An update: Losing streak/Sacrificial Splitting

**mickeymouse** · 07-22-2015, 01:42 AM

This is an update regarding my play lately in Australian Pontoon.

Things have stabilized a bit since I adopted the Secret Monkey Count, but I remain in the hole in overall play this year. I am just above zero after cashback is taken into account and well above parity taking into account the free drinks and meals. That being said, I am still well below expectation as a whole, and over $9k down on my maximum achieved in early May, although a little over a thousand above my latest all time low.

I've been using backbetting and sacrificial splitting. When I play with one other player on the table I have tended to backbet when I am convinced that he/she is good enough in BS or that they will effectively let me make the decisions. In these cases, I can sacrifical split the defensive splits, although it occurs rarely. I am backbetting so that I can get through more hands at a favourable count. Is that logical reasoning?

Unfortunately when I open my own box with other people playing, I invariably get the worst hands. The table overall reflects the house edge but everyone else seems to get lucky and I get to be their sacrifical lamb and luck balancer. This has occurred every time in the last 20 times another player has come to the table. I know this is illogical but it seems to be how it plays out. It's incredibly frustrating seeing them being dealt BJ after BJ while I just get stiffs which I duly bust.

The other thing I've noticed is that runs of low cards tend to come in bunches. If you have 7-10 of them in a row you are likely to get another one even though the count goes up. I'm not going to pretend to be a shuffle tracker but is there a way you should vary your wagers on account of this?

All opinions very much appreciated.

**mickeymouse** · 07-22-2015, 01:48 AM

**note: I would only backbet someone who would either let me make the decisions (this would only occur when we share a language that is not English) or is an AP themselves, the latter has occurred on occasion. On a massive count I might randomly small-backbet a reasonable BS player in addition to my own.

**Three** · 07-22-2015, 09:07 AM

Originally Posted by mickeymouse

I am backbetting so that I can get through more hands at a favourable count. Is that logical reasoning?

The problem with the logic is playing efficiency is so important in Pontoon. The person will certainly cost you a ton in lost bonuses. Strategy change to play for the bonuses is critical. If playing adjustments are made properly the multi-card bonuses are worth a lot more than the BJ bonus. The ace is weighted heavy to have you bet more when these bonuses are likely but then you must play for them to get the value out of your bet. Your BS player is most likely not playing for them properly. Perhaps you don't know the proper adjustment to your playing decisions either.

Originally Posted by mickeymouse

Unfortunately when I open my own box with other people playing, I invariably get the worst hands. The table overall reflects the house edge but everyone else seems to get lucky and I get to be their sacrifical lamb and luck balancer. This has occurred every time in the last 20 times another player has come to the table. I know this is illogical but it seems to be how it plays out. It's incredibly frustrating seeing them being dealt BJ after BJ while I just get stiffs which I duly bust.

Two possibilities:
1) Small sample size so large variance range from expectation. With a larger sample size things will start to approach expectation.
2) Selective memory remembering the worst of it causing a perception that doesn't reflect reality.

Originally Posted by mickeymouse

The other thing I've noticed is that runs of low cards tend to come in bunches. If you have 7-10 of them in a row you are likely to get another one even though the count goes up. I'm not going to pretend to be a shuffle tracker but is there a way you should vary your wagers on account of this?

No. You just hope that when the cards that balance the low cards come you benefit from them and that they aren't behind the cut card.

**realestate** · 07-22-2015, 04:15 PM

What is this even about

**ZenMaster_Flash** · 07-22-2015, 07:16 PM

Realestate,

They are discussing "Pontoon."
It is a game played in Australia
and a few other places as well.
It is similar to Spanish21.

http://www.pagat.com/banking/pontoon.html

**biggg** · 07-22-2015, 10:25 PM

Most people play pretty bad at that game I don't think you'd be +Ev on their spot unless the true count was 4-5 or more. The strategy is more like regular bj at super high counts I guess. I played around with an "average player" strat and the average person was about a 1.7% dog in a S17 game.

You are focusing too much on short term results I'd be looking to get in the table time and focus on that juicy cashback.

**ZenMaster_Flash** · 07-23-2015, 05:33 AM

In Pontoon and Spanish21 the actual play of the modal player is so dreadful

that I would hazard a guess that their e.v. is in the neighborhood of - 7.5 %.

Before accusing this writer of hyperbole, note that the Basic Strategy for BJ,

when applied to these (very different) games is a virtually guaranteed loser

**Three** · 07-23-2015, 05:36 AM

Yeah, don't you love it when people that never played sit down and the dealer says it is just like BJ. Explains some of the additional rules but never says there is no 10 rank in the deck.

**Stealth** · 07-23-2015, 09:03 AM

Have you read Katrina Walkers book on Pontoon??

"The Pro's Guide to Spanish 21 and Australian Pontoon"

Should be required reading if you are trying to beat Pontoon.

**ZenMaster_Flash** · 07-23-2015, 12:43 PM

Katrina Walker's book is good, but her Card Counting system is very weak.
The only other book ever written on Spanish21 (without Pontoon) is a truly
dreadful piece of garbage by … you guessed it, Frank Sclobete. Who else
would it be, but that huckster extraordinaire ? This rubbish claims that you
CANNOT succeed counting cards with Span21. That so-called "book" is entitled:
"The Armada Strategy for Spanish21"

That being said, anyone playing either of these two BJ variants, MUST read
Katrina Walker's book, if they hope to do well at these complicated games.

**moo321** · 07-27-2015, 01:04 PM

I'm also working on a study of this game.

Get PM capacity. I don't want to comment any further here.

**mickeymouse** · 07-28-2015, 06:33 PM

An update: back to a 27 session high and well into black figures overall now. Still not having much luck on a lot of big hands... lost three max bets a vs. 20 twice took insurance on a TC of +15. Dealer didnt get bj but went five ten five to draw to 21.

**Three** · 07-28-2015, 08:22 PM

If using an ace reckoned count you might want to avoid insurance. It is a rare opportunity and with a +2 tag for the ace and a +1 tag for the faces only 60% of the plus tag count comes from faces. You got a very rare opportunity coupled with a poorly correlated decision for a high bet. That is an index that begs for risk aversion if not total avoidance.