Have I just been lucky? Up $6600 over about 45-50 trips to local casino.

[mafaso]

You guys are all right I know.

And I do know what standard deviation is along with probability. THAT is why I got on this forum in the first place. I needed a reality check. I shouldn't be up just playing BS since that still has the odds in the casino's favor. That is why I don't understand how I'm up so much. I guess it's just been a combo of "luck" and placing good bets at lucky times.

The only thing I was thinking is that playing BS keeps the odds fairly close, but by taking advantage of splits, double downs and surrender, it is giving me a slight advantage?

I'm about to get married so will take my 10k and go home. Maybe in a couple of years I will revisit this and learn the ways of you guys. I don't think my new wife would appreciate me gambling our money on learning to beat a casino!

Thanks.

[DickFer]

I'm no expert, but taking advantage of splits, double downs and surrender is already calculated into the houses edge I believe? (included in BS). so you're still playing with a disadvantage. You've been lucky, really all there is to it lol. When the odds are close to 50/50 of course a person can an experience an upswing even if the odds are against them. The thing is, over the long run you're still running at -EV and if you keep playing you are essentially guaranteed to lose(unless counting and using other strategies to gain an edge). As far as I know only way to be +EV in blackjack is to be counting cards and timing your bets accordingly while following BS and other indexes associated with the count. Congrats on your wins man!

[KJ]

You guys are all right I know.

And I do know what standard deviation is along with probability. THAT is why I got on this forum in the first place. I needed a reality check. I shouldn't be up just playing BS since that still has the odds in the casino's favor. That is why I don't understand how I'm up so much. I guess it's just been a combo of "luck" and placing good bets at lucky times.

The only thing I was thinking is that playing BS keeps the odds fairly close, but by taking advantage of splits, double downs and surrender, it is giving me a slight advantage?

I'm about to get married so will take my 10k and go home. Maybe in a couple of years I will revisit this and learn the ways of you guys. I don't think my new wife would appreciate me gambling our money on learning to beat a casino!

Thanks.

Well that's a smart decision....The 'quit while ahead' decision.....not necessarily the getting married decision.

But just so you know for future reference, or to avoid temptation now, the part of your post that I highlighted in bold print is completely false. Even if playing perfect BS, which includes taking advantage of all splits double downs and surrender, you are still playing somewhere around a .5% disadvantage, depending on exact rules.

[Masterhoudini]

Let's just say for the sake of brevity you played 150 hours in order to win $6600 since you mentioned you played between 0.5-6 hours. That's too short a time to determine ANYTHING. I've had 200+ hour losing streaks and I play with an advantage. It eventually evens out, the math never lies.

[NotEnoughHeat]

It eventually evens out, the math never lies.

It never lies, people just have a hard time understanding what it said in the first place.

[mafaso]

You guys are all right. I'm up $9600. Will take $400 and win or lose all. Hope to be up $10k, but $9,200 will be fine too. Then I'm done and I realize how lucky I've been. I don't want the math to catch up with me!

[ZenKinG]

I love to play blackjack, and so I decided to visit a local card room near me. I take a basic strategy card with me. I have gone roughly 45 to 50 times over the past 2 months and am up $6600 to date. I "usually" walk out $100 to $250 up, but obviously have walked out a few times down and have been down many times at the table. It seems when I do get down, either immediately or for the day, if I keep playing, I win it back. Since it's such a short drive, I don't mind winning just a $100 or so and leaving. I've stayed for as little as 5 minutes, hitting about 10 hands in a row, cashing out and leaving.

The table has late surrender, can double after splits up to 4 times (except Aces (one card)), dealer hits soft 17 and the game is double deck blackjack. I think the surrender really helps.

I keep waiting for the law of averages to hit me. The pit bosses all know me now of course and said as long as I stay under the radar it's no problem. They for sure know how much I'm up since I use a player's card (they have great comps, I've gotten well over $300 in food at their excellent restaurant). So many idiots around me play so poorly and just give away their money it's scary. I tell others about surrender and they always say "I never surrender!", like it's a macho thing. What fools!

Have I just been hitting it lucky? I have no betting strategy since I don't count cards. I keep thinking I should quit, but what if I had quit when I was up only $100? I wouldn't be at $6600 now! My thinking is sacrifice 20% to try and keep winning. Once I lose the 20% call it quits. But I just can't believe that I've been so lucky, or have I found a table with basically even odds and I'm up because of the double downs and splits? Or maybe just my sporadic betting has saved me (ie getting frustrated and putting a lot of money).

Sorry to be a noob, but I need someone to tell me what kind of dream I'm in right now. It would make me sick to give back more than 20%!

