Lucky Ladies Variance

[apkevy]

I would like to know what is the variance of the lucky ladies side bet ( 8D 1000/200/25/10/4 payout ). I cant seem to find any answer on the net.

Also,
-What would be the index play using simple HiLo ?
-What is the effect of removing a small card/ten valued card/QoH on EV ?

Thanks

[NotEnoughHeat]

unfortunately I don't know of anywhere 8D information is published for LL. You have likely ran into 2/6D info with the two payouts. If you really want to know for yourself, you can find out running your own simulation using CVData.

(Terminology LL10 is the payout schedule you're talking about LL9 is the other common one). For 6D LL10 the ev-maximizing index is it is +4/5 (depending who you ask) and +7 for LL9. Like I said, no one has published a straight answer to what you're looking for but perhaps what I just told you will give you an idea.

Your second question can't be answered as is because the answer depends on a few variables, which I will list:
-Payout schedule
-Decks
-Current Penetration (if you are talking about a EoR at a certain point rather than average)

Your EV and variance are also dependent of those same variables.

Elliot Jacobson says that any penetration worse than 7/8 would be "of dubious value to an AP", but take that with a grain a salt because I have the impression the standard he has for value for an AP is quite high because he has in mind someone who knows lots of different plays and has room to be picky.

[apkevy]

unfortunately I don't know of anywhere 8D information is published for LL. You have likely ran into 2/6D info with the two payouts. If you really want to know for yourself, you can find out running your own simulation using CVData.

(Terminology LL10 is the payout schedule you're talking about LL9 is the other common one). For 6D LL10 the ev-maximizing index is it is +4/5 (depending who you ask) and +7 for LL9. Like I said, no one has published a straight answer to what you're looking for but perhaps what I just told you will give you an idea.

Your second question can't be answered as is because the answer depends on a few variables, which I will list:
-Payout schedule
-Decks
-Current Penetration (if you are talking about a EoR at a certain point rather than average)

Your EV and variance are also dependent of those same variables.

Elliot Jacobson says that any penetration worse than 7/8 would be "of dubious value to an AP", but take that with a grain a salt because I have the impression the standard he has for value for an AP is quite high because he has in mind someone who knows lots of different plays and has room to be picky.

Thanks Heat ! Sadly, I do not own CVData. I forgot to mention the game is 8D 75% pen and the payout schedule is LL10. I guess I will play LL on +5TC to be safe.

[Dog Hand]

I would like to know what is the variance of the lucky ladies side bet ( 8D 1000/200/25/10/4 payout ). I cant seem to find any answer on the net.

Also,
-What would be the index play using simple HiLo ?
-What is the effect of removing a small card/ten valued card/QoH on EV ?

Thanks

apkevy,

Here are the Effect of Removal values for the 8D Lucky Ladies paytable you specified. By the way, the initial player edge is -16.73%.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

8D
  EoR Table B

A
0.1275%

2
0.4082%

3
0.4082%

4
0.4082%

5
0.4082%

6
0.4082%

7
0.4082%

8
0.4082%

9
0.1661%

10
-0.6795%

J
-0.6795%

K
-0.6795%

Q scd
-0.6795%

Q h
-2.4120%

[apkevy]

apkevy,

Here are the Effect of Removal values for the 8D Lucky Ladies paytable you specified. By the way, the initial player edge is -16.73%.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

8D
  EoR Table B

A
0.1275%

2
0.4082%

3
0.4082%

4
0.4082%

5
0.4082%

6
0.4082%

7
0.4082%

8
0.4082%

9
0.1661%

10
-0.6795%

J
-0.6795%

K
-0.6795%

Q scd
-0.6795%

Q h
-2.4120%

Thank you so much DogHand, so you happen to know the variance of the side bet so I can calculate it's standard deviation ? It's 8D 75% pen LL10.

[NotEnoughHeat]

apkevy,

Here are the Effect of Removal values for the 8D Lucky Ladies paytable you specified. By the way, the initial player edge is -16.73%.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

I haven't ran into the EORs much at all for LL. Did you calculate these EORs yourself? If so do you mind giving the 6D EORs, if not do you mind posting the chart?

