Intermediate struggles, A,7 vs 10

[Tarzan]

I could explain how to have perfect play on this hand if you are tracking middle cards and factoring in keycards (2,3) using my count in a manner that Ray Charles would have been able to see it but unless you are doing that, it's doubtful that I could be any help on this thread. Basically, if you have a sufficient surplus of {6-9} and deficit (2,3) you are going to Stand. These are the two factors that are going to push you in the direction to stand, otherwise you always hit. With the {2-5} in even distribution if you have seven or more surplus {6-9} per deck you have crossed the line to stand. For example, If my count is 16-0-18-11r @2.25 decks remaining and I think I've seen more (2,3) go into the discard than (4,5) within the {2-5} grouping I am going to stand. It's all about the ratio of {6-9} to other groupings.

[ZeeBabar]

Tarzan, me too old to learn your count or hang with Jane. I mostly survive on I-18. Wi SD h I had the time and energy and ability to learn your count.

[KJ]

Tarzan, me too old to learn your count or hang with Jane.

I though I told you to stop with that "too old" crap....it's pathetic. "Get busy living or get busy dying." ----The Morgan Freeman Character in Shawshank Redemption.

[Freightman]

I though I told you to stop with that "too old" crap....it's pathetic. "Get busy living or get busy dying." ----The Morgan Freeman Character in Shawshank Redemption.

I thoroughly enjoyed that movie - Andy and Red showed that a great movie doesn't need boobs. Much like a couple of the old classics - 12 angry men, Failsafe.

[ZeeBabar]

I though I told you to stop with that "too old" crap....it's pathetic. "Get busy living or get busy dying." ----The Morgan Freeman Character in Shawshank Redemption.

easy to say but at 66+, I am not going to be better at dribbling basketballs or learning new counts or languages or much else. Some can fool themselves into thinking 60+ is the new 30 but it ain't fooling the hot babes.

Stop the cliches, I have never been happier than over the last few years but it's because I understand my limitations. Do you really think I should start trying to learn the Tarzan count. You use HiLo and espouse the convenience and benefits of a simple count.

[Bodarc]

Your limitations are only those you impose on yourself.

[Nikky_Flash]

Hi ZeeBar ,
you've obviously posted this for a reason ... you could've just kept all this to yourself and went to bed and woke up tomorrow and went on with it no worries /

but you didn't , you wanted to see what other players think ...
you've been on this forum about as long as me , and I can't imagine steering away from correct plays on purpose ... when I started , I trained to be correctly playing .
sure I've messed up at the tables a couple times on accident here and there ...but I NEVER ONCE did what you just did ,
.
so I think , and most of us here, NEVER do this stuff ... somewhere along the line , in your training , you go : " ah well , i'll make the plays when I want , I'm free to play however I want "
And that's it ... , my take on it is : you do what you want ... not what the correct play is ... you said it yourself in this OP .
I've seen others post like this too ... normally I would say it's none of my business , but someone sharing what they do over the Internet on a forum is looking for conversation and insight . I think guys like you are a mix of a counter that sometimes goes "rec player mode" when you "incorrectly " - "play with your gut and instincts "
... you dont' care about the money? right? this is just a hobby , fun way to make money or lose a little right ? that's ok as long as you have a good time?
How far off-base am I ?

[Tarzan]

Hopefully will not get slammed for sharing this....Sitting at a DD game, Playing HiLo, I-18, sitting at 3rd base with 2 others, TC is +5, last round of a 70% pen deal. Dealer has a 10 showing, I have an a,7,. First guy had 10,2, hits and busts (gets a 10), second guy has a pair of 3's, hits, gets a 2 and a ten. I see two 3's and two 2's in the round and I stand (probably stupid decision). Luckily for me, dealer has an 8 and it's a push. I ask the dealer what the next card was and it was a 10 so, it would not have made a difference.

however, I should have hit my Ace, 7 (maybe I could have gotten an Ace and won or gotten an 8 or 9 and lost).

I suppose that if I plan to stick with HiLo and I-18, I just have to follow the strategy and hit.

