Is this PROP bet +EV?

**20 to 1 Spread** · 07-12-2015, 03:56 AM

Someone proposed to me that he would bet me TC+4 insuring is a losing play. I don't understand the math myself, but I trust in the thousand time re-posted statements of countless people and forums of TC-3. Thus here is his proposition:

52 card deck:

Constants: Ace for himself and 2 neutral cards for my hand.
He will remove 2 non-faced cards from the deck. (so technically slightly higher than TC-4)

Then he will shuffle the deck and draw one card for me for insurance, and repeat this however long I want. I can bet up to $100. Is this a super EV proposition? Should I hop on this right away? Is it worth it to put in the time? Or am I only making chump change like $5/hr?

RS · 07-12-2015, 04:09 AM

1 ace, 2 non-faces, and 2 neutral cards (also non-faces).

16 face cards remain, out of 47 cards. 31 non-face cards.

16*2 - 31*1 = +1

Your expectation is 1/47, or about 2.12%. If you can bet $100, and say you can do 6 hands a minute, that's $2.12 * 6 = $12.72 per minute, or $763.20 per hour, betting $100/hand.

**20 to 1 Spread** · 07-12-2015, 05:26 AM

Sorry & excuse, but where did you get 16*2 and the 31*1 from?

Perhaps I will see this all too clearly when I wake up tomorrow...

**Shadowless** · 07-12-2015, 05:29 AM

The insurance index for Hi-Lo is:
1.4 for single deck
2.4 for double deck
3 for more than two decks.

Careful, he might be practicing a false shuffle on you, dealing seconds, or up to something else.
Ask to make the final cut and draw the top card yourself.
Inspect the shuffled cards after each trial and insist on giving it your own shuffle before he shuffles it.
Also make sure he's not viewing the cards as he is shuffling.

Considering that there will be a shuffle between each trial, you'll be getting a lot less than one hand every 10 seconds.

**Shadowless** · 07-12-2015, 05:31 AM

Originally Posted by 20 to 1 Spread

Sorry & excuse, but where did you get 16*2 and the 31*1 from?

Perhaps I will see this all too clearly when I wake up tomorrow...

Insurance pays 2 to 1.

((16/47) * 2) - ((31/47) * 1))

16/47 chance to win 2 units.
31/47 chance to lose 1 unit.

Comes out to 100/47, or 2.12%

**20 to 1 Spread** · 07-12-2015, 05:42 AM

Thanks guys! will be sure to inspect when this gets going. will post results after the first day of this prop bet

**MickeyMac** · 07-12-2015, 07:24 AM

I would also make sure that the deck has 52 cards & has 16 ten valued cards.

**DSchles** · 07-12-2015, 08:40 AM

Ask him if he'll just accept a computer simulation of the same proposition. After all, why go through thousands of laborious shuffles, if all he wants is the mathematical result, and isn't planning on any cheating.

Then, just stipulate, say, a one-billion hand simulation, and, if taking insurance wins money, you win the bet. Make the bet interesting: say, for every dime of both of your net worths!

You won't have any trouble winning the bet, but you might have some trouble collecting!

Don

**Sharky** · 07-12-2015, 09:19 AM

take that bet!!!

**ZenMaster_Flash** · 07-12-2015, 09:20 AM

Anything that is "too good to be true" nearly always is !

Damon Runyan said ...

"One of these days … a guy is going to come up to you and show you a nice brand-new deck of cards on which the seal is not yet broken, and this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the Jack of Spades jump out of the deck and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not bet this man, for as sure as you are standing there, you are going to end up with an earful of cider."

**Dieter** · 07-12-2015, 09:32 AM

Originally Posted by 20 to 1 Spread

52 card deck:

Constants: Ace for himself and 2 neutral cards for my hand.
He will remove 2 non-faced cards from the deck. (so technically slightly higher than TC-4)

So, Place an ace on the table, and set all the 7's to the side. (For instance) 47 cards remaining.

Hey, I like this game. Let's play 47 times. I lay $4700 on the table. You deal the cards, one at a time, and pay me $100 + $200 every time it's a ten/face.

16 times, I get my $100 back, plus $200 more. That's $4800. I just made $100.

Want to play again? I'll keep collecting your $100 bills for as many times as you want to deal by these rules.