"Dream Session" - What happened?

[Bigdaddy]

I guess if I had been doing this long enough, the results from last night's session wouldn't surprise me....

I'm sitting at the high-limit DD game at my local store and all of a sudden that magical window opens up. Its me heads up against the dealer (a fast one) and she sets the cut card at less than a quarter of deck! I'm thinking get ready to break out some cash and buckle up - it's gonna be a wild ride.

Over the course of the next 90 minutes she goes through maybe 10 shoes (150 hands or so) all at the same penetration (85 - 90%). The count never goes over +2 and I never played more than 2 units. I played through a lot of negative counts - no point in Wonging out since I'm the only player and it's stupidly deep pen anyway. I ended up taking a beating for the session - about a 20 unit loss from just grinding minimum bets.

I'm still shaking my head - What are the chances of no max bet opportunities given this dream setup?

[Avincow]

I can't tell you the probability of no max betting opportunities in 10 shoes,but I can say that 20 unit loss isn't too bad. Such a loss is very frequent in my experience.

[SiMi]

Hi, BD!

Sorry you didn't get a better outcome. I'm not sure of the exact mathematical answer to your question but I will think about it some more and let you know if I come up with anything solid.

In the meantime, as I read your post, I was thinking that, roughly speaking, if we look at "90 minute sessions", we might expect that OVERALL they would show a TC of ZERO. If the cards are random, over time, the TC should ALWAYS move toward zero, shouldn't it?

As CCers, we are looking for those OUTLIERS (unusual sessions) when the TC goes positive. In general, I think one might expect as many negative TC 90 minute sessions as positive TC sessions and it seems there should also be as many neutral TC 90 minute sessions. The key is simply that you're betting more in the positive TC times and less (or nothing) in the neutral and negative TC times, WHENEVER they occur.

I know when I practice or play, I get MANY shoes where the TC doesn't move much. That's been happening a lot to me lately. Just randomness, I guess...

Not sure that's right but at least it might stir some thoughts.

Hang in there!
SiMi

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Your chances through 10 shuffles ?

(We know that you did not mean "shoes")

Very high !

[Three]

Most of my best opportunities had little chance to bet big. Some even had a small loss.

[Bigdaddy]

Your chances through 10 shuffles ?

(We know that you did not mean "shoes")

Very high !

Yes - 10 shuffles at 90% pen - it was a pitch game. So you're saying the chances of not seeing any high counts is high? I thought that with such deep pen that I should have seen at least a little action at a high count.