Hi Girls and Boys!
At what point of the game would you leave the table with profit? When you are ahead 30 units or 45 units? When?
Thank you
ferenc11,
There is NO rational reason why a "stop-win" ~ OR ~ a "stop-loss" should be implemented,
based upon how much you are ahead or behind. If it is based on factors, like perceived heat,
fatigue, excessive cumulative winnings, overtly hostile employees, etc. that is a different topic.
If all playing shoes then would leave when I had been there about an hour regardless of win/loss or if my win is nearing 10K and I don't want a currency transaction or if the PB picked up phone to call surveillance on me (I think) but not having to do with units won or lost (unless on team with session loss limit).
The objective is to get in as many round as possible and generate positive ev. With proper bankroll, the win /loss will take care of itself.
Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!
There are several approaches you can use and in fact you may decide to use more than one.
The biggest factor I look at is how aggressively I was able to spread. If I am able to fire off many max bets then I figure that I had better start planning my exit. The kicker is it depends partly on the shoe. If I am able to parley my bets to get higher and hold the upper bet ramp for a while then I will consider that to not have been showing my spread too much. If however I feel that my bets strongly correlated to the count I will consider an exit after in the very near future. On the flip side there are also times were I am stopping by my local on the way home from work or an appointment and just want to get some time in. In these cases my exit point is based mainly on the time I have available. However I will sometimes leave even earlier if I have not not spent much time playing and I have had a nice winning streak in a shoe. In these situations i'm not really using a "stop-win" but rather just cashing in on my time.
One thing I do look at however is if I am within +/- 3x my buy in. This is not really a stop loss or a stop win but If I feel that I have executed well and I am +/- 3 x my buy in I don't feel bad if I leave a looser. I am always happy if I leave in the positive. One thing I should point out is that approach greatly depends on having your bet ramp dialed into you buy in amount. If you are buying in for $200.00 and betting $100 then this would not work. I think a change within +/- 36 minimum bets works rather well. I use this on those sessions where play has been a grind and for the most part I have not been able to get a good bet spread out but I'm not limited to time.
One big tip. Try to never leave in a hot shoe. That is the time to make your money and continue to push for more wins. Don't get attached to the fact that you are up $600 in the last 5 minutes and run with the money and you could possibly double that $600 in a few hands. Granted you might drop back down but what good is counting if you choose to not even place a minimum table bet when you have an advantage. Also don't use my example of -3x your buy in as an exit point if the count is still in your favor. You need to get those bets out there. A few good big bets and you can reverse and come out ahead.
Here are reasons to leave the table:
1) You lost a lot early and made a lot back. Cachet and log a loss being elated you only lost a little and tip the dealer as you leave for "allowing you" a nice comeback.
2) You showed your supermax bet. Leave win or lose when your advantage wanes.
3) You perceive heat.
4) You win is getting too large for the tolerance of the casino.
5) The conditions have plummeted like crowding or pen going to hell. The latter can be an indication of heat. If it goes to ridiculously bad you have to make the call as to whether or not it is a test. If it is you confirm their suspicions by leaving. If not it is time to go.
6) You are getting tired or need something to eat. Playing too long can be a cause for anyone to lose. You need to eat and your brain has a certain biorhythm where it takes a siesta for an hour or so a few times a day. Knowing when this occurs and avoiding those times will save a lot of money. You also need sleep. Playing tired will cost you a bundle.
7) Problems with players or staff at the table. It is an important AP skill to be able to handle these as they come but on rare occasions the best course of action is to leave the table.
All the points have been covered so I just want to add that your departure point, amount you won and your aggression varies depending on where you play. If, like me, you have only 1 local casino where you play several times a week, then it's often best to keep your win much smaller and leave (so the win is forgotten or acceptable. They know me as someone who plays for fun, is not trying to make a living off of the casino). I also play each month at the same 2-3 other casinos a 100 miles from home. They know me too and I play rated so I let them know early in my session that I am there while my wife is at the mall, that I have 2-3 hours and then that is what I stick to. Course, at the regular casinos, I never try to win too much. If i am ahead $1k, I leave saying as I color up that I got to go, be back, etc. On gambling trips outside my area, the others have covered it well.
Most casinos have a certain threshold where someone has to file a report to someone else regarding the likelihood of a win above some amount. For small casinos it might be as los as $3000. For big casinos it might be as high as $10,000 or even $20,000. Know your enemy and stop playing before you reach that point (or immediately after that shoe is complete). If you have a particularly big score and are unrated blow that casino off for the rest of that trip and probably for the six months as well. If rated you might plan on playing several completely square sessions anticipating that you're up for a skills review.
Losing is not nearly the problem, but don't let losing lull you into a false sense of too much security, time played without a break is also the enemy of longevity.
Last edited by bigplayer; 08-13-2015 at 04:21 AM.
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