Losing streak rant - PART EIGHT - and double/spliting dilemma

[mickeymouse]

After a good run of a couple of weeks, I'm back in black figures for play. At my highest point, I was up a net $2200 for the year - the LOW point of my first losing streak. Which just comes to mind how bad a losing streak my last one was (over $10k). Then, in ten minutes I lost $1.5k after getting a super high count and losing hand after hand after hand. Yet again.

I went back to the casino today and it was the same old story. After doing reasonably well for an hour, the true count was +5. I max bet two boxes, and got dealt a pair of sixes on one box and a 20 on the other. The dealer upcard was a six. This is Australian Pontoon.

Using correct strategy I split my two sixes, and got dealt another six.

At this point, I only had one max bet left in my chip stack. So what do I do? I didn't have the money in my pocket to double. So after a few moments of deliberating I just took another card. (The pivot point for H/S is a count of +6). I got a five.

On my other hand I got dealt a picture card to wind up with a stiff 16. Of course, had I split, I would have been able to double my first hand and draw to 21 and win two max bets.
Obviously I stood on my 20. It's the dealer's turn to play. She draws a ten to get to 16. Then... of course she draws a five to make 21.

What an ugly and revolting end to what was otherwise a reasonable session.

To top it all off, the ploppie next to me drew to 21 from stiff hands in his two boxes TWICE IN THE SAME SHOE. I have never achieved this in my entire career.

Whenever there is someone else playing I ALWAYS seem to get the worse hands. The reverse NEVER occurs. I am certain that I lose a greater percentage of hands overall compared to the average ploppie that plays at my venue.

After ~ 350 hours of play, ~ 35,000 hands, with an average bet of $25, I am a measly $175 in front, not counting comps. My theoretical hourly EV is more like $50. Bad luck just follows me wherever I go.

I just wonder though, what was the optimal move in terms of EV in this situation. The silver lining is that hopefully there was something to be learnt from all of this.

Otherwise, screw the world and f**k the ploppies. They don't deserve to win, and they certainly don't deserve to use ME as their luck balancer. I hope they lose their entire life savings and their wives as well. Good luck to them trying to win when I'm not around to be their sacrificial altar boy.

F**K THEM ALL.

[Stealth]

On my other hand I got dealt a picture card to wind up with a stiff 16. Of course, had I split, I would have been able to double my first hand and draw to 21 and win two max bets.
Obviously I stood on my 20. It's the dealer's turn to play. She draws a ten to get to 16. Then... of course she draws a five to make 21.

What an ugly and revolting end to what was otherwise a reasonable session.

To top it all off, the ploppie next to me drew to 21 from stiff hands in his two boxes TWICE IN THE SAME SHOE. I have never achieved this in my entire career.

So, the question is what would the results been had you been properly bankrolled to place the double bet?? What part of luck caused that to happen?

I'm sorry but your rant sounds like a gambler not an AP. Your level of emotion over the dealer hitting a stiff with a 5 indicates you are either inexperienced or you are sweating the bankroll. If you believe you are unlucky then I would suggest that times arise when you think you are lucky. If you are adjusting decisions on betting/playing based on these then you have some characteristics that will break you in the AP world. Suggest you consider a reconnection to the reality of AP play.

By the way "Screw the World" includes a lot of people that you may not wish to harm and , by the way, what benefit is it to you if the ploppies lose their money and families. That sounds like another senseless crime of no benefit, vandalism.

Now, if you want to share your results and can tell us where you are in the long run and against 2 standard deviations of your cumulative play, then we can have a sensible conversation.

Don't mean to be harsh, but friend tell friends what they don't want to hear.

Wish you well and hope things improve.

[20 to 1 Spread]

I think being angry at the people at the table or anything similar to the likes of the dealer hitting their 3 card 16 into a 21 is rather silly and far too emotional for any AP game. Learn to laugh it off, I know its hard and soul crushing, but what else can you do. Maybe it's just me, but sometimes I find humor in those things, when you have 2 semi big bets of 19 or 20 and the dealer pushes or wins, what can you really do. My worst session (was super more inexperienced than I am now) - I lost ~$4K in a single hand at the Wynn. Quad splitting deuces against a 5 or 6. Cant really remember the hand anymore, but I believe I got at least 1 or 2 double down. I can't recall if I laughed at that one, but I certainly know myself and would never have been angry at the dealer or anyone else at the table, but myself. Why? I overbet the bankroll.

If you can't find a reason to be angry at yourself and only yourself and assuming you're not blind sided by rage or what not, then it's a fine play. shrug it off and move on. grind.

[Three]

You should not have started a fresh shoe with such a small amount left in your pocket. You want to think the most you ever lost on a shoe and double it as the amount to start a fresh shoe. If you ever get close to betting it all in one shoe you need to increase the minimum amount of you start a fresh shoe with. You should have never started that shoe with so little money. You made a rookie mistake. I hope you learned your lesson because that may have been a monster shoe you messed up and then had to walk away from.

[Jabberwocky]

[QUOTE=mickeymouse;167557]After a good run of a couple of weeks, I'm back in black figures for play. At my highest point, I was up a net $2200 for the year - the LOW point of my first losing streak. Which just comes to mind how bad a losing streak my last one was (over $10k). Then, in ten minutes I lost $1.5k after getting a super high count and losing hand after hand after hand. Yet again.

I went back to the casino today and it was the same old story. After doing reasonably well for an hour, the true count was +5. I max bet two boxes, and got dealt a pair of sixes on one box and a 20 on the other. The dealer upcard was a six. This is Australian Pontoon.

Using correct strategy I split my two sixes, and got dealt another six.

At this point, I only had one max bet left in my chip stack. So what do I do? I didn't have the money in my pocket to double. So after a few moments of deliberating I just took another card. (The pivot point for H/S is a count of +6). I got a five.

On my other hand I got dealt a picture card to wind up with a stiff 16. Of course, had I split, I would have been able to double my first hand and draw to 21 and win two max bets.
Obviously I stood on my 20. It's the dealer's turn to play. She draws a ten to get to 16. Then... of course she draws a five to make 21.

What an ugly and revolting end to what was otherwise a reasonable session.

To top it all off, the ploppie next to me drew to 21 from stiff hands in his two boxes TWICE IN THE SAME SHOE. I have never achieved this in my entire career.

Whenever there is someone else playing I ALWAYS seem to get the worse hands. The reverse NEVER occurs. I am certain that I lose a greater percentage of hands overall compared to the average ploppie that plays at my venue.

After ~ 350 hours of play, ~ 35,000 hands, with an average bet of $25, I am a measly $175 in front, not counting comps. My theoretical hourly EV is more like $50. Bad luck just follows me wherever I go.

MOUSE,

If you enjoy losing you'll love blackjack.