Using camouflage in home based casinos

[Nyne]

OK, if you use the Catch 22 and do not adjust those, you are probably not giving up much. The other index plays have a diminishing impact on your overall results, and merely shifting the index a couple of numbers further from zero is still better than not using that index at all. But, right is right and wrong is wrong. If you don't commit more indices to memory, I wouldn't take much issue with that. The return on effort diminishes as you add more and more index plays to your repertoire, and how far to go with that is a personal decision. But if you know an index and don't use it, that is throwing money away. If you know a play is correct, and you would play it correctly for $100 or $500, why would you not also play it correctly for $5 or $25? The size of your bankroll is irrelevant as long as your bets are correct for your bankroll. The risk averse indices already ensure that you are maximizing the risk adjusted returns rather than simply maximizing EV.

[BoSox]

Nyne,For the record I feel the I18 and Fab4,and the catch 22 (for me the catch 20 I am not allowed to split ten value cards where I play) are the meat and potatoes for getting the money in the deviations needed to succeed. Do I use more? The answer is yes (periodically) not for any small extra ev gain, but for other reasons I already covered in the first post in the thread. Speaking of that first post, the first line I wrote was "this post is not meant for red chip players" because I do not want to encourage beginners to stray from the basics when it is totally unnecessary.

BoSox

[ZeeBabar]

You guys are making a big deal over something minimal. Sometimes we play more conservatively and bet with a lesser max bet at one casino than another because of imagined heat consideration. There are some who would argue that if you are deviating your max bet, you are making a mistake, that the heat is imagined, that you are leaving money on the table. There can be many reasons for doubling for less.

[Bigdaddy]

I play unrated in my home based casino, which I frequent a little too often. It is the only game in town. I often play no mid-shoe entry games and spread from light green to mid-black.

I'm in exactly the same boat - playing in my regional casino - the only game in town - playing 2 times a week at a two-deck pitch game spreading from $25 - $150. Pretty much the same crew and the same players on every trip. They do know my name and put me in the computer even when I don't present my player's card.

Here's the funny part. A little while back, I work my way into the crowded table and sit next to one of the regulars who has stacks of green all around him. I see him betting one green on most every hand, so I have to ask the question: "why do you keep such a large stack if you're only betting one at a time?" To this he replies loudly (so the whole table can hear): "I count cards". I said "ok/great - let me know when the count gets good". Needless to say the count goes through the roof later on in the deck and he's still betting one chip. So who knows? Maybe this casino is so out of it that they don't care about a self-proclaimed card counter? Or maybe they've reviewed his play and determined him to be the buffoon that he is. Probably the latter.

One more funny thing - this pitch game consistently goes to about 80 - 85% pen. Last week, I was in a game when the dealer proudly announced after finishing the last hand: "Look - only one card left!" I kid you not. And, no - I'm not telling you where this casino is!!

[ZeeBabar]

I'm in exactly the same boat - playing in my regional casino - the only game in town - playing 2 times a week at a two-deck pitch game spreading from $25 - $150. Pretty much the same crew and the same players on every trip. They do know my name and put me in the computer even when I don't present my player's card.

Here's the funny part. A little while back, I work my way into the crowded table and sit next to one of the regulars who has stacks of green all around him. I see him betting one green on most every hand, so I have to ask the question: "why do you keep such a large stack if you're only betting one at a time?" To this he replies loudly (so the whole table can hear): "I count cards". I said "ok/great - let me know when the count gets good". Needless to say the count goes through the roof later on in the deck and he's still betting one chip. So who knows? Maybe this casino is so out of it that they don't care about a self-proclaimed card counter? Or maybe they've reviewed his play and determined him to be the buffoon that he is. Probably the latter.

One more funny thing - this pitch game consistently goes to about 80 - 85% pen. Last week, I was in a game when the dealer proudly announced after finishing the last hand: "Look - only one card left!" I kid you not. And, no - I'm not telling you where this casino is!!

The guy was probably counting for Playing Efficiency only, was probably flat betted. It is why he loudly said he was a card counter (being sarcastic). They cannot throw out a card counter in Missouri so they flat bet a player.

[kripton]

Thinking out of the box >> perfect camouflage for a starter, who is will to sacrifice his soul for a penny

[Nyne]

You guys are making a big deal over something minimal. Sometimes we play more conservatively and bet with a lesser max bet at one casino than another because of imagined heat consideration. There are some who would argue that if you are deviating your max bet, you are making a mistake, that the heat is imagined, that you are leaving money on the table. There can be many reasons for doubling for less.

