10k Hail Marry Roll

[KJ]

You are far to sensitive - and for the record, I don't support one of you over the other with respect to theoretical commentary. However, you have displayed a series of non stop hissy fits. Quit, don't quit, I really don't give a shit, but just do what you say you are going to do. Now - let's be frank - you don't like TThree, and just to confirm my prior comments - I really don't give a shit on that either, however , you made a point to participate on a very recent, and I think, still current thread with regards to your declared expertise on a particular matter. Fine, no problem. This comment to TThree was nothing more than a KJ hissy fit cheap shot directed to someone who is diametrically opposite to you in philosophy. In other words, you have a hardon for this guy. I should have given you a helpful rating on that post, since that concept appears important to you, however, I digress.

Now, this post I am responding to is the third time that you have mentioned my getting bounced from the other site, so perhaps it's time that we address that issue. No, dont think either Al or Norm would appreciate it, and believe me when I say, that I would speak my mind - so, Only to make a point, without getting into it - my right to freedom of religion, speech, where and how I live do not extend to my supposed rights to refer to you as a pedophile or sexual deviant, to eat shit and die, or to go masterbate in a field. There are those on the other site who believe it their God given right to say all of these things, to slander and defame, without fear of retribution. I, for one, take exception to that bullshit. Board admin, apparently does not.

No, I am not going to be frank. I don't even know who Frank is??

Why would someone go to a field to masterbate?? What's wrong with sitting in front of the computer like everyone else?

And finally, if you are going to refer to YOUR right to freedom of speech, how about extending me the same courtesy. This is now the fifth time that you have suggested that I should leave the site and stop posting. That is not your call. I'll participate when I want and as much as I want, unless Norm asks me not to, whether you approve or not.

[Freightman]

No, I am not going to be frank. I don't even know who Frank is??
The expression was - let's be frank - as in direct, candid, forthright. Think that went over your head.

Why would someone go to a field to masterbate??
Don't know, go ask the asshole who first posted that, if I recall correctly, to Paranoid Android?

What's wrong with sitting in front of the computer like everyone else
If you prefer to masterbate in front of a computer, well, I guess your preferences are your business.

And finally, if you are going to refer to YOUR right to freedom of speech, how about extending me the same courtesy.
How have I not?

This is now the fifth time that you have suggested that I should leave the site and stop posting. That is not your call.
Don't think I've suggested a single time that you discontinue posting. - in fact, I've commented favourably on your contributions. On the other hand, you have announced numerous times that you were done with the board, and would no longer post. I'll say it again - if you want to keep credibility, then quit - if you want to continue, as numerous people seem to prefer, then let bygones be bygones and start posting - or, if you're going to cherry pick and comment only on those topics to which you have declared expertise, fine, but dont cherry pick with cheap shots - makes you look like a crybaby.


I'll participate when I want and as much as I want, unless Norm asks me not to, whether you approve or not.

My comments are immediately below yours.

[KJ]

Define "modern game".

I don't feel like this is a serious question, Jab. You have been around long enough to know the difference between the generic mediocre type games of 2015 at most locations, and better games of 20+, even 15 or 10 years ago.

There is a whole different mentality in how a player needs to attack these games. Without wanting to go back into any kind of 'count debate', things like higher level counts are much less important and aggressively attacking the games with things like ramping up quicker and aggressively and ramping up by much more than your minimum wager, as well as aggressively getting out of at least some of the negative counts are far and away more important.

It's a different game than just 10, 15 years ago, with higher IHA's, more -EV counts and fewer +EV count and needs to be attacked differently. A simple count, but much more aggressive approach is the way to go in 2015.

[Cougfan]

This response is to the OP. Hopefully this makes sense.

I don't know that you are really even playing with a "bankroll" per se. What I mean is that the usual definition of a "bankroll" is the amount of loss that would cause you to stop playing the game. ROR calculations, by necessity, include a concept of "ruin" where your loss causes you to stop playing. In your case, it sounds like the $10K is more akin to something else, since it can be easily replenished. It is more like a trip BR, or a team BR.