I would lower it from 20% to about 10%. Because you're not playing an advantage game and just using basic strategy you can expect to lose about 50 cents for every $1 you wager on average depending on rules and penetration. My advice to you is yes it's luck because you're not playing with an advantage and yes the law of averages will indeed bite you, but that doesn't mean you should stop playing. I say ride your luck until you lose 10% of the final amount that you began to start losing with and then call it quits and be proud that you've literally extorted money from the casino through sheer luck. As we all now in the short run anything can happen which is why you're up so much, but let the law of averages catch up with you and the long run finally kicks in and in your case the long run is not on your side because you're playing with no such advantage.

So again, my advice is play until you lose about 10% of your last winnings. Say you ride it up to 10k, than you lose 1k, i would call it quits and then pick up a blackjack book, preferably Professional Blackjack or Blackjack Attack, stay active on these forums, buy Norms Casino Verite and CVCX(Blackjack simulator that calculates everything you need to be successful, EV, Risk of Ruin, etc.) and learn everything you need to know about card counting and then start becoming an AP. After you learn how to count, learn other different types of AP techniques that can benefit you such as sequencing or tracking, learn how to find exposed games such as hole-carding and start playing with an edge. For now ride out your luck until you lose 10% of your last holdings. Good luck.

[KJ]

I would lower it from 20% to about 10%.

Why be 'willing' lose any at all?

So again, my advice is play until you lose about 10% of your last winnings.

Bad advice, ZK. I didn't want to seem like I was 'picking' on the OP, a newer member, but APing and that includes card counting is a mindset. I true AP isn't willing to play a single hand, round or spin at a disadvantage. When you do, you are crossing back over that line from AP to gambler.

You can choose to cross that line, just know that you are. I myself do this, a little bit in the form of sportsbetting. Try as I might, my sportsbetting activities are not +EV in most cases. I am ok doing this in the name of entertainment (gambling). But where I think it gets hairy is when you cross that line and try to AP and gamble within the same game, your primary AP game. That should be all kinds of red flags.

[Sharky]

...just using basic strategy you can expect to lose about 50 cents for every $1 you wager on average depending on rules and penetration....

so he's -50% ev?....hmmm, i would advise to just quit

[DickFer]

Lose 50 cents on every dollar... LOL what kinda game are you playing? I'm just gonna go ahead and assume you meant point5 cents.

[KJ]

Lose 50 cents on every dollar... LOL what kinda game are you playing? I'm just gonna go ahead and assume you meant 5 cents.

Based on the mathematics, it should be .5 cents on a dollar, so I will go ahead a guess that Zking meant to say 50 cents on $100, not 50 cents on $1, although guessing what Zking is thinking is a dangerous exercise at best.

[Masterhoudini]

I hate to play devil's advocate, but the OP should also consider the entertainment aspect of playing blackjack recreationally using only basic strategy. I find being an AP exhausting and downright demoralizing at times battling the losing streaks. Simply put, playing blackjack is no longer a "fun" activity to me. It is a grind, and business to me- the only fun part in this sense is winning money. I have fun and relax outside of the casino doing other hobbies I enjoy, or occasionally play another game at the casino using $100, roulette or another carnival game, just for gambling's sake and entertainment. The cross over to becoming an AP should be evaluated carefully because of this. My philosophy is either go into it full force and don't turn back, or don't do it at all.

[NotEnoughHeat]

I hate to play devil's advocate, but the OP should also consider the entertainment aspect of playing blackjack recreationally using only basic strategy. I find being an AP exhausting and downright demoralizing at times battling the losing streaks. Simply put, playing blackjack is no longer a "fun" activity to me. It is a grind, and business to me- the only fun part in this sense is winning money. I have fun and relax outside of the casino doing other hobbies I enjoy, or occasionally play another game at the casino using $100, roulette or another carnival game, just for gambling's sake and entertainment. The cross over to becoming an AP should be evaluated carefully because of this. My philosophy is either go into it full force and don't turn back, or don't do it at all.

I'm sympathetic towards this sentiment. Although I think the best option, money wise, is to use this capital to kick start an AP hobby that could later on be a career (or any other worthwhile business venture), I suppose it is not our place to tell OP he should use his money for business over work.

If you do decide to play more recreationally (ie. not counting) I would just stop keeping track of your winnings. It will only lead to disappointment when the house edge and law of averages grinds your trophy into dust and eventually a hole.

I think just spending the money on splurging and pleasure is not a bad idea either. At the end of the day, it's your money, do what you want. We all just hope you'll be smart with it and not become another 'winner' with nothing a story to show for all that play.