Originally Posted by Norm
Never thought of that! That might actually be useful in some situations.
You are not trying to maximize gain on each hand you are focusing on maximizing longevity. A creative mind could come up with lots of variations on this idea. Often giving up some EV can allow you to bet more netting a gain in EV overall. This is true in one way with RA indices but also is true with smart use of cover. You have to remember that if you bust one BR you still have the other. Ev assumes you play all the TC's in each bin. If you played The TC to a single decimal as the x.75 or higher TC's at the higher ramp and lower than x.25 TC's at the lower ramp for any of TC "x" you would be betting at the top of each betting bin's advantage with your higher ramp and when you are in the bottom of the betting bin's TC you could bet the lower ramp. This should increase the success rate of the higher ramp while hurting the success rate of the lower ramp if each were play-all. In the middle range between x.25 and x.75 you can use some other criterion for switching ramps.
Yeah, so? BR-A is 1/3 of the BR, and BR-B is 2/3 of the BR (or whichever ratios you prefer).
Thinking more about what KJ said, I think it CAN (not necessarily always will) bring heat really fast. All you need is a decent sized jump ($10 to $50 or w/e you're betting) then get hit with a blackjack while a boss is watching, and he may go straight to the phone.
KJ's approach is more of sneak in, don't make any noise, and sneak out.
This alternating bankrolls approach is a "LOOK AT ME IM SPREADING MY MONEY AROUND LOOK OVER HERE'.
You don't want them to ever look at you or take notice if you're gonna hit-n-run.
If you're going to camp out for hours at a time, then this may be a better approach.
Last edited by RS; 05-15-2015 at 12:30 AM.
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
That would be me. I would definitely hit-and-run if the casinos in my area were as common as McDonald's and Starbucks, but they are not. So to my original question, how do you know when you have depleted one bankroll when you can not keep track of it in the casino? Do you just add up your total gain or loss and deplete the BRs equally at home on paper and start over? Is this what you're getting at? Otherwise, I can't understand how one could play with two bankrolls, alternate between the two in the casino, and know what has been gained or lost from each one.
I am as good as "known" in my local places. That shipped sailed a long time ago. I feel confident that I can get away with a decent spread there due to playing there for several years and not having a problem. I know which places I can do this and which I can't. I sincerely appreciate the warning though. I know you probably mean well with this, but I know my local stores well.
Last edited by counter19; 05-15-2015 at 07:16 AM.
Although I can't speak as to what others hand in mind, this is how I understood how the process would work. You would calculate your ramp separately but pretty much any other stat or figure you would just leave as one BR. Even though you're using 'two' BRs as a single BR, I don't see why you can't just treat the non-pertinent aspects as a single BR. I'd think with the whole alternating strategy you calculate an X winrate, with Y SD and Z N0 for the total BR and just be done with it. Record all win/loss as just one BR.
I don't think any of us envisioned someone actually walking around with two separate bankrolls. I think the single BR was implied.
But the bottom line is I don't see this strategy as that favorable when weighing pros and cons. Cons: Higher variance, swings and a larger N0. Pros: Some cover, but I really don't see it buying you that much cover....maybe a little bit. But whatever....to each his own, I guess.
Not sure I understand this conclusion. NEH comment about one BR is relevant.
The concept is meant as a cover play. All the machinations about RoR, kelly, etc can (and in my opinion) should be looked at as one bankroll. So, I determine the correct bet sizes for my TOTAL bankroll and then split it in some designed way to allow it to look like I am not betting with the count. Up on one hand when the count goes down on the down on another when the count goes up, up a unit on both if they win, whatever makes sense. Apply some of that "creative art" of what we do. "Gonna bet more on this hand because it has been luckier, now watch me get a blackjack on the other one, just my luck!" I am, however, betting the correct total amount for my bankroll (sum of bet 1 and bet 2) and the two spots will reduce the variance and the EV will remain the same as one hand.
Dr. Reid took it to a level of doing all the calculations for bet sizing, etc when the intent is to provide cover. Don't need all that mental masturbation. Concept is betting structure that allows me to, perhaps, confuse the count hunters. Keep it simple and focus on the intent and fit to your situation.
Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!
Betting different amounts will raise RoR and n0. The effect of this is you must either accept this or net less to maintain your RoR. If you accept it the swings will be brutal but you will get them both ways. If you don't worry about these things you better have the BR to handle the swings.
It s better to think of things as two BR's. It makes the important things far less complicated even though it seems to make things less complicated. You can break your banks anytime and set new banks proportionally if need be. The long run doesn't know when you won or lost and everything will average out eventually. It will just take a lot longer to average out. If you are lucky the right BR will grow and you can up your bet more earlier than usual on the big ramp.
I hear ya, stealth. I just wonder how much all that effort gets ya. The guy upstairs can't hear a single word of your "creative art". He is just looking down thinking this guy bet a total of $80 on his two hands a minute ago, now the count is higher and he is betting a total of $160.
But, if it is working for you, power to ya. Whatever works.
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