Hey I am looking for some help figuring out EV for blackjack given a particular match bonus % and a play through requirement. This actually might not be the best way to gauge if a play like this is profitable and maybe a better way would be to find standard deviation and see if the bonus would offset that? Any suggestions or thoughts would be helpful. Thanks.
Standard Deviation is (1.1 x SQRT(Number of Hands)) x Bet. So if you play 100 hands betting $100 one SD is $1100. If your EV is -$40 then your expected result would be between -1140 and +1060 68% of the time.
EV is linear, it's always total action x house edge. So if your play requirement is to wager $10,000 total action against an 0.4% house advantage then your expected loss is $40 If you want 2% advantage on your play then you'd need a coupon of at least $240.
In many cases you will notice, for a no-deposit bonus, that the play through requirement will actually generate a greater expected loss than your bonus value. These cases you're hoping for enough swings to last you through the requirement.
Also, you may need to divide the total action you need by the percentage a particular game contributes to the play through requirement. Many online casinos will have different games contribute different percentages. Ex. $100 on roulette only contribute $50 towards your requirement.
Okay I will just say the bonus because I don't think it matters that much and maybe someone can help me work through the math. First, the standard deviation is always that formula no matter what the rules? I just cashed out from this particular casino and they have been emailing me bonuses since. They keep getting better and this is the best I was offered. I it is a 350% matched deposit with a 40x play through on all table games and 30x slots. Max withdraw is 20x deposit. I have no idea how to begin to figure out if this is good or not since there are so many variables. If I'm going to accept I have to deposit by midnight so let me know how I can figure out if this is worth it or not. Some might think I shouldn't share the specific info, but I wasn't playing at this online casino ever again and if I just burned a bridge I do not mind that much. Thanks
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I just worked through everything and used a .002% house edge since it is pretty much a CSM. It looks like even with +1 sd it would not be profitable. I'm not 100% sure if I worked it out correctly, but that is what I calculated.
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This is definitely super ++++EV I would dream to get an offer like this. Hammer it for the max...
www.beatingbonuses.com
Standard Deviation definitely varies between rules, but ever so slightly for the BS player. If I remember correctly, it's usually always around 1.12-1.13, perhaps even 1.11 and 1.14 as well sometimes. However, that quoted number only applies to basic strategy. Since different true count levels have their own SD and you're bet sizing is non-random, you will not have the same SD (1.1 or w/e) while counting.Originally Posted by tjr5259
An edge of 0.2% is plausible (really low, but plausible). Perhaps you confused the decimal with the percentage (0.002 = 0.2%)
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