french rookie in vegas

[paris]

Hi Guys,
The goal of my thread is probably quiet common but I could not find an exact answer to it yet. Your views will be precious.

Thirst of all, Let me introduce myself: I am French, working in the finance industry, rather quantitative. Few years ago I started playing poker, worked a lot on my game and I am making a decent side income from it now(30k$ /year).

I however consider myself ‘recreational’ in the sense that money is not the only goal for me when I pay. I tried Vegas a few times, loves it, and try to commute several times a year from Europe to enjoy little profits and great memories out there.

I came across several YouTube videos about blackjack (about MIT team to start with). It gave me the idea that I could try to become a breakeven+ player in blackjack (mostly for the sake of the challenge, for the fun of getting comped big time and why not, to make small profits)

I learned the BS and now understand the basics of the advantages of counting (to set the bet size properly along the deck while amending the BS along)

I am testing the software in demo, plan to buy it and train myself for my next trip in town.

To recap: I ‘am ready to spend a limited amount of time for practice (100 hours is a good guess). I am decent at memorization but I am not rain man either. I don’t plan to be the best of the best neither getting rich but slightly EV+ in blackjack aside from playing poker. I’m ready to risk around 5k$ if I pretty sure I am not a clear ev-. I am not planning any team play.

Here are my question for you guys:

1) In my shoes, what game would you learn specifically (6 deck ?) and what count system would you learn (my first guess would be REKO ?).

2) What betting strategy would you suggest in order to limit the heat? (Actually, would there be any risk of heat for someone like me?). In what range would you spread
bets ? Are casinos annoyed about all counters or only those clearly ev+which I won’t be I guess?

3) What would be your casinos/ limits of choice (ie the smallest games where the casino edge is not too much? (Thinking something like the 25$ tables at MGM or such?). Is there any meaning practicing lower first?

4)In any ‘I am catched situation” what happens ? Would they bar you from the casino as a whole or only from BJ (will I be able to keep on playing poker?)Is it per property or for the whole chain ?

I hope my questions are not out of line in such a forum and wish to get your informed feedback and maybe start interesting conversations

All the best at the tables to all of you…


AKtueur

[happyjack21]

Welcome,
1. I would learn Hi-Low personally. It translates better to a multitude of games with different conditions (decks)
2. 1 to 12 to 1 to 20? Something around there it depends on what type of shoe game you're playing. Plus your taste for risk. I don't have experience spreading on pitch game.
3. My limits of choice would be the 5 dollar tables. 5K isn't really that much to be invested with Risk of Ruin factored in there.
4. They would probably tell you your action wasn't welcome on BJ. And then decide to bar you or not. Try to have the skills to avoid making it easy for them. Just try to exit the premises before the fancy suits get there

[moo321]

Are you familiar with the Kelly criteria for wagering? It's used in finance. If so, that would be a good place to look at considering how to structure your bankroll. Before you go into the casino, you want to know how much to bet at a given true count given the % advantage and the standard deviation.

[Tom]

I recently read a quantitative finance book by Paul Wilmott. Thought it was interesting that it had a chapter dedicated to Blackjack, albeit a brief one.

Anyway, other rules besides # of deck is important, i.e. Double After Split (DAS), Resplit Aces (RSA) etc. I play 6 deck, which seems to be the most common. Two deck or less seems to get you heat immediately. Just pick a counting system and stick to it; if you want to be able to advance to higher levels than choose one that offers such an option. I am excellent with suit tracking but terrible with count conversion so Red 7 works best for me. Spread depends on game you're playing (edge etc). I've heard something like 1-12 is minimum for shoes, I usually play 1-16. Five dollar tables are the place to be.....no reason to play higher minimum unless X-times your max bet exceeds the max table bet. The last one I played at had max table bet of $1,000. Unless you are "wonging" in shoes you will really need the lowest bet possible. As far as getting caught, I would make it a priority to make sure that doesn't happen. You should be able to sense when they are about to back you off in most cases.

[paris]

Thanks a lot for your inputs guys. Really nice to get the community on my side with this challenge.

I'll make it simple to start with :

I understand SD and DD are more heat sensitive than 6 decks, require more pit experience and as I will probably be naive to start with, I'll stick with 6decks.

Your first answers make me think that REKO is the pick of choice for someone like me who intends to stay an amateur (hopefully not a losing one!)

I'll read the whole REKO section, practice on the soft and see how I can go from there.

Three questions for you. 1-Do I make any mistake assuming REKO is fine for 6 decks?

2-Assuming BS ev is -.20% for 50$ tables -0.30 for 25% tables a -0.4% for 5$(maybe 10not sure), can you start with 5$ for practice whiley not being ev- ?

To be more precise, what edge do you gain with REKO played fine but not 100% perfect(to be compared to the initial -0.40% casino edge)

3-Any advice of a 50 hours or so training program for 6 decks REKO (on computer simulation, with cards to count…). How do you advice time spent practicing?

All other inputs /thoughts more than welcome.

[Zach Black]

REKO is be fine for 6D

It's possible to wong into the $25 tables, but with a $5K trip bankroll you need to look for the best rules & pen with $5 & $10 min tables if you're going to play from the top of the deck.

Get the Casono Verite practice software at qfit.com