Are you a BJ AP or a BJ addict??

[Exoter175]

Ex, I agree with a lot of that giant post. You might want to stop assuming you know what I do because many members here do know what I do and you just make yourself look silly because your assumptions are always so far off. The way I look at it, I can get very predictable results at a much higher EV under certain conditions and a much lower EV with far more unpredictable results under other conditions. My problem is not getting in enough hours. It is making too much money. If I play too much and get banned to take that cut in pay at a much higher volatility I get hurt in many ways. I lose that cash cow store. That costs a boatload. I don't get to enjoy the other things that are available to do on my trip. Life is too short and the greedy get banned and never get to experience life in the exotic locations they visit. This is a beautiful country with lots to see and do. Sometimes the biggest profit from a trip is an experience rather than money.

Now if I want to choose to stay in the casino there are lots of opportunities I can check out. Most of the best are only available under the right conditions and those conditions are predictable. But if I am hitting the casino win tolerance threshold everyday what sense does it make to lose that store simply because you want even more money because you are an addict to gambling. This is a business. You will find out the casinos will eventually ban you if you are greedy and the greedier you are the quicker it happens. So you made a little extra for a little while but then you lose a ton of potential profits when you get banned. You seem to have a bean counter type take on things. Those accounting experts always fail to see the big picture and end up losing far more than what they save or make when all things are considered. That is just my opinion as one from the longevity camp. Others are in the slash and burn camp and have a totally different take on what is best for them. That is fine. We all make our choices on style of attack but if you seek longevity make sure that what you do ensures it.

You're preaching to the choir T3, I'd like to think I'm likely the foremost advocate on this forum as far as "win tolerance" is concerned, in the realm of longevity.

My points, which appear to have flown a little too high for their target, were simply this.

1. Time spent not making money, is not efficiently spent time. We only have so many hours in our day, so many hours in our lifetime to "do this" that one must work as efficiently as possible. Granted, most of you do this as supplemental income on a part time or near part time basis, and I've transitioned this into a full-blown job working 12-16 hour days 5 days a week. If my target goal is to achieve a net 1.15% advantage for the games I play, I'm not going to waste a trip by not playing a net 1.08% advantage game. I'll play it as long as my time for that shift/day/whatever wouldn't net me a higher yield by otherwise changing venues etc. Of course, we must pick our battles, know when to get in and get out, but all "common sense" aside, we must also get in the hours we need to "survive", and sometimes that means playing a "sub standard" game to our liking because we'd otherwise be wasting our time and effective money for that day or trip. Its like my bartender friend once said, sometimes you have to settle on a 6 or a 7 at 11 o'clock instead of holding out to land the last 8 or 9 before midnight.

2. Any AP worth his or her weight in gold SHOULD have a "fallback" approach to each trip. IE, lets say you know of a place that has a game that yields a 1.38% net advantage, and you head to that location which is a two hour drive, knowing that if the conditions aren't right, you'll otherwise be wasting your time. You SHOULD have a "fallback" in place well ahead of that trip that goes into the determination of making that trip. This falls largely in the "other AP stuff" category, like VUXing, or machine advantages that the particular target casino might have to offer. Should you show up at your target casino and find the conditions aren't yet where they need to be, but will likely soon land in that threshold, you should have the ability to "fallback" on "other" AP tricks and tactics to make money. There's no sense in back counting a crowded table for two hours while waiting for the crowds to die down, but if you've got otherwise lucrative "plays" in the same casino that would allow you to make money while you "wait it out" you should be attending to those first. On top of that, it goes towards the "due diligence" of "scouting" conditions as an AP to find out whether these casinos might or might not have "other" AP targets in the same facility, and it should affect your judgement on your planned outings.

While I rely on blackjack as the "meat and potatoes" part of my AP ventures, a lot of my "downtime" waiting on conditions has been better served doing "other" AP stuff. Suffice to say, I'm about 3.5 months AHEAD of my projection for the year and will be knocking on the door of 6 figures, as a red chipper, by mid July barring any setbacks.

Ex Man. Always like reading your posts. But you have to take what the game will give you. And the less time you can attain your just rewards the better. I think the fact of we are "not" suppose to win is being overlooked.

I completely agree with you here bud. We can't afford NOT to play, while at the same not we cannot afford to waste our time playing very awful games, while simultaneously we cannot afford to waste our time not playing. This is where the "other" AP stuff comes in handy for me to fill in the dead times with constant +EV situations until we can "afford" to sit down at the table and get our time in. Just the other day I hit a 4x 4A+2 on .25DDBP while "waiting" for the crowds to tail off a little. Made about $2k in 5 minutes, while making ~$375 in 5 hours hopping tables. Of course, not every night is like this, but the point I'm trying to make here is that if you're going to go to a casino for the night and "wait it out", you might be better off served on other AP plays if that waiting period is extended based on conditions like crowding.

In the end, its all about how well you scout, and the repertoire that you bring into the building.

[Exoter175]

Ex Man: That $2k you made is 5 minutes in called "being in the zone." I'm sure you've experienced that in golf and football. It just doesn't happen without alot of hard word...primarlily because we can't recognize it when it comes. Variance in blackjack is similar to Chemistry in dating...very hard to define and both comes in good and bad seemingly for no particular reason. Therefore, one "must" know thyself and their game...to avoid going fruit loops. Ironic, both are improved by you sentence above "In the end, its all about how well you scout, and the repertoire that you bring into the building."

I'd rather chalk it up to the age old adage "Better to be lucky than good". Although, I've had my fair share of "chunk" plays like that where in just a matter of minutes I'd make nearly the value of an "average day" just by being in the right place at the right time. In all honesty, however, its more of a cocktail or sorts. 1 part Luck, 1 part Repertoire, 1 part Scouting, and 1 part Time Management.

Knowing what I know now, and my penchant for constantly evolving my game, I just couldn't imagine someone actually wasting hours of their day back counting a table that they wouldn't sit at unless it hit a degree of playability that only measures in the 1-10% range of a theoretical "all hands seen" approach on a recyclable model system yielding only a handful of "playable" situations per hour or per day, while you could otherwise be using that time to use other techniques, or refine "your" game so that you'd be able to actually wager a larger number of hands per hour spent in the casino both playing and back counting, be it through scouting or an adjustment of bet ramp/count/spread/etc.