Sample Size & Variance? Question!

[20 to 1 Spread]

So recently I've been changing my play style and aggression based on the pit bosses / time of day / what I can get away with / whether I'm up in the first hour or down (usually when I'm down I'm more prone to full throttle ramp because of the gambler chasing image that I can get away with). I've noticed in the past couple months, a weird result is forming on my spread sheet. Now I don't have more than 250 hours logged for the past 2-3 months, but these are the results.

Expected EV: $10,800
30-1 Spread: $35.57/HR 2.5% ROR going from $10 to $300
[2 hands] at 15-1 Spread: $58.10/HR 12% ROR going from 2 x $20 to $300

Actual Results: $5,400
30-1 Spread: 175 hours - $ 5087
[2 hands] 15-1 Spread: 75 hours - $300

While I am below expected EV (that's fine), what the heck is going on with my 2 x $20 results. The reason it is 2 x $20 is because my joint requires double table min. Question: ----------> Is it worth it for me to lock up two spots and attempt to wong out at neg TC 2+ (usually at 1/2 to 3/4 end of shoe) or just play 1 spot and hope to spread to 2 whenever there's room. My joint is always filled with people so I won't always have the chance for 2 hands if I don't lock. I know it's unfair to say the EV is better because I'm jumping from 2.5% ROR to 12% ROR (sorta have to because the requirement to double table min) - is it worth it? What would you do? Just 1 spot for now and build the bankroll till you can have lower ROR for 2 hands? (I'm okay with the risk, I tolerate it when I have the chance to). Question: ---------> Also what's going on with my poor results with 2 hand spreading of 15-1. Is it more likely for me to win money with such a huge spread of 30-1? Yet CVCX states my EV is 2x better. Mathwise this whole thing is simple - variance is at work and it's such a small sample size that I don't have enough hours logged at 2 hands. Just asking for reassurance I guess.

I just recently started taking my recording spread sheet seriously, but I know 110% I'm above my actual EV when looking back at the 500 hours area. But it's all unfair because I was playing with a 15%+ ROR and sometimes sessions would probably be 20% if I was table maxing at $1K rounds. With that said - should I keep 1 spot and go to 2 whenever, or take on the variance at 2 x $20 at 15-1 spread or go safer route and go 30-1 spread at $10 to $300 and jump 2 when I can. Am I just being silly and result oriented? 2 hand isn't a matter of "safer" or "riskier" (in fact it should reach my N0? faster). Yet it feels like I cant win those sessions and the 2 hand spread of 15-1 is limiting my profits despite putting more money out. Maybe it's because I'm playing more money at negative TC-1 (because I tombstone most my sesh - sometimes I stay at neg TC-2 if it's end of shoe). Idk.

[Three]

n0 is expressed in rounds not hands.

[apkevy]

n0 is expressed in rounds not hands.

Playing 2 hands per round on positive TCs still lowers your n0 according to CVCX.

Edit: assuming you are not playing heads up

[Bodarc]

Question: ----------> Is it worth it for me to lock up two spots and attempt to wong out at neg TC 2+ (usually at 1/2 to 3/4 end of shoe) or just play 1 spot and hope to spread to 2 whenever there's room

(I'm okay with the risk, I tolerate it when I have the chance to)

None of your statistics are right if you don't play the game as you sim it. Assuming your sims are correct and you play according to your sim, it is then only a matter of deciding if you want a higher EV with a higher ROR or a lower safer ROR with a smaller EV. Only you can decide that.

Question: ---------> Also what's going on with my poor results with 2 hand spreading of 15-1. Is it more likely for me to win money with such a huge spread of 30-1? Yet CVCX states my EV is 2x better. Mathwise this whole thing is simple - variance is at work and it's such a small sample size that I don't have enough hours logged at 2 hands. Just asking for reassurance I guess.

It is and you have it.

[20 to 1 Spread]

Yep usually just 1 hand when heads-up but very rare occasion do I get that chance. And at most its for 1/2-3/4 decks at best. Never completed a shoe solo unless it was in the HL room (which I've never ran well in).....

With that said; thoughts on locking 2 hands going 2 x $20 to 2 x $300 or 1 x $400 (to be fair to the spread ratio, but really it's like $300). Note: it's important to remind that I stay through negative TC-1 majority of the time, unless I feel like I can wong out without too much heat. I tombstone my one spot a lot - so its like a semi-play all strat. So obviously when deck is hovering around neutral I experience a lot more volatility and may be losing money when closer to zero or neg 1 at $40 round instead of $10, but when it's good - and I've locked up 2 spots, I get more money out there. What would you prefer? Obviously ROR has to be considered as well. 2 hands is around 12% while 1 hand is around 4% (if I shoot to $400).