New losing streak rant

[mickeymouse]

I just wanted to update everyone here with how things are going.

I recovered from my losing streak reaching a new all-time high, but soon hit another bad losing streak, and have now lost four successive sessions, the first time I have done so this entire year.

The last two sessions have been bad. On the weekend, I was playing with one other person on the table. As the count improved drastically, naturally I increased my bets. This player, whom it was obvious had no idea how to play (he was standing on a 13 against a dealer X), accused me of card counting and told the dealer. The dealer, a sour faced woman in her early thirties, replied nonchalantly, "it won't help him anyway." The count remained high for the rest of the shoe (+4 to +6) and I promptly lost $700 without ever being ahead.

I encountered no heat today in my latest session, but in the three shoes where the count reached +4 or higher, I did not win a SINGLE hand. I just kept getting dealt 15's and 16's non stop.

I am now only $4700 ahead for the year whereas I was $8250 up at my last ATH. Somehow I don't feel as despondent as my last losing streak (my nadir was $2100 in front) because every session played is just more EV. But I do seem to be great at experiencing negative variation. Why do I ALWAYS have to be at the extreme left of the Gaussian curve at everything I do? I just want to kick the world up its fish ass.

[muckz]

Seriously? Many members already told you that you are on the far right of the normal distribution. If you keep up these borderline moronic posts you may end up being zee#2. I suggest you start reading dons book instead of watching 21.

[Jabberwocky]

If you have a problem with losing streaks, offer to be someone's stakehorse.

[Orangechip2]

H17, packed table conditions ? I would suggest you try giving it a shot at the quarter level. Get into a good heads up game. What I mean by good is good pen, & better rules than the nickel table. Don't change your max bet if you do decide to try what I suggested . Base bet $25, move accordingly w/ the TC, Wong out @ -1

[Avincow]

My all time high for the year was about $7200. And now I'm at $4000. There are times where you cant stop winning and there are times when you can't stop losing. It messes with you mind, I know.

[Jabberwocky]

Forget ATHs. You won't see it 98% of the time.

[NotEnoughHeat]

Forget ATHs. You won't see it 98% of the time.

This is important to point out. ATH, while fun to keep track off, don't sweat it too much.

For me, I've moved to a different game with a different attack. Much juicier, from the fifth session to eleventh session in, four out of seven were all time highs. However, keep in mind, the larger the group size you use (hand to shoe, to session, to etc. etc.) the easier it is to see 'all time highs'. If you have an advantage, you can easily do some statistical trickery and break up your play time in such a way that you never lose! That way, you're always at an all time high!

I am still investigating a huge loss for me that resulted in roughly 17 max bets in a single shorter than average session. I realized that I made some methodological errors in the significance tests, and I'll be able to spit out some accurate SD numbers once I figure out how to use this damned software Norm practically forced on me by making me like this site so much. I was up 0.6SDs in this new game before the hit. Now I'm just a smidge below expectation. The single session downswing was unprecedented, however, I think it may be a 'perfect storm' scenario where a lot of things (include my own mistakes and errors) came together all at once. I'm going to throw out a guess and say the session was probably a loss of 2SDs and the monster front-runner shoe closer, give or take a lot due to my uncertainty, 3SDs.

It felt sickening to lose close to 20% of my stack in the last week (not at all, but I might as well be a tad melodramatic about it when I can).

P.S. while it can be fun or even therapeutic to talk about results, it is important to learn to be less hung up on them and have faith in the math. If you continue like this, imagine how you'll feel when you're playing x10 the stakes and you're losing x10 as much. There is real mental and emotional risk to blackjack. Get control of it before it gets control of you.

[SiMi]

Hey, MM!

Thanks for the update. I enjoy reading your posts.

I was surprised to read that a player accused you of counting to the Dealer! WTH?? I mean, there's been lots of joking comments about counting at the tables but I've never had anyone intentionally and seriously 'rat' on me (or anyone else) to the Dealer as a card counter. What an a$$ hat!! It's hard to imagine what the jerk was thinking, especially if you were losing a lot. Did you do something nasty to the guy? Did you respond to these accusations or just stay silent?

It's also interesting that you encountered no heat today. Same place, right? Is that typical? It's possible that the joint you're playing at doesn't care in general or possibly only because your current level of play is not high enough to threaten them. Do you have a feel for that?

I think it would be more useful to look at your actual results vs. EV from the beginning of time to today rather than on a YTD, yearly or other "artificially-contrived" time period. This might give you a good feel for your position on the Normal Curve. You say your low point was +$2100 and you were +$8250 and now you're +$4700. If we knew your EV at these various times, we could see how your actual results compare to your expected results and see how you're doing. Maybe you are NOT on the left side of the Normal Curve at all! Maybe you're really lucky!

I don't like to look at results from some artificial, human-devised time period that the Law of Large Numbers doesn't recognize (such as yearly results). I keep a "running count" from the beginning of time to today and constantly assess how my actual results compare to expectations. Of course, that requires good record keeping...

Anyway, thanks again for posting the update and best of luck to you!
SiMi

[stopgambling]

it is called jealously . a typical human behavior.

[NotEnoughHeat]

I think it would be more useful to look at your actual results vs. EV from the beginning of time to today rather than on a YTD, yearly or other "artificially-contrived" time period. This might give you a good feel for your position on the Normal Curve. You say your low point was +$2100 and you were +$8250 and now you're +$4700. If we knew your EV at these various times, we could see how your actual results compare to your expected results and see how you're doing. Maybe you are NOT on the left side of the Normal Curve at all! Maybe you're really lucky!

I don't like to look at results from some artificial, human-devised time period that the Law of Large Numbers doesn't recognize (such as yearly results). I keep a "running count" from the beginning of time to today and constantly assess how my actual results compare to expectations. Of course, that requires good record keeping...

Hear, hear! I have had a few rants myself mentioning this. When you run a company, there is good reason to put stats in an annual, monthly, etc. basis, since so many things will naturally run and depend on those divisions of time.

However, time is irrelevant to blackjack. Time is only relevant when it is in reference to the amount of rounds played or your hourly rate. Otherwise to base anything off days, weeks and what not (*cough* bankroll size *cough*)¹ is just either silly or arbitrary. Rounds are your base of unit of 'time' in blackjack. Playing one hand an hour for one hundred hours is equivalent, ceteris paribus, to playing one hundred hands an hour for one hour. It is one hundred rounds either way.

Footnote[1]: in case you don't want to search for the old thread I'm referring to, here is the gist of it. I was saying that it is silly to base your effective bankroll, when using a replenishable roll, on your monthly or yearly contribution without any respect (comparison) to how frequently you play. It seems obvious that your effective bankroll should be different if you are playing 10 hours a month compared to 160.