If you've got a reason to leave some money on the table, especially for the purpose of extending your longevity, that's fine. We could argue over whether the cost is worth the benefit, but the idea is sound at least. That's not what this is about. The OP suggested making some additional correct index plays in the name of camo, but said red chippers should not do that. When questioned, the response was "For a majority of players it is far better to not risk say a double down bet for a very slight edge, for bankroll considerations." This is a fundamental misunderstanding. The risk averse indices consider risk to the bankroll, so if the risk averse index says double, your bankroll is better off if you double. Same for splitting. I'm not trying to make this into a big deal, but I don't want people reading this and deciding that they should ignore the indexes because a play "feels" risky. The best way to grow your bankroll is to use the indices exactly as CVData calculates them. I also agree that, after the OP explained that he follows the Catch 22 religiously and only alters his index play on the other hands, this is a relatively small leak. And again, if you believe the benefit exceeds the cost, go for it. I feel differently, but I won't debate that part of the equation. I just want it to be an informed decision, not a mistaken belief that it's the smart way to go for bankroll preservation.

[BoSox]

I'm not trying to make this into a big deal, but I don't want people reading this and deciding that they should ignore the indexes because a play "feels" risky.

Excuse me but I do not play on feelings.

I also agree that, after the OP explained that he follows the Catch 22 religiously and only alters his index play on the other hands, this is a relatively small leak.

My knowledge of index play was gained before the first BJ attack book was written.I used the numbers in Professional BJ by Stanford Wong. After reading about the " I18 and Fab 4 " in Arnold Synder's Quarterly Forum and the subsequent first book by Don Schlesinger the whole process became much easier. I am very grateful for all of Don's contributions. The question remained what was I going to do with the other index plays still in my memory bank? The ones that concerned me the most were many soft double index plays, and I often asked these questions on Wong's free and paid sites. Don S and the late Math Professor were always very kind to answer. The bottom line is many of these plays the risk/reward ratio is a very poor value that amounted to coin flips. For example when I might have two hands at $800 each and both hands are soft 13 against the dealers 4 up card with a true count of say +4 and I happen to pass on the doubles please forgive me for the small leak. After all it is not about the extra $1600 for the doubles it is all about the extra $.79 of EV right.

[Three]

Not sure I agree or understand this one. Unless in a different context. You should make the correct play no matter what your bankroll is. If you can't, then you are OVERBETTING. The only time I could see that being a possibility is if you were at a particularly large count; had a very large bet out; and were reaching some bankroll "goal" or all time high, and didn't want to take the chance to hurt that opportunity. But the "numbers" or "correct" decision, would always say double when you had that opportunity, I would believe. Even if for the purposes of your goal, it would still NOT be the proper play but WOULD be right for your situation personally. To think otherwise would be to play like John Patrick states as to never splitting 8's v. 10 up card, etc.

Say you have a $500 bet out and the EV is $200 and doubling your bet to $1000 had an EV of $200.01 would you double? EV maximizing says to double but this increases variance with almost exactly the same EV. This is why many use risk averse indices. If the EV gain is slow as the index is exceeded they may wait until the TC is high enough over the EV maximizing index to have a decent increase in advantage.

[Stealth]

KJ is correct and this is especially true in local casinos. I go to the same casino 3-6 times a week, always at the same time and always find the same folks working there and they all know me. A bit of ratholing, ensuring they know every time I lose, cashing only $200 every time I play their DD game ($25) and then cashing at $100 each time I am short in a double or splitting situation means that the dealer calls out the change, they walk over and put the loss down, and a few other tricks seemed to have worked. At the end of a year playing, I went and got my won/loss record printed out and it showed me down some $8000+ when, in reality, I had won over $3k from them. I showed that to the pit crew as I *****ed about my wife being right, that I had lost more than I had thought but I think I have become a better player and my losses are far less this year. They now know me well, think I am a good player and they will just slowly grind away at me. I play exactly to the count, spread 1-5/6, always stay between 60-90 minutes and leave (almost daily). I f I win more than $1k, I will skip a few days before returning but otherwise, I will rathole and leave making a comment that I lost $75 or won $25 or some such.

By now, they have probably figured Bosox as a good player they will grind out over time and they let him play.

Z, this sound like a program that works. If your win rate is sufficient to make you happy then keep it up! Expect more heat as the greens turn black or just hold the line and nip, nip nip! Love to hear about the players that understand both the art and the science!!!

[Shadowless]

Each casino has different tolerance levels; they'll let you play for awhile as long as you're polite, not greedy, don't play long sessions, and take care of the dealers and cocktail waitresses.

Everyone should keep in mind that only the shift bosses, table games manager and CMs can back players off. Regular floor supervisors don't have that power -- they have to notify someone higher up to take action.

[kripton]

if the ev gain is slow as the index is exceeded they may wait until the tc is high enough over the ev maximizing index to have a decent increase in advantage.

+1 3t