Four months of playing blackjack

[Cloudstreets7087]

I started off gambling a couple years ago with poker. I was fortunate enough to have a really good mentor and training before I ever hit s casino. I played and did pretty well, but it can be a real grind and I actually hate being in a casino. To this day walking into the play room of a casino is like walking into Mos Eisley spaceport in Star Wars. So, I started becoming disenchanted with poker and "retired" for awhile.

Like everyone at some point or another I saw the movie 21. I started reading about the realities of it and also the math. I got an awesome sim for my iPad called 21 sim. I read the wizardofodds website inside and out. I practiced and practiced. About 4 months ago I went to the casino for the first time to play blackjack. I had a very defined plan. I think that is important. One thing I love about blackjack is that it is all about math and statistics. Doesn't matter what the stakes are or what the drunk smelly guy next to you is doing, it's all the same. In poker the game changes dramatically depending on which table, day of the week, stakes, etc.

the first month and a half were all about basic strategy. No counting. Even though I knew how to count and was getting better, I didn't do it. I wanted basic strategy to be second nature without really thinking about it. I also had rules. I would leave the casino after one hour of play or I won 50% on my money or I lost 50% on my money, whichever came first. Surpisingly enough I only hit the loss trigger three times during this time. So, after 6 weekends of play, playing both Saturday and Sunday early in the morning, I was up $1625.00.

NOTE: Time of day doesn't matter with blackjack either. Poker definitely does. So I can go nice and early in the morning where it's much quieter and less crowded.

Then I started counting. I eased into it first with the ridiculous ace-five count. I knew the hi-lo really well but I just wanted to get used to keeping a number in my head while playing the game at a casino. I didn't put much credence into what the count was telling me, but I did it for a weekend. I won both days 50% on my money.

Then i went full bore, hi-lo count after that and have stuck with it ever since. This is what I learned and I don't think these things are really mentioned enough.

Its very important to not play emotionally. Believe the math. Always. Even if you lose and you see the next card that came out would have given you a winning hand, it doesn't matter. You made the right decision according to the math and that will pay off if done consistently.

A low count doesn't mean you are guaranteed to lose and high count doesn't guarantee that you will win. It's a statistical swing not a magic bullet. I've won plenty with a low count. And you can lose big when you get screwed on a high count. Again it's statistics not a magic bullet. However wins on a high count can be oh so satisfying.

You have to change the way you play when the count is high. This is so important if you really trust your count. If you play basic strategy during a high count you can and will lose big dollars. I don't see this mentioned enough quite frankly.

Use some sort of betting progression when the count isn't favorable. I min bet while I am winning and then double the bet for one hand after a losing hand. Then I go back to a min bet until I start winning and when I lose a hand I double it for one hand and back to min bet. Perfect basic strategy gives you a game that is almost 50/50 so doubling your bet following a loss hits a lot of the time. A progression also gets the dealer used to seeing you change your bet sometimes rather than seeing these monster bets getting fired out there after 2 shoes of min betting.

Have a plan other than " I'm gonna get rich" prior to entering the casino. I still use the rule as stated above except my buy in is higher now. I buy in for $1000 at a $25 table.

Lastly, I don't think the casino I go to, anyway, gives a crap about counting. For me at least. My buy ins are too low and the blackjack tables are filled with undisciplined counters losing big stacks trying to make millions. So their attitude is "so you can count, eh? Here have a seat and here's a drink on us."

anyway. That's my long winded two cents worth. After four months of play I am up $3800. I am pretty happy with that result.

[ZeeBabar]

Thanks for sharing. I play the $25 min tables and I almost always buy in for $200-$300. If I am short on doubling, I might cash in another $100. In a losing session, the dealer notifies the pit every single time I cash in. Sometimes 5-6 times in a single shoe. I figure they will remember me as a loser in just a couple of bad sessions. It's helped me. I read somewhere on this or Bj21 that cashing in small helps. Pit dismisses you as a ploppy right at the start. It might not matter where you play but in other more heat sensitive places it can.

[Cloudstreets7087]

I agree. One thing I forgot to mention is that I will cash out at 50% gain even if the count is favorable. I think this goes a long way toward not getting unwanted attention. If you think about it a 50% gain on your money in an hour or less is pretty darned good. Where else can one get that? It doesn't happen all the time but it happens enough to make it viable.

I have a pretty cool excel spread sheet for tracking my blackjack activities and soon I will be getting to the point where I will buy in for more but maintain the 50% rule. That's my plan for ramp up. Again the fun thing about blackjack is that the game doesn't change with the stakes.

