down but as a starting point hoping to keep it below three percent or soish. Thre question is could you define significant risk in terms of a percentage RoR?

[Freightman]

Freightman, I'm in a position of starting out with a moderate bankroll. I have some side income but it won't coer all of my bills. I ideally I'd like to make at least 60k with a 70k bankroll. Looking for a buck a hand EVish. I can play a 25 min at a .73 per hand EV with 20 to 1 spread and a .3% ROR or a 50 min at a 16 spread with a $1.17 EV per hand and a 6% Ror. I'm thinking the pros you are talking about probably play less than a 1% EV and thinking my threshold is aruond two to tw and a half percent, so I will water down the $50 min ramp. I don't think I can get away with more than a 20 to 1 spread on the 25.

My question is if you want full time and have this amount for a bankroll, what is the sweet spot for most full time players. If I grow bankroll my risk will go down but as a starting point hoping to keep it below three percent or soish. Thre question is could you define significant risk in terms of a percentage RoR?

A couple of parts of the equation not yet known that must be answered before a calculation is made. Firstly, confirm your main game, rules, decks, deck pen etc. secondly, what amount of money are u diverting from bankroll, winnings or otherwise, to pay household bills.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Oneoffthecount,

you said ...

"I don't think I can get away with more than a 20 to 1 spread on the 25"

Of course you cannot, and you cannot get away with 10-1 either, unless the game is dreadful.

Fairly decent games, ordinarily (in most cases), have "chokepoints" for green bettors of 6-1.

Y M M V

Aces and Faces to Ya'. You will NOT last.

[moo321]

I play half-Kelly. If I was playing for a living, it would probably be 1/3 or 1/4 Kelly.

[moo321]

Flash, there are definitely shoe games where you can go 20 to 1 in green. You can't do it for a whole shift, but I've back-counted green all over the strip and never had an issue.

I've done 19 to 1 on pitch, too. A lot of $5 games won't pay attention until $100 goes on the felt.

[Oneoffthecount]

Freightman-

I play hi lo. Average penn 77%. H17, DAS, RAS, SR. Current ramp is TC 0 less, 25; TC 1 2 x 50, TC 2 2 x 100, TC 3 2x200, TC 4 above 250. That generates a .63 per hand EV. Diverting $3400 per month, will go down in one year when my last daughter finishes college. Plan is to play about 1200 hrs a year, 84000 hands at 80 hands per hour. BR 70k. Let me know what else you need.

Flash- I appreciate your input. I don't know how anyone could do this on an EV generated by a 6 to 1 spread and need you to enlighten me. If a six to one or possibly a ten to one spread is your perception of max tolerance, how can you generate enough ev to make it worth your while? I read recently a post from Cloudstreet and it looked like he had a similar ramp to mine but didn't seem to get backed off and made 32k in nine months? Once again, I respect you as a senior player and I'm just trying to figure out how you make it work at those types of spreads?

[DSchles]

"I play hi lo. Average penn [pen] 77%. H17, DAS, RAS [RSA?], SR. Current ramp is TC 0 less, 25; TC 1 2 x 50, TC 2 2 x 100, TC 3 2x200, TC 4 above 250 [You don't mean that. You mean 2 x 250, no? Should be 2 x 300, anyway!]. That generates a .63 per hand EV. Diverting $3400 per month, will go down in one year when my last daughter finishes college. Plan is to play about 1200 hrs a year, 84000 hands at 80 [70?] hands per hour [Hmm. Hope you count more accurately! ]. BR 70k. Let me know what else you need."

Don

[Freightman]

Lllll
L[QUOTE=Oneoffthecount;169214]Freightman-

I play hi lo. Average penn 77%. H17, DAS, RAS, SR. Current ramp is TC 0 less, 25; TC 1 2 x 50, TC 2 2 x 100, TC 3 2x200, TC 4 above 250. That generates a .63 per hand EV. Diverting $3400 per month, will go down in one year when my last daughter finishes college. Plan is to play about 1200 hrs a year, 84000 hands at 80 hands per hour. BR 70k. Let me know what else you need.

Flash- I appreciate your input. I don't know how anyone could do this on an EV generated by a 6 to 1 spread and need you to enlighten me. If a six to one or possibly a ten to one spread is your perception of max tolerance, how can you generate enough ev to make it worth your while? I read recently a post from Cloudstreet and it looked like he had a similar ramp to mine but didn't seem to get backed off and made 32k in nine months? Once again, I respect you as a senior player and I'm just trying to figure out how you make it work at those types of spreads?[/QUOTE

Out for coffee right now - will give a better look later, but a couple of quick thoughts. Rules overall, not bad, excluding those that bark to much on H17, Pen is so so, 3400 x 12 months is to big a bite to take out, and will not allow for bankroll growth, in fact, likely to shrink - Those school expenses may not be needed for a 12 month year, and further, daughters subsidy would account for how much if the 3400 per month and for how long. Frankly, I see some issues here from a play all perspective. Depending on tables available, wonging might be an approach. If not available, play all could be a crap shoot. As I said, I'll have a better look later.one other thing, have a good look at that jump from 1x25 to 2x50. That looks like something off of a.CVCX sim. If so, CVCX floors and optimizes ramps based on true count bucket - so - 2x50 at TC 1.0 is break even essentially trading variance with the house, but TC 1.5 you would have a clear, albeit slight advantage.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

I apologize for my dumb-ass post below. Moo321 is correct re: shoe games.

For some reason I was thinking that the O.P. was referring solely to DD games.

Had that been the case, I'd not be apologizing at all.

[Freightman]

I apologize for my dumb-ass post below. Moo321 is correct re: shoe games.

For some reason I was thinking that the O.P. was referring solely to DD games.

Had that been the case, I'd not be apologizing at all.

This is actually pretty funny in the sense that I used to argue both sides of the argument with the same guy at different times. Ironically, I won both viewpoints, even when arguing the wrong position

[Oneoffthecount]

Thanks this OP was shaking in his boots thinking of trying to make it on a six to one spread. AS D.S. pointed out my communication skills leave something to be desired. Doing the best I can and appreciate your input Flash.