Have I just been lucky? Up $6600 over about 45-50 trips to local casino.

[mafaso]

I love to play blackjack, and so I decided to visit a local card room near me. I take a basic strategy card with me. I have gone roughly 45 to 50 times over the past 2 months and am up $6600 to date. I "usually" walk out $100 to $250 up, but obviously have walked out a few times down and have been down many times at the table. It seems when I do get down, either immediately or for the day, if I keep playing, I win it back. Since it's such a short drive, I don't mind winning just a $100 or so and leaving. I've stayed for as little as 5 minutes, hitting about 10 hands in a row, cashing out and leaving.

The table has late surrender, can double after splits up to 4 times (except Aces (one card)), dealer hits soft 17 and the game is double deck blackjack. I think the surrender really helps.

I keep waiting for the law of averages to hit me. The pit bosses all know me now of course and said as long as I stay under the radar it's no problem. They for sure know how much I'm up since I use a player's card (they have great comps, I've gotten well over $300 in food at their excellent restaurant). So many idiots around me play so poorly and just give away their money it's scary. I tell others about surrender and they always say "I never surrender!", like it's a macho thing. What fools!

Have I just been hitting it lucky? I have no betting strategy since I don't count cards. I keep thinking I should quit, but what if I had quit when I was up only $100? I wouldn't be at $6600 now! My thinking is sacrifice 20% to try and keep winning. Once I lose the 20% call it quits. But I just can't believe that I've been so lucky, or have I found a table with basically even odds and I'm up because of the double downs and splits? Or maybe just my sporadic betting has saved me (ie getting frustrated and putting a lot of money).

Sorry to be a noob, but I need someone to tell me what kind of dream I'm in right now. It would make me sick to give back more than 20%!

[Three]

You haven't mentioned any way that you get an advantage so I must say you have been lucky.

[mafaso]

But I don't believe in luck.

[Bodarc]

keep playing as you are. You will.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Yes, you have been lucky and you need to quit.

You didn't mention what stakes you are playing for - to have a mean session win over $100.

My hunch is that you must be making $25 bets.

You didn't mention how many hours on average you played, and how crowded the tables were.

You didn't mention what penetration you are seeing, although I suspect that it is 50%

I do not know where you are playing but you failed to mention the level of penetration.

Counter-intuitively, Late Surrender increases in value as the number of decks increase.

Of course, if you are playing Basic Strategy in a H17 DD game your (dis)advantage is

approximately 0.35% (that is also what it would be with re-split Aces).

The chances of you actually being ahead (anything) after [how many?] hours is a bit unlikely;

I am hoping that Don S. (or someone) will provide a probability of occurrence via Z-Score;

Maybe just +2 Sigma if sessions were 3 hrs. with half-filled tables - and playing GREEN.

[marriedputter]

So many idiots around me play so poorly and just give away their money it's scary. I tell others about surrender and they always say "I never surrender!", like it's a macho thing. What fools

Death before dishonor!

[21forme]

I do not know where you are playing but you failed to mention the level of penetration.

Doesn't make a difference for a BS player.

[ZeeBabar]

You are on your way to being an addict. For many, I suspect, early success leads to getting hooked.

[mafaso]

Very diverse group on answers!

I really don't like playing, but I like winning money.

The penetration is nowhere near 50%. I'd say about 20-22. I didn't say an average because I didn't think it mattered. As little as 30 mins to 6 hours. Win until lose all in pockets or about 30% gain. Playing 15 dollar table. Playing 15-40 and jumping to 100 when I feel "lucky". I like to play alone or with only 1 or 2 other players. Too many people makes it too slow, unless people are being funny.

So if they have surrender, should I be playing the 6 shoe deck?

[Cloudstreets7087]

Very diverse group on answers!

I really don't like playing, but I like winning money.

The penetration is nowhere near 50%. I'd say about 20-22. I didn't say an average because I didn't think it mattered. As little as 30 mins to 6 hours. Win until lose all in pockets or about 30% gain. Playing 15 dollar table. Playing 15-40 and jumping to 100 when I feel "lucky". I like to play alone or with only 1 or 2 other players. Too many people makes it too slow, unless people are being funny.

So if they have surrender, should I be playing the 6 shoe deck?

seems like you have some sort of bankroll discipline. I have seen many BS players that keep tapping the ATM like it's an endless pit of cash. Having defined rules on when you leave whether up or down is important. Learning to count will open up new possibilities though. The idea of course is only making large bets when you have advantage. BS does not predict advantage.

[NotEnoughHeat]

The penetration is nowhere near 50%. I'd say about 20-22.

Penetration, when given as a percentage (as opposed to % or # cutoff), refers to how deep the cut card is put in the shoe. I assume you mean 20-22% cutoff not 20-22% penetration. 20-22% penetration would mean that the dealer plays 62-68 cards (for a 6D shoe) then shuffles, which is unheard of (even for online casinos). That casino would be bleeding money like crazy.

[Three]

Penetration, when given as a percentage (as opposed to % or # cutoff), refers to how deep the cut card is put in the shoe. I assume you mean 20-22% cutoff not 20-22% penetration. 20-22% penetration would mean that the dealer plays 62-68 cards (for a 6D shoe) then shuffles, which is unheard of (even for online casinos). That casino would be bleeding money like crazy.

He's playing DD.

[mafaso]

Was able to win $2820 last night. Now up $9400 in total. I left for my car 2 times and ended turning around to come back and play.

They actually asked me to stop using my basic strategy card!! I couldn't believe it. I was angry and colored out, but couldn't stop playing. The dealer couldn't believe they were asking me to stop using it. I kept using it knowing I was in the right and it wasn't brought up again.

As for the penetration, it looks like they are putting the cut card about 25% or 30% in. Im talking about the card they put into the rear of the deck using a slot in the shoe.