Number of APs – Part I

[Norm]

This one isn’t easy. On occasion, people mention how many, or few, APs exist. I tend to think it’s larger than most people think, because there are rather a lot that I know that have never posted to a forum. But, thought I’d run a poll.

There are a thousand ways to ask this that will result in a thousand different responses. I’ll ask in two ways, in two polls, this being the first.

Part I

Since we will never agree on the definition of “pro”, I won’t use it. For this poll, the following rules apply:

• Any casino game counts, including online, except for sports and Poker.
• An AP must play with an edge.
• The player must have played with an edge for at least 500 hours.
• The 500 hours can be over any period of time, 3 months, 20 years, doesn’t matter.
• The player does not need to depend on his play to live.
• The player must have played in the last three years.
• Play can be anywhere in the world.

Basically, this poll is about people that can beat casinos – not that make a living at it.

[Masterhoudini]

Does the AP need to be lifetime winner? What if the person only plays like 1hr every year but played in the past?

I would say current number of active APs winning or not but playing with edge (let's say over 100 hours/yr) -- 2000.

Active APs who can make a living off it (50k+) every year -- 500

Active APs who can be in the top 1-5 percentile of income earners (250k+) -- 100

[Norm]

Does the AP need to be lifetime winner?

No. Hopefully would be after 500 hours with an edge. But, it's certainly possible not to be, particularly with a change in stakes.

What if the person only plays like 1hr every year but played in the past?

OK if the person has managed to retain an edge.

[Orangechip2]

2k-5k is the most reasonable number .

[Stealth]

A very interesting question.

So, I am pretty sure no one knows how many but less think about it in terms of what we do know.

I understand Total Rewards has 40,000,000 cardholders:

If 25% of those play blackjack then 10,000,000 are candidates.

If .001% of those are skilled an play with an edge then maybe 10,000 out of that population. Point is, we don't know but I suspect it is larger than we think.

My guess would be 10,000 - 25000 world wide.

Interested in other opinions.

[Jabberwocky]

[QUOTE=Jabberwocky;167516]Casinos allow me to earn my money.

[Blitzkrieg]

Poker should not be excluded from your poll.

[Orangechip2]

Adding poker I think we are over the 25k mark easily..

I was referring to bj ap in my op.

[Dieter]

Poker should not be excluded from your poll.

Is poker played against the house?

If you're winning against other individuals, how is that beating the casino?

this poll is about people that can beat casinos

[Masterhoudini]

Don't forget the criteria is that they played over 500 hours lifetime and are currently active in the past 3 years. I doubt there could be 10000+ worldwide. Don't forget that lots of wannabe APs bust out before 500 hours. I still think 2000 seems reasonable, perhaps 3000 including all other types of AP beyond BJ.

[stopgambling]

i thought the blacklist had contain more than 10k worldwide. So ,20-30k is not unreasonable ,but making over 50k a year then the number may not be that high.

[Masterhoudini]

i thought the blacklist had contain more than 10k worldwide. So ,20-30k is not unreasonable ,but making over 50k a year then the number may not be that high.

Which blacklist are you referring to? G, B, O or all of the above? Also I'm curious if anyone knows how many of those are AP versus cheaters, slot jammers etc. I guess I figured 2000-3000 were active APs, not deceased, or retired and play like once a year,

[Fireman]

I have had several conversations with a few "supposed APs" recently. When I asked about basic strategy, each time I received a response along the lines that "I know basic pretty well and can usually apply it most of the time in the casinos, although I may go with a hunch every now and then".
Even though these individuals may be able to keep a running count (although I doubt it) and call themselves APs, I consider them gamblers and not APs. At a minimum: basic strategy must be mastered (100%), an accurate running count must be kept in casino conditions, conversion to a true count (for balanced counts) must come automatically, a proper betting scheme must be set and followed, adequate bankroll management must be in place, good game selection should be utilized, and adequate cover should be used.
So, my wild guess would be that only about 2,000 to 3,000 APs are actually active. If you include everyone who has watched the movie 21 and went into the casino as an "AP", the number would be in the millions. Just as if everyone who said they attended Woodstock actually did, that would include half the population over 60 years old.