One last thing and this is for new people like me. It's important to buy in with an amount big enough to absorb losses. You are going to lose hands no matter what and if your stack can't absorb losses then you screw yourself. It's all statistics. You have to throw enough data points at the equation to see the swings but not enough to let the house edge creep in. I see it so often where someone will sit down with 100 bucks at a $25 table and they are done 3 minutes later.

So either plop down a nice junk or do the multiple buy in thing.

[mushin]

I agree. One thing I forgot to mention is that I will cash out at 50% gain even if the count is favorable. I think this goes a long way toward not getting unwanted attention. If you think about it a 50% gain on your money in an hour or less is pretty darned good. Where else can one get that? It doesn't happen all the time but it happens enough to make it viable.

I have a pretty cool excel spread sheet for tracking my blackjack activities and soon I will be getting to the point where I will buy in for more but maintain the 50% rule. That's my plan for ramp up. Again the fun thing about blackjack is that the game doesn't change with the stakes.

One last thing and this is for new people like me. It's important to buy in with an amount big enough to absorb losses. You are going to lose hands no matter what and if your stack can't absorb losses then you screw yourself. It's all statistics. You have to throw enough data points at the equation to see the swings but not enough to let the house edge creep in. I see it so often where someone will sit down with 100 bucks at a $25 table and they are done 3 minutes later.

So either plop down a nice junk or do the multiple buy in thing.

Might I caution you against having a stop point associated with a dollar amount... particularly in high counts. This is not to say that you can't stop if you are comfortable and you have had sufficient opportunity to fire off your max bets but as a general rule it may not be the best for you in the long run. Rather than stopping when you are up 50% in the high counts you are far better off at least betting minimum than you are stopping. The who idea is to get as much money as you are comfortable with on the table during the times you have the best advantage.

By stopping in the high counts you are reducing the amount of time you are in the the strongest and the net result is that you will be playing more often in a lower or poor count. That is bad. As you said it is all math. Trust it. It seems that your 50% win/loss amount may be a be a bit rigid. As time goes you may look at trying to look at your wins an losses for a session in terms of standard deviation form the "expected" results and stay within that bell curve if you will... but (mostly) exit only when the deck cools.

[Sharky]

Might I caution you against having a stop point associated with a dollar amount... particularly in high counts...

agree wholeheartedly...i am not there to bet table min or even 1 unit, so i treasure the positive situations...pretty much to a fault...by that i mean i can be getting slammed (losing big bets)...hand after hand, shoe after shoe, but i keep thinking 'my luck has to change as the cards have no memory'...but usually it doesn't...at least i go down swinging

[mushin]

Yes... stopping early... lets say for example if the store sweats over wins of $1000 or more... it would be wise to "limit" the booked win amount... by using any and all tricks "in your pocket." As KJ says longevity is the ultimate advantage. After all what good is being able to recognize when you have an advantage if you can't put theory into practice.

I'm reading between the lines though on the original post and I dangerously assume that your not reaching a max bet that would draw too much attention. Longevity is probably not a worry yet.

[Three]

I agree. One thing I forgot to mention is that I will cash out at 50% gain even if the count is favorable. I think this goes a long way toward not getting unwanted attention.

This is a really bad idea. You stand backcounting or play through lots of bad counts waiting for the rare good betting opportunity. You never want to walk away from an advantage. BJ is about the long run and this idea gets in the way of that by obsessing on the short run. Just leave when the count tanks. If it doesn't it must at the shuffle. Your advantage is about the percentage of hands played with various advantages and the bets they are played under. By leaving great counts you shift the percentages toward the negative. If you look at the percentages you will be betting big they are really small. You can't afford to make them any smaller. When something is large and you forgo a few the impact is minimal but when something is small that same affect becomes huge. So with HILO and 100 rounds/hour you expect about 6 hands/hour at max bet. You wong out part way through the shoe because you got up enough and miss 3 of these you cut the number of max bets in half. Max bets will come in clumps in shoe games. You want to make every one of them. If you get 3 on average and have a lot of hours where you make none then those clumps you walk away from will have even more max bets than 3 on average. The affect on your EV is crippling.

It's important to buy in with an amount big enough to absorb losses. You are going to lose hands no matter what and if your stack can't absorb losses then you screw yourself.

You will probably conclude later that smaller buyins are better. The money is almost the same on the table or in your pocket. If you worry about the exchange bring chips to the table to pull out if needed after the smaller buyin. The most important ting about what you need when you sit at a table is enough to play out a hot shoe that is just killing you. The last thing you need is to run out of money and have to walk away from a monster count when the pen has reached a deep point which adds to the certainty that you will see the cards you are expecting. You need to bring a significant amount more than your worst beating had you down to during a shoe at any point in the shoe. So often you get most or all of your losses back before the end of the shoe.

