Inaccurate Results? High Risk of Ruin on 1,000 Unit Bankroll

[SaulSilver]

I feel like the results I'm getting from my sim are off or I probably have a setting wrong, or something. I'm trying to sim a $5,000 bankroll with a $5 betting unit 1-12 spread in an average game (6 deck, h17 das, 75% pen)

CVCX is saying my risk of ruin is 23.5%? With a 1,000 unit bankroll I was under the impression it should be around a ~1% risk of ruin.

Can anyone confirm this ROR or see whats wrong?

[Norm]

Why would you expect a better RoR with such a bad game and a 1:12 spread? Looks correct to me.

[SaulSilver]

The details of this article http://www.blackjackapprenticeship.c...jack-bankroll/ made me think it should be less risk/more ev.

"2. $5,000 Bankroll – Using the same bet spread I calculated for the $1,000 bankroll, that would generate the same $10/hr EV, but with only 2% Risk of Ruin. Or, if you’re willing to go up to 10% Risk of Ruin, you could generate closer to $16/hr..."

[Norm]

That article includes wonging-out. Makes a huge difference.

[Stealth]

Can anyone confirm this ROR or see whats wrong?

There is nothing wrong with the sim. With this scenario and for this session you are over betting kelly (1.38) on the play. The vast majority of the "action" you place when making this play is at a negative count. Only playing a TC+2 or above will cut the RoR a little more than half but it won't be 1%!

Hope this helps.

[stopgambling]

Must WONG with small bankroll . You are playing with a very small advantage ,do the best you can to maximize your chance of success.

[Three]

You are playing with a very small advantage ,do the best you can to maximize your chance of success

This s an important statement. There are a lot of ways to increase your chances of success.