[Midwest Player]

From Eliot's ap heat site.
Card Counting the Lucky Ladies Side Bet
http://apheat.net/2012/08/08/card-co...jack-side-bet/

[apkevy]

From Eliot's ap heat site.
Card Counting the Lucky Ladies Side Bet
http://apheat.net/2012/08/08/card-co...jack-side-bet/

I had already read the part where it has info on the LL10, thanks tho

[Dog Hand]

I haven't ran into the EORs much at all for LL. Did you calculate these EORs yourself? If so do you mind giving the 6D EORs, if not do you mind posting the chart?

NotEnoughHeat,

I calculated them by CA in Excel.

Which payable would you like?

Dog Hand

[NotEnoughHeat]

NotEnoughHeat,

I calculated them by CA in Excel.

Which payable would you like?

Dog Hand

I would like to see the LL10 for 6D. LL10 is 1000/200/25/10/4.

Thanks a lot

Let me know if you need anymore info

P.S. knowing the EORs for each Qh would be super useful too (first Qh compared to 2nd and 3rd). Ideally would like to use your information to side bet Qhs and adjust my main count (which I have been using for LL). Even if I can't achieve this result I would still value and appreciate the EORs greatly.

[Dog Hand]

I would like to see the LL10 for 6D. LL10 is 1000/200/25/10/4.

Thanks a lot

Let me know if you need anymore info

P.S. knowing the EORs for each Qh would be super useful too (first Qh compared to 2nd and 3rd). Ideally would like to use your information to side bet Qhs and adjust my main count (which I have been using for LL). Even if I can't achieve this result I would still value and appreciate the EORs greatly.

NotEnoughHeat,

Here are the requested values:

6D  EoR Table B

A
0.1662%

2
0.5390%

3
0.5390%

4
0.5390%

5
0.5390%

6
0.5390%

7
0.5390%

8
0.5390%

9
0.2154%

10
-0.9008%

J
-0.9008%

K
-0.9008%

Q scd
-0.9008%

Q h
-3.1052%

6D  Paytable B

Qh Gone
EV
? EV

0
-17.6391%
0.0000%

1
-20.7442%
-3.1052%

2
-23.3904%
-2.6461%

3
-25.5693%
-2.1789%

4
-27.2727%
-1.7034%

5
-28.4920%
-1.2194%

6
-29.2189%
-0.7269%

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

[Three]

knowing the EORs for each Qh would be super useful too (first Qh compared to 2nd and 3rd).

I don't know if you purposely ignored this but I was interested in how squishy the EOR for the Qh is as they are removed. I find these kinds of deck dependent EOR things fascinating and have made progress on systems that can more accurately predict advantage as the deck composition gets whacky. After all that is when we alter our bets. The more you understand how cards interact with the removal of any cards the more accurate you can bet and play. These kinds of things are not linear as is assumed.

[NotEnoughHeat]

I don't know if you purposely ignored this but I was interested in how squishy the EOR for the Qh is as they are removed. I find these kinds of deck dependent EOR things fascinating and have made progress on systems that can more accurately predict advantage as the deck composition gets whacky. After all that is when we alter our bets. The more you understand how cards interact with the removal of any cards the more accurate you can bet and play. These kinds of things are not linear as is assumed.

That's actually a quote of me, but anyone who was following understands that you're talking to Dog Hand.

I don't think the linearity of EORs was so much assumed but forgotten. Conventional counting systems utilize the average EOR (ie. take a linear approach) but often times these EORs are misinterpreted to mean that your first 3 removed has the same affect as the twentieth 3 removed and that the EORs are static. It's just that the way information is processed by linear counts doesn't require its users or designers to acknowledge that EORs are dynamic, so the fact of the matter is often lost.

T3, you would probably know more about this than me or most of the posters on this website. I would imagine than even just the EORs for 1st, 2nd, ..., nth card are also partial generalizations since EORs interact with each other. The twentieth 3 removed might have a slightly different EOR when there has already been ten 8s removed compared to thirty 8s removed. Do you think that such interactions of EORs are important?

Like I have been going on lately, perhaps we should continue such a discussion in a new thread (perhaps in the probability forum). I just felt like the earlier part of this post belongs here because it directly refers to a post here and I didn't want to split the post.