[mushin]

Oh and I also want to agree with KJ... multiple buy ins are great! Always find the threshold where the floor would have to come over to verify the buy and stay below it for more than more reason which we can talk about later. But... mainly it keeps you in control of the amount of time you have the boss come over and it give you some opportunities when you color up to check with the pit on what they have as your total buy in and "correct" them if it should be more. If you can have them add $100 or $200 or so to that total because it was busy and got missed as you were chasing you can keep those wins booked lower. Combine that with a ferreting chips away... well you see where I'm going.

[Blitzkrieg]

I started off gambling a couple years ago with poker. I was fortunate enough to have a really good mentor and training before I ever hit s casino. I played and did pretty well, but it can be a real grind and I actually hate being in a casino. To this day walking into the play room of a casino is like walking into Mos Eisley spaceport in Star Wars. So, I started becoming disenchanted with poker and "retired" for awhile.

Like everyone at some point or another I saw the movie 21. I started reading about the realities of it and also the math. I got an awesome sim for my iPad called 21 sim. I read the wizardofodds website inside and out. I practiced and practiced. About 4 months ago I went to the casino for the first time to play blackjack. I had a very defined plan. I think that is important. One thing I love about blackjack is that it is all about math and statistics. Doesn't matter what the stakes are or what the drunk smelly guy next to you is doing, it's all the same. In poker the game changes dramatically depending on which table, day of the week, stakes, etc.

the first month and a half were all about basic strategy. No counting. Even though I knew how to count and was getting better, I didn't do it. I wanted basic strategy to be second nature without really thinking about it. I also had rules. I would leave the casino after one hour of play or I won 50% on my money or I lost 50% on my money, whichever came first. Surpisingly enough I only hit the loss trigger three times during this time. So, after 6 weekends of play, playing both Saturday and Sunday early in the morning, I was up $1625.00.

NOTE: Time of day doesn't matter with blackjack either. Poker definitely does. So I can go nice and early in the morning where it's much quieter and less crowded.

Then I started counting. I eased into it first with the ridiculous ace-five count. I knew the hi-lo really well but I just wanted to get used to keeping a number in my head while playing the game at a casino. I didn't put much credence into what the count was telling me, but I did it for a weekend. I won both days 50% on my money.

Then i went full bore, hi-lo count after that and have stuck with it ever since. This is what I learned and I don't think these things are really mentioned enough.

Its very important to not play emotionally. Believe the math. Always. Even if you lose and you see the next card that came out would have given you a winning hand, it doesn't matter. You made the right decision according to the math and that will pay off if done consistently.

A low count doesn't mean you are guaranteed to lose and high count doesn't guarantee that you will win. It's a statistical swing not a magic bullet. I've won plenty with a low count. And you can lose big when you get screwed on a high count. Again it's statistics not a magic bullet. However wins on a high count can be oh so satisfying.

You have to change the way you play when the count is high. This is so important if you really trust your count. If you play basic strategy during a high count you can and will lose big dollars. I don't see this mentioned enough quite frankly.

Use some sort of betting progression when the count isn't favorable. I min bet while I am winning and then double the bet for one hand after a losing hand. Then I go back to a min bet until I start winning and when I lose a hand I double it for one hand and back to min bet. Perfect basic strategy gives you a game that is almost 50/50 so doubling your bet following a loss hits a lot of the time. A progression also gets the dealer used to seeing you change your bet sometimes rather than seeing these monster bets getting fired out there after 2 shoes of min betting.

Have a plan other than " I'm gonna get rich" prior to entering the casino. I still use the rule as stated above except my buy in is higher now. I buy in for $1000 at a $25 table.

Lastly, I don't think the casino I go to, anyway, gives a crap about counting. For me at least. My buy ins are too low and the blackjack tables are filled with undisciplined counters losing big stacks trying to make millions. So their attitude is "so you can count, eh? Here have a seat and here's a drink on us."

anyway. That's my long winded two cents worth. After four months of play I am up $3800. I am pretty happy with that result.

I don't understand why your "retiring" from poker unless your losing more than your winning. I can understand your thought process in those regards if your a loser at poker. For someone who doesn't like being in the casino why are you even playing blackjack? I'm sure blackjack will become a grind for you just like playing poker. It seems like it's already become a grind for you with all of the practice you say your putting into learning the game. Again, why are you learning the game if you hate being in a casino?

The movie "21" didn't inspire me to learn how to count cards. Every time I watch it I just notice the mistakes in the movie and the things that I would not do. Basic strategy can be learned over a kitchen table or on those high speed electronic tracking devices you use. Anyone should be able to learn it in a few hours if they actually put in the effort to learn it in the first place. I don't understand why you would go into a casino to practice basic strategy and not apply the card counting aspect of your strategy if you say you knew how to count, but did not. To me that represents a wasted effort in order to improve your game. What a way to waste valuable time with your money riding on the line. I'm not going to candy coat a response for you and tell you what you want to hear and give you an at-a-boy pat on the back.