I am in a similar situation as you. I have a fairly sizeable BR of designated funds (roughly $250K at the moment), and can also add funds from my day job. I have these funds partly in cash, but also in other investments I can liquidate fairly easily if needed (CD's, stocks, etc). I have recently been playing around with some sims looking at my AP play as a investment option versus a traditional BR / ROR perspective. For this, I assume that I am going to dedicate an amount, say $100K to AP play and play with that amount for up to 300 hours (roughly what I play in a year). I have a win threshold of $100K and a loss threshold of $100K, and I set a betting approach such that there is a 95%+ likelihood of hitting one of those thresholds within my 300 hour time frame. I am trying to get to a situation where the likelihood of success (+$100K) is significantly greater than the likelihood of failure (-$100K). Based on my recent sims, I am estimating an approximately 80% chance of success, 15% chance of failure, and a 5% chance of some other result (win or lose less than $100K).

It's really more similar to what you would do with a team bankroll, only that I am a one-person team. Worst case, I lose $100K which I can replenish. Best case, I win $100K, and then start a new "team bank". Compared to other investment options, this one is pretty attractive, even considering the personal time investment involved.

Another way of approaching this same thing would be to set a win goal that was 2X the amount of your loss goal and then shoot for a betting schema that gives you a 50/50 chance of hitting either result within a reasonable period of time. In my example, it might be something like a 48% chance of winning $100K, and a 48% chance of losing $50K, with a 4% chance of some other result between the two after, say, 300 hours of play.

CBJN is a great tool for these types of analyses.

[Orangechip2]

Wow, that's the good shit there Cougman. I will elaborate more once I get off of work .

[Orangechip2]

White rabbit you describe works well. I would think you need more of a spread. Wonging in is better suited to flat betting or the mild ramp you suggest than white rabbit. You want to get the money out in a deeply dealt shoe game when that big advantage happens. The count can stay near neutral for a long time. I think your idea is heading in the right direction but not the specific bets you mentioned. I am guessing $100 table NMSE . A good count and a 1 to 6 spread will do it for S17. Like 1x100 to 2x450. I would be leery of anything spread less especially if it isn't H17. The pen makes it worth the effort but you don't want the exposure without the payday.

Ouch. 100x1 to 450x2 would be deadly. Makes sense though. As rolling said, this may get me in trouble with such a lower hourly and high variance . As far as a good count with 1-6, considering I wont have to do much brain work with my ramp I would use a level 2 count.

[zergy]

I didn't really understand it, particularly this:

As for adding winnings, I will add wins at 35% per winning session / losing sessions I don't add until I'm 60% down from starting roll.

If this means you add only part (35%) of your wins to your bank and your bank eats all of your losses I would think going down 60% at some point is near certain.

It sounds to me like you just add more whenever you need it and play at whatever level you are comfortable. That is pretty much what I do. It seems like you are making it too complicated. I don't think the term "bankroll" really applies to us part time players with other sources of income. Unless losing it has real consequence, whatever you call your "bankroll" isn't very meaningful.

Instead I think "how much cash should I have now?" and "how much should I deposit/withdraw?" Sub-questions: How much will I be playing in the next month? How much cash I am comfortable with at my house/bank box/etc? Do I have any windfalls/big expenses coming up? What else can I do with this extra cash now? Is there any chance this deposit will force me to stop play for awhile?

[RS]

Like zergy alluded to...if you're a part-time player and have other sources of income, ie: you count cards more as a hobby / for fun, and not a main form of income....you really don't need a huge bankroll. When you walk into a casino to play, you just need enough $$$ on hand for a session. Or rather, if your swings are around $1K per hour and you plan on playing for a couple hours....you don't need a $50K bankroll like a pro would...you would just need like $5K, enough to play a session. If you can add $100 to your BR every week [from day-job]...then this isn't going to work, at least not at that level. If you can add $1K/week from your day job, then you don't gotta wait and save up $30-50K for a BR....just grab the $5K and get to it.