Losing streak thread - PART SEVEN

[mickeymouse]

It should be noted that during my previous losing streak it was punctuated by a number of good winning sessions. These have not been the case this time, and I have not been able to double up my session bankroll of $600-1500 on a single session in the last 20. I have busted out on 11 occasions.

[mickeymouse]

Incidentally have now played 80 sessions and have not as yet reached an overall loss score since early in my first session.

[Three]

When you bet big you lose big and win big. It is not a sure win. You talk of how much you losing streaks were due to your big bets but most likely so were the wins which would have been much bigger had you bet bigger. Your spread is a team effort. I have found my feeling is the middle of my spread is the big money maker. Sometimes the big end brings huge windfalls and sometimes it destroys you. The trouble is you don't get to make enough of those max bets to get a feel for what is going on. Selective memory takes over. It is bred into use through the survival of the fittest to remember threatening things vividly so if you survived the threat you are more likely to survive it again in the future. For that reason it is more common for people to feel the bad is more prevalent than it actually is.

[DSchles]

Very much agree with everything you've written ... except "bread"!!!

Don

[Three]

Very much agree with everything you've written ... except "bread"!!!

Thanks Don. It didn't look right but I couldn't think of the right spelling. I didn't do the check I do for spelling issues. After you pointed it out I knew the spelling immediately. Not sire why I couldn't think of it at the time.

[BJGenius007]

Virtually all my money has been lost when the TC was +4 or greater. I have hardly won 15% of hands in the previous 15-20 sessions at the max bet. I have also been playing regular blackjack, and have yet to win a single hand in $1500 of losses at the max bet.

I believe that the venue in question is manipulating the deck to increase the house edge - and in multiples.

Since you are the OP who asked the question, could you confirm this game is Australian Pontoon, not the true Blackjack, so we could help you?

And what index plays are you using?

[marriedputter]

Not sire why I couldn't think of it at the time.

You did that spelling error on purpose, right?

[Exoter175]

Well you would have to adjust these IBA's for cost the ENHC rule etc but here is the advantage estimates if he is using a strong ace reckoned level 2 count for Sp21 S17 version.

TC -1: -0.74%
TC 0: -0.32%; 1X10
TC +1: 0.11%; 2x10
TC +2: 0.72%; 2x50
TC +3: 1.27%; 2x100
TC +4: 1.79%; 2x150
TC +5: 2.23%; 2x200

Obviously the rules of pontoon would, if that is the game in question, would have the ramp change to a more conservative ramp but I was thinking his ramp wasn't aggressive enough to make the game worth playing. The cost of the rules may may Ex right about about the +1 to +2 jump being too aggressive but I just don't know the cost. An educated guess on a ramp maxing at 2x100 isn't far off of Ex's suggestion. I favor betting green chips only when appropriate:
-1 <= TC <= +1: 1x10
TC +2: 1x25
TC +3: 2x50
TC +4: 2x75
TC +5: 2x100

You have to get the money out there when you have an advantage. Also plying strategy is very important in this game. To play an ace reckoned count you are pretty weak in playing decisions. Advantage accumulates much faster as indices are exceeded with a strong playing count. It is definitely worth the effort.

Well, you're definitely the numbers guy on this forum and I admittedly did zero calculations on this since I wasn't sure on the game, rules, etc. but the OP's spread/ramp is what threw me off at the start. It looked two fold from my perspective, both too aggressive initially, and too cautious when the "big money" needed to be played. Add them both up and it would seem as if there was a recipe there to potentially lose more than you "should" in bad swings, and win less than you should in good swings.

Virtually all my money has been lost when the TC was +4 or greater. I have hardly won 15% of hands in the previous 15-20 sessions at the max bet. I have also been playing regular blackjack, and have yet to win a single hand in $1500 of losses at the max bet.

I believe that the venue in question is manipulating the deck to increase the house edge - and in multiples.

The thing about TC+4 and beyond is that even though our big bets and "bread and butter" wins tend to come from that realm of play, we aren't actually attaining a tangible win value over the house in the sense of us winning 60% of all hands vs. losing 40%. Its likely more accurately something like a 43/43/14 scenario of Pwin/Dwin/Push. The inherent reason we wager so highly in those higher TC's isn't necessarily because we'll have the greater opportunity to win "more", rather, we just get the maximum value for our money wagered in these scenarios.

[Blitzkrieg]

I am convinced that the worm will never turn, I will not recover from this losing streak and it is a simple matter of time before I lose all my profits and head into negative territory. As a result, I have made the decision that I will no longer be playing*. I would like to thank everyone here for their advice during the time that I have played - it was nice joyride while it lasted.

*Qualification: I may, occasionally, drop a couple of hundred dollars on a Friday night after work as a bit of fun, and on those occasions I will still play optimally according to the rules. But I won't be committing time to play the game to build up a bankroll.

It almost seems as if you fulfilled a self-fulfilling prophecy Mickey. Quitting while your still ahead may be the best bet.