[Sharky]

...Basic strategy can be learned over a kitchen table or on those high speed electronic tracking devices you use. Anyone should be able to learn it in a few hours if they actually put in the effort to learn it in the first place...

agreed, and yet i continually see folks, appearing otherwise reasonably intelligent, standing on 12 vs 12 and 13...amazes me that they think their 'experience' is more relevant than what the math says...same for A7 vs 9, 10 & 11....of course, there are MANY, MANY more

DITTO for this stupid Fuc#@$#@$ing 'DOWN' hit card that some places are allowing on double downs...WTF?...are you f-in kidding me??? (not to mention the additional time it takes away, of course, the casino too stupid to figure this out...time is $$$)... so aggravating that you have to tell these stupid, moronic dealers that UP IS THE DEFAULT!!!!!......DEAL THEM UP UNLESS ASKED!!!

[Three]

I never saw the movie "21". I think I saw maybe 10 minutes in the middle somewhere and just thought it was a bad movie. The couple was running from some security. Maybe it was just the trailer. Nobody seemed to have much good to say about it so I never wasted my time. Should I watch it or did I make a good decision to pass on the movie?

[mushin]

agreed, and yet i continually see folks, appearing otherwise reasonably intelligent, standing on 12 vs 12 and 13...amazes me that they think their 'experience' is more relevant than what the math says...same for A7 vs 9, 10 & 11....of course, there are MANY, MANY more

DITTO for this stupid Fuc#@$#@$ing 'DOWN' hit card that some places are allowing on double downs...WTF?...are you f-in kidding me??? (not to mention the additional time it takes away, of course, the casino too stupid to figure this out...time is $$$)... so aggravating that you have to tell these stupid, moronic dealers that UP IS THE DEFAULT!!!!!......DEAL THEM UP UNLESS ASKED!!!

last night.... A7 vs 9 (My hand 3rd base) entire rest of table (A Group of friends: Not mine) flips out. Now mind you they have a few 20s... I have no clue what is coming of course... but I say "Wait for it....."

The dealer all night has been pulling the cards looking at it before hand and then putting them down.... he looks at them and says. The correct play is to hit... and flips the card onto my hand "3" for 21. Dealer flips his card... a "9" for 18.

Now mind you I always have a basic strategy card on me... Always.. just to "check" things when I'm "unsure." This night I hadn't used it and the dealer knew I was pat with BS so there was no point. I finish out the shoe color up my now $1000 + in chips. I reach into my pocket and pull on the Basic Strategy card and toss it across the table to them and say... "use this." They think i'm walking with a big win... unfortunately I'm into that table for about $800 but they don't know that.

Dealer grins like I made his night with that.... He knows I'm walking with only a small win and says... "You should listen to him." I toss him a left over red and thank him for a fun table. Pit boss hands me my comp I had asked for a bit earlier and says "Have a good evening Mr. "mushin."

Could have gone any which way but maybe I converted them.... to Basic Strategy players instead of BS players.

[Cloudstreets7087]

I was making money at poker just not nearly enough to justify the amount of time I had to spend there. So translated I guess that means I wasn't a good poker player.

Im reading a lot of good advice here and I really appreciate it. I am finding out now that my 50% rule has to change. When I first started, I would buy in for 500 at a $25 table. Making $250 in an hour or less was reasonably easy with just even just basic strategy. I would bet the minimum while winning and when I lost a hand I would bet 50 and if I lost another hand I would go back to 25. Then it would start over again with a winning hand. With a couple splits or double downs that you win, you would be up $250 with a reasonable frequency.

Now that I go to the casino with $1000, my 25/50 rule makes it a lot harder to get to 50%. A lot more hands need to be played. Enter the hi-lo count. That's what got me over the top.

I agree that I should not be walking away from good counts. I get it. Really. There are still parts of me that doesn't quite trust the math and I wanna bolt. I know what I need to do and you guys are right.

I just came from the casino. It's a beautiful day out and I really didn't feel like spending any time in there, but I see it as a part time job now and I figured I better put my time in. This was the first time I actually watched a table and counted before I sat down. Usually I don't catch a shoe right at the beginning and there were seats open. Lucky me. I only bought in for $500. I sat down with a +4 true count. played a couple hands two double downs and I was out of there +300. It was only 15 minutes of play. Not even enough time to smell like cigarette smoke. The count had cooled down as well. I was just thrilled to make over 50% in less than 15 minutes.