I pointed out the factors that would cause you to deviate from basic strategy, so at this point upon reviewing your play you have obviously figured out that you were making an incorrect playing decision and that you might not fare as well going with "hunches" rather than the tried and proven in the long haul. With this hand, a range of deck all compositions ranging from -10 to +13 or so, you only come up with circumstances to stand rather than hit a little over 10% of the time. Always hitting A,7vsT means being correct nearly 90% of the time and when it's off, it's likely not all that much in actual EV. If you question and second guess instead of knowing exactly what circumstances are required to deviate from basic strategy it's going to cost you money. Lots of recreational players seem to stand on A,7vsT and will even make commentary on anyone hitting it, telling them it's an incorrect decision! They do it to me all the time. I've even had the dealer question my hitting A,7vsT! The casinos will love you more if they always see you standing on this hand, that's for sure. The bottom line is that there's a lot of work to be able to know when to deviate from basic strategy on this hand but absolutely a no-brainer to follow basic strategy and be correct the vast majority of the time. By standing all the time you would fare much worse than if you were following basic strategy.

[ZeeBabar]

Now, Tarzan, that's the answe I was looking for. That, in 90% ofthe time changing the play is a mistake and that little loss of EV is involved. To me, it's like arguing if driving 3 miles over the speed limit on an empty 6 lane highway in bright sunshine and no cop in sight is a mistake. True, you would never get a ticket if you followed the rules a 100% of the times but if you ocassionally indulged in such situations, you do not suddenly become a speed demon and be labelled a bad driver.

Sometimes, on these forums, you admit to a little change in strategy in one situation that very seldom occurs (a,7 at TC-15) and all of a sudden you are no longer an AP...

[Bodarc]

I agree with you Zee. I think I'll just split my next BJ. Doesn't really matter does it?

[KJ]

.

Stop the cliches, I have never been happier than over the last few years but it's because I understand my limitations. Do you really think I should start trying to learn the Tarzan count?. You use HiLo and espouse the convenience and benefits of a simple count.

Of course I don't think you should try to learn the Tarzan Count. The Tarzan count should only be attempted by those select few freaks....like Tarzan. One of my concerns is that Tarzan sharing his expertise publicly will lead to many who are ill-equipped to do so, to attempt to follow in his footsteps. But, whatever. People make their own choices.

But my point was that you should decide not to pursue the Tarzan count because you feel it is not beneficial for you to do so, not that 'tired' old excuse of you are too old. There are many members on this site who are older than you. Some I know because they are public figures, so we know when they were born. Others I know because they have made passing references to either their age or to things and time frames that give it away. But I have never heard a single member use their age as a crutch like you do. Be better than that Zee.

Sometimes, on these forums, you admit to a little change in strategy in one situation that very seldom occurs (a,7 at TC-15) and all of a sudden you are no longer an AP...

Yikes! I believe it is even playing a round at a TC -15 that means "all of the sudden you are no longer an AP".

And I am not kidding in the slightest about this. Often during various discussions, members point out that I have opportunites with many tables available that some others do not have. I don't care if your only local casino, has only one table, you should not be playing @ TC -15. There are many creative ways to get out of that.

I do understand that many players have to play some negative counts and situations because of limitations of games. But I don't think enough players realize how big a deal this is. For every negative count round you play (even moderately negative count....let alone TC -15), you have to work that much harder in the positive (+EV counts). Work harder, spread bigger (which has it's own consequences). Players need to work harder at getting out of these negative counts, rather than work harder to overcome them...in my humble opinion. <-

[Tarzan]

I think KJ is on to something here with developing the skillset to avoid playing at TC-15 before moving on to other things! (I have never seen TC-15 and it's hard to even imagine). Even in a NMSE game you can wong out if you get to the point of no return. When the count drops off too far as you are plunking away betting minimums there needs to be a reason to stick around for the next shoe, such as a STing situation, otherwise you need to get off the table.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

An exception to the rule:

We do not want to be playing at TC -X

But what about playing at a table you do not want to leave;

perhaps one with exceptionally deep penetration.

IF there are very few rounds remaining, I stay

seated and soldier on - with minimum bets of course.

Early in the shoe ? NO.