Originally Posted by
counter19
A few casinos where I play have Lucky Lucky (Note: This is not "Lucky Ladies." It's "Lucky Lucky.")
It's another one of those side bets where your first two cards and the dealer's up-card make a hand. In this case, you get paid 1 to 1 if your cards and the dealer's up-card total 19. 2 to 1 for a 20. It then continues working up to higher pay for a 6, 7, 8 combo, suited and unsuited (suited pays more obviously), and trip 7s. The highest payout is trip suited 7s, which is 200 to 1, though unsuited 7s is a decent payout as well.
I was thinking of side counting 7s and making a bet if there happen to be a butt-load of 7s left. I don't mind side counting at all. I've noticed that I am pretty good at it.
So I was wondering, how many 7s would have to be left in the shoe (6D) to warrant a side bet? At one joint, they cut off only a deck. At another though, they cut off only half a deck. I wouldn't mess with it any place where they are dealing 4.5/6, but 5.5/6 may present an opportunity. I realize that I may have to count for months before I see a shoe heavy in 7s, but I don't mind.
Is this worth pursuing? For a potential 200 to 1 payout, it is tempting to find out.
counter19,
First of all, the Lucky Lucky paytable that pays only 1:1 for a 19 is much harder to beat than the "normal" paytable. Here are the two paytables I used:
Code:
Hand |
Original |
19 1:1 |
Suited 777 |
200 |
200 |
Suited 678 |
100 |
100 |
Unsuited 777 |
50 |
50 |
Unsuited 678 |
30 |
30 |
Suited 21 |
15 |
15 |
Unsuited 21 |
3 |
3 |
Any 20 |
2 |
2 |
Any 19 |
2 |
1 |
Loser |
-1 |
-1 |
For an 8D game, the Original has an IBA of -2.6238%, while the 19 1:1 has an IBA of -9.8833%: a much tougher nut to crack!
I ran two billion-round CVData sims for the 19 1:1 paytable, using tags of -12 for 7's, and +1 for every other card. In each sim, the game was 8D with only 26 cards cut off, so a pen of 7.5/8. In the first sim, I found the SB became +EV at a TC of +30, so in the second sim the player played the SB (flat-betting $25) only at +30 & up. Here are the SB results:
Code:
|
Side Bet 1 |
Side Bet 1 |
Side Bet 1 |
Side Bet 1 |
|
Units Bet |
# Won |
EV |
WR |
TOT |
19,097,437 |
4,678,917 |
5.39% |
$2.57 |
>39 |
8,706,236 |
2,146,265 |
10.13% |
$2.21 |
39 |
747,873 |
182,803 |
4.06% |
$0.08 |
38 |
978,186 |
239,280 |
2.02% |
$0.05 |
37 |
471,328 |
115,377 |
4.09% |
$0.05 |
36 |
1,006,684 |
245,907 |
1.94% |
$0.05 |
35 |
1,040,023 |
254,308 |
1.50% |
$0.04 |
34 |
1,178,664 |
287,241 |
1.68% |
$0.05 |
33 |
753,728 |
183,834 |
2.58% |
$0.05 |
32 |
1,758,950 |
428,518 |
0.08% |
$0.00 |
31 |
1,125,213 |
273,290 |
0.56% |
$0.02 |
30 |
1,330,552 |
322,094 |
-0.32% |
($0.01) |
As you can see, in the 2nd sim the player was slightly "unlucky" at +30. Overall, using these tags, you'd play the SB on just over 1.9% of the rounds, with an average edge of +5.39%. While the edge is nice, the low play frequency makes this count ineffective for attacking this SB.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
Bookmarks