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Thread: Saw My First AP (maybe)!?

  1. #53
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    20 to 1 Spread,

    "He kept hitting his 16 vs 10 in positive counts."

    Even with a weak spread, it is wrong to auto-hit that hand.
    The actual cost is rather reasonable, unlike what you said.
    That does not make this unwavering play appropriate.
    One of the easiest way a pit critter has to sniff us out is
    to observe suspected card counters altering their play on
    close decisions (with ZERO indices). A ploppy will not vary
    how they play their 16 vs. 10. If you have a decent spread,
    neither should you. STAND, muttering "I never hit that crap."

    A closely related
    issue is that it is 100% WRONG to always
    hit 16 vs. 10 with Counter Basic Strategy. ("CBS"), where
    you alway STAND on 16 vs. 10.
    CBS was created for those who want to primarily use b
    et-sizing
    as his strategy, and thus uses a "Basic" Strategy that will do the
    best via a weighted average (summing results across TC's), e.g.
    Standing (ALWAYS) on 16 vs. 10 costs virtually nothing [if the bet
    spread is reasonable]. Ditto for doubling 9 vs 2. etc.

  2. #54
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    IF one were a super counter, and it was a pitch game, and your TC was high [to a Level One player]
    but was actually "counterfeit" -- due to a high density of remaining 5's and 4's (and very depleted
    2's, 3's, and 7's) it would be correct to hit.

    NOTE: The late great Dr. Griffin stated that more accurate than any counting system [for this play]
    is knowledge of whether there are more or less 6's than 5's remaining to be played; although the
    reference was for a single deck, it would hold true in a multi-decks game when the discrepancy was
    more than slight, with TC's not from from ZERO.

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