Worst bj

[RS]

I am getting very worried about the future of blackjack! Anyone have anything to make me feel more optimistic??!@

Like Tthree has said before, when casinos tighten up on BJ conditions, card-counters (should) shift to other tactics of AP. These other tactics are almost always much stronger (more EV), less variance, and a shorter N0 [long run]. If you plan on playing BJ until you die, well....good luck!

[mofungoo]

Chill everyone. This thread was speculating the future of BJ based on continually deteriorating conditions. Given that assumption as conditions deteriorate the gain from more complex approaches become a higher and higher percentage of your EV. Ay some point the gain becomes worth it and further down the line it becomes necessary.

So you're saying you can beat that 8D 6:5 game mentioned in post 1 with your method? How are your results so far?

[ZeeBabar]

So you have a study based on old rules that says the gain of switching to Hiopt 2/ASC from Hilo is 14-20% back counting and 18-20+% play all in BJA3 p 172. As rules deteriorate the EV shrinks but the monetary gain stays the same making the percentage gain continue to increase. If you turned your nose up at 15-20% gain at some point the percentage gain will get high enough that you consider it significant.

I am also stating that the purchase of the very best equipment by a run of the mill tennis or golf player is not going to make him a successful pro. My point s that only the very experienced, the ones who are already very good will gain some small percentage. The majority will regret buying the best equipment because they just do not have the game. You should be looking at how well you have mastered all other aspects of BJ, from optimal betting and spreading, game selection, indices, when to play 1 or 2 hands and more. A better count will not overcome flaws in your game just as a better golf club will make little difference to a fledgling golf player.

finally, there are issues in learning, concentration and fatigue when you switch counts. It's like learning another language. It does not come easy and it may not be necessary.

KJ was right about pushing counts and hurting players. It's like some of you are interested in selling a graduate level book to a high school dropout.

[Marvin]

One potential benefit of deteriorating conditions, assuming that pit critters consider the conditions unbeatable (6:5, half shoe, etc), is that if you can figure out a way to beat the game (usually involving something other than counting), you can potentially take a lot more out of the game.
The really good count games tend to be watched closely, at least in the US.

[Cougfan]

I personally know other AP's who use 2 and 3 level counts, as well as specialized counts for specific situations. They are good people and they are doing well at the game.

For me, using a 2 or 3 level count takes too much away from other, more lucrative aspects of my game. I have experimented with both and find that, for me, the approach I am using results in the highest win rate, for me. That approach includes the use of a 1 level count.

To each their own. Find the approach that works best for you. Your count system is one very small part of that overall approach.

[mofungoo]

Wow, you really need to work on reading comprehension. Try reading my short post over a few times slowly looking up the words you don't understand in the dictionary. Then get back to me. I posted a simple mathematical truth that can't be denied. Try and see if reading post #14 helps if you are mathematically challenged.

Wow, I just asked a question. So The answer is no, then?

As far as post 14, your numbers are inaccurate as far as conditions I am seeing. For 6D, S17, DAS, 5/6, HO2 was ahead of Hilo by 6% to !4% depending on spread, play all or wong. The game I quoted is the best game available at multiple locations in my area with less than a $100 table minimum.

[moo321]

Back to the actual question, yes, conditions are deteriorating in some places. There are also a lot more opportunities, and a lot more good information on those opportunities, than ever before. 50 years ago, they had single deck dealt to the last card. But, did we have software to generate index plays in a few hours? Did we know how to bet optimally? Did we have internet forums to ask questions and learn the game? Did we know what our hourly rate was?

Some things have gotten worse. But I can rattle off 5-6 places all over the country where I can lay down games with SCOREs in excess of 100 and play a whole shift without incident. It all depends on perspective.

[mofungoo]

The numbers are from Don's book using optimal spreads for both systems

I used betting ramps usable in the casino (see title of thread referring to worst bj conditions in casinos). Good luck laying a $368 optimal bet, a 4 color barberpole, in a casino for long.

[RS]

I think you are missing the point.

Agree -- I have no idea what mofungoo's point was in relation to the discussion.

[mofungoo]

I think you are missing the point. A far comparison is both with optimal spreads etc as described earlier. That shows which is better and by what.

I am not interested in optimal spreads for use in the casinos, the reason for which you would know if you actually played AP blackjack in one, which I am beginning to doubt greatly.

[mofungoo]

I was thinking the same thing about you. At least wether you actually profit at it. Not understanding the full value of gains in comparisons mean you are probably making bad decisions based on your comparisons. I really don't care what anybody thinks. I do what I do and make a lot of money at it. I keep refining my new system and seeing the increase in the casino. I have put all I write about into practice and have grown my BR from a modest one into a large one in a short time. If you have to make a fictitious character to my moniker to make you feel better about your experiences or because you can't argue a decent argument so be it.

I proved that, for 6D, S17, DAS, 5/6 HO2 bests Hilo by 6-14%. Of course, both systems played to a 10K BR, 13.5% ROR, per SCORE. As penetration is reduced, the differences between counts narrows. The thread is about worsening casino conditions, not "what's the best count?"

[ZeeBabar]

These discussions with percentages thrown about assumes perfect play. The reality is that no one should be thinking about switching counts until they have perfected the count they play with. If you are not a seasoned pro playing optimally, you are better off staying with your count and improving your knowledge and experience of BJ. Changing gear will not make you a better player while a very good player may get better with better gear.

its like a 5'5" recreational basketball player thinking he will become a pro if he starts buying better sneakers.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

What is almost ignored is that the gain from moving to H.O. II
from Hi-Lo is more than what has been quoted below. That is
because you MUST Side Count Aces with H.O. II, otherwise it
is severely weakened.

Indeed in DD games, I also Side-Count 7's.