Sorry for repost (phone is lagging)
So the bet finally went down at a TC+4 with $50-100 bets allowed. I was down $1700 at my worst... Holy crap.
Cards on table: Ace & 2,2
Cards excluded: 4 face cards & 7 non face card
I played for 1.5 hours and ended down $250... Whew I guess. Do I just play this out? We agreed he has to keep hosting as long as I am down Money. I Think I know this is a winning bet - acvroding to online... Otherwise everything I've been told has been a lie.
Last edited by 20 to 1 Spread; 08-03-2015 at 08:04 PM.
Your original post said the following: "Constants: Ace for himself and 2 neutral cards for my hand. He will remove 2 non-faced cards from the deck. (so technically slightly higher than TC-4)." This scenario produced a residue of 31 non-tens and 16 tens. Needing 1/3 to be tens, 16/47 > 1/3, and you had the edge.
Now, all of a sudden, you write something completely different, and you wonder why you're losing with a completely different scenario!! You now seem to be playing: "Cards on table: Ace & 2,2. Cards excluded: 4 face cards & 7 non face cards. Where did that come from???? You now have a residue of 26 non-tens and 12 tens. 12/38 is LESS THAN 1/3, and you're royally screwed!! What's wrong with you? You wrote to us about one proposition, and now you're playing a totally different one. Shame on you.
Don
This is NOT a winning bet, and this is a perfect example of why you need to learn to do the math yourself before taking prop bets like this.
In your original description you said an Ace and 4 non-face cards would be removed from the deck. We calculated that after a random shuffle the probability of the next card being a 10 or face was 16/47, giving you a 2.12% edge on insurance, for an expected (average) return of $2.12 per hand.
However, you just reported that this guy removed an Ace, 9 non-face cards, and 4 face cards. That leaves 12 face cards and 26 non-face cards. This is very different than the scenario you described.
If you don't immediately know how to calculate the expected return of insurance for this deck composition, then go and study The Law of Total Expectation until you can do it in your sleep. This is fundamental to being an advantage player and there is no excuse for not knowing it.
You were expected to lose $5.26 per hand in that game, and if you played more than 47 hands then consider yourself lucky for only losing $250.
Awww crap. The guy suggested since the tc remains the same, we would speed up the process by just removing some cards - which sounded logical to me at the moment. Didn't think too much about it once the game started. Lord knows how many hands we sped through, I guess I got off light.... Sigh time to reflect and be sad. I wonder if the guy knows and will host under the original bet.
Now that I think about it: the ratio of cards changes and it isn't a 1:1 ratio. AYIAH!!
----------- I am so ashamed and frustrated at myself ---------------
Now that you guys explained it, it is so plainly obvious. I would like to use sleep deprivation as an excuse, but really its on me for not thinking the math before hand (after it had changed from the original) and foolish to assume that taking a face and non-face would keep the same ratio.
Last edited by 20 to 1 Spread; 08-04-2015 at 01:59 AM.
Starting deck: 52 cards, 16 faces, 36 non faces.Originally Posted by 20 to 1 Spread
Your deck: 38 cards, 12 faces, 26 non faces.
You have 12/38 chance of winning 2:1 and 26/38 chance of losing 1.
(12/38) * 2 + (26/38) * -1 ~= -0.0526. ie: You're playing with a 5.26% disadvantage.
Your friend is smart.
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
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