This is an update regarding my play lately in Australian Pontoon.

Things have stabilized a bit since I adopted the Secret Monkey Count, but I remain in the hole in overall play this year. I am just above zero after cashback is taken into account and well above parity taking into account the free drinks and meals. That being said, I am still well below expectation as a whole, and over $9k down on my maximum achieved in early May, although a little over a thousand above my latest all time low.

I've been using backbetting and sacrificial splitting. When I play with one other player on the table I have tended to backbet when I am convinced that he/she is good enough in BS or that they will effectively let me make the decisions. In these cases, I can sacrifical split the defensive splits, although it occurs rarely. I am backbetting so that I can get through more hands at a favourable count. Is that logical reasoning?

Unfortunately when I open my own box with other people playing, I invariably get the worst hands. The table overall reflects the house edge but everyone else seems to get lucky and I get to be their sacrifical lamb and luck balancer. This has occurred every time in the last 20 times another player has come to the table. I know this is illogical but it seems to be how it plays out. It's incredibly frustrating seeing them being dealt BJ after BJ while I just get stiffs which I duly bust.

The other thing I've noticed is that runs of low cards tend to come in bunches. If you have 7-10 of them in a row you are likely to get another one even though the count goes up. I'm not going to pretend to be a shuffle tracker but is there a way you should vary your wagers on account of this?

All opinions very much appreciated.