Introducing Myself

[Dieter]

I know that it's not a flawless system.

Most systems are not flawless.

Do you recognize the flaws?

[mustang]

I hate to be a party pooper but isn't Martingale just another myth? As far as I know, specially after reading Modern blackjack, it seems that counting is the only way to increase ones advantage in BJ.

Edit: I figured this is being discussed in another thread

[ZeeBabar]

I have lost 10 bets in a row a few times. If I doubled after a loss (regardless of the count), my betting would have been $25, $50, $100, $200, $400, $800, $1600, $3200, $6400, $12,400 on the 10th bet but I think they would not have let me double after the 5th consecutive loss as table max was $5000.

You are on the wrong forum if you do not count cards and simply double after losses.

[Cloudstreets7087]

Hi Pokerplayer,

I would rate my knowledge level to be about the intermediate level...although after reading a few threads, I feel like a total newb. LOL

I play a slightly different way than most people do. Basically, I double my bet if I lose, and then reset to the minimum once I win.

As far as your second question, yes, both. I'd love to network with some other local (Vegas) players as well!

Wouldn't it be great if you could forecast through probability when the shoe was going to be in your favor and then put out more money? This way you could minimize your investment at the table and only push more money in when the odds favored you. If only such a system existed...

[koreancowboy]

Wouldn't it be great if you could forecast through probability when the shoe was going to be in your favor and then put out more money? This way you could minimize your investment at the table and only push more money in when the odds favored you. If only such a system existed...

LOL yes, if only. :-P

[koreancowboy]

I have lost 10 bets in a row a few times. If I doubled after a loss (regardless of the count), my betting would have been $25, $50, $100, $200, $400, $800, $1600, $3200, $6400, $12,400 on the 10th bet but I think they would not have let me double after the 5th consecutive loss as table max was $5000.

You are on the wrong forum if you do not count cards and simply double after losses.

Yeah, it appears to be that way ZeeBabar.

[Three]

I have lost 23 hands in a row. If I were using a 7 step martingale I would have lost all bets in my progression 3 times in 23 hands before making that 1 unit on the 4th progression. That would be a net loss of 191 units in 23 hands.

The math is really simple. The Commutative Law of Addition tells you that if you rearrange numbers added together in any order they still add to the same sum. You may remember it as (A+B)+C = A+(B+C) when you learned it in elementary school. So you have progressions that all add to a win of 1 unit or you lose 2^n-1 units as your result of any progression where n is the number of bets in a progression. The sum of all progressions look like this:

P1 + P2 + P3 + ... + Pn where n is the last progression you have played.

Now that basic elementary school lesson on Commutative Law of addition we know we can express this same sum as all the bet results of the same size grouped together and still get the same answer. So we get the sum of all your 1 unit bet results as the new first grouping in the we will call this grouping of like sized bets B1 and each step in the up will be called B2 for the sum of the results for the second bet in your progression etc. So if you have a 7 step progression the sum of your results will look like this after regrouping them into same size bet results before adding groups together:

B1 + B2 + B3 + B4 + B5 + B6 + B7.

Where B1 is the sum of all your 1 unit bet results, B2 is the sum of all your 2 unit bet results, B3 is the sum of all your 4 unit bet results, B4 is the sum of all your 8 unit bet results, B5 is the sum of all your 16 unit bet results, B6 is the sum of all your 32 unit bet results and B7 is the sum of all your 64 unit bet results. In the long run you expect to win and lose the same percentage of bets made in each group. You will just reach a large number of bets for your lowest bets first. When each group reaches a large number of bets it will be close to expected results. Once that happens you have a grouping of bets of the same size that are all flat betting and should all be close to the expectation of the total of the bets made at that amount times the house edge.

The elementary school's first law of math taught to students tells you that your results will be the same as if you sat at the table and flat bet each bet size for the number of bets made and then switched to another bet size and flat bet that for a long time until all appropriate bets were made flat betting rather than in a progression. I doubt you are going to think flat betting gives you an advantage in the casino. What the progression accomplishes is it orders your results so they come in a string of 1 unit wins with occasional catastrophic losses. The top bet is made so rarely that it takes a long time for the law of large numbers to make that result that drives the short term success or failure approach expectation. Some martingalers learn early by having the early experience with this betting style have more top bet losses than expected and they lose a boatload early and quit. Others start by winning more top bets than expected and think they have stumbled onto a gold mine. If they don't quit the law of large numbers will catch up with them eventually and they will lose all their profits and more until they realize they didn't have a winning system to begin with.

http://www.bymath.com/studyguide/ari/ari4.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

[Avincow]

Wouldn't it be great if you could forecast through probability when the shoe was going to be in your favor and then put out more money? This way you could minimize your investment at the table and only push more money in when the odds favored you. If only such a system existed...

LOL yes, if only. :-P

Dang, like what if there was some way to keep a running count of the cards left in the deck....like to tell you if there are a lot of tens and aces left.....surely such a system could tell you to bet more when such cards comprise the majority of the remaining deck....I wonder if anyone has devised such a system......surely if such a system existed, I imagine there would be many books written about the subject over past several decades......hah, I bet such a system is bound to be featured in a movie starring some big shot actor such as Kevin Spacey! LOL. One can dream, right?

[Norm]

Screw that. I just want to predict the reaction from a fashion model when I try to be clever.

[Cloudstreets7087]

Dang, like what if there was some way to keep a running count of the cards left in the deck....like to tell you if there are a lot of tens and aces left.....surely such a system could tell you to bet more when such cards comprise the majority of the remaining deck....I wonder if anyone has devised such a system......surely if such a system existed, I imagine there would be many books written about the subject over past several decades......hah, I bet such a system is bound to be featured in a movie starring some big shot actor such as Kevin Spacey! LOL. One can dream, right?

Now you're talking crazy talk. Running count.... HA!!!

[koreancowboy]

You will find this site to be a source of answers for your many questions in your quest for improvement.

Good luck and maybe we can meet sometime since I also live in Vegas.

Thanks! And awesome, I dig Vegas.

[koreancowboy]

Dang, like what if there was some way to keep a running count of the cards left in the deck....like to tell you if there are a lot of tens and aces left.....surely such a system could tell you to bet more when such cards comprise the majority of the remaining deck....I wonder if anyone has devised such a system......surely if such a system existed, I imagine there would be many books written about the subject over past several decades......hah, I bet such a system is bound to be featured in a movie starring some big shot actor such as Kevin Spacey! LOL. One can dream, right?

LOL apparently the "M" word is like the ultimate four-letter word around here.

That's my betting system, but I don't live and die by it. Sometimes I'll just bet the table minimum during the middle of the session.

Also, that's the betting system that I use, not my overall system. I do keep track of the cards and watch for patterns.

[Bodarc]

You're doing good cowboy......don't change a thing.