Not weird at all. Even money is bad at 3:2 (but close, obviously, since it's like the #1 index play), but if you can get even money on a 6:5 game it doesn't become bad until something like TC-5 or worse. (Not sure on the exact number, that's just my gut feeling.)Originally Posted by RollingStoned
To understand it, you need to think through what insurance is, and what even money is, and why it's different on 3:2 vs 6:5.
May the cards fall in your favor.
An old timer card counter once remarked that splitting tens all the time gets the money. I assume he meant that splitting tens when it's called for with max bet out overcomes the times you would split tens when it is not called for with min bet out. I never put it to the test, but it sounds plausible to me. Anyone know the EV on this one?
Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 - 8/23/10... “Life’s most urgent question is: what are you doing for others?” — Martin Luther King, Jr.
Interesting. I don't know the answer to your question. But, I'd suspect it has largely to do with how big your spread is, and what your bet is when you're at a TC +4 or +5. If you're spreading 1-6 (1 unit per TC), then it very well may not be +EV [overall]. But if you have a monster spread like 1-100 and you're max betting at TC +4.....then yeah, I can definitely see how always splitting against 4/5/6 would be +EV [overall]. If that is indeed true, then it makes sense. You could increase your spread because you look like a retard when splitting...and you'd be making lots in EV when you have those big bets out. Also, it allows for someone to make those splits at a +4 or higher count....since many won't ever split tens because it's a dead give-away. [Sort of like the "always stand on 16vT" thing. If you switch it up based on count, then it's easy for surveillance to know you're a skilled player. If you always stand, you're giving up little EV in negative counts (with small bets out) and doing the proper play in +counts (with big bets out.]
I believe it is the same concept with doubling A8 vs 6 in an H17 game...although the difference is based on the player's spread (since I'm talking about BS). BS says to always double A8v6, even though if you're counting you'd only do it at +1 or higher. I suspect the reason is because the higher the count is, the EV for doubling grows very fast, while when the count is lower/negative, the EV for doubling decreases slowly.
Hopefully Norm or someone can share on this subject -- interesting indeed.
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
Don't know a single place that allows even money on BJ if 6-5. Do you know one? That would reduce the HA by a small bit but I have never seen one allow it.
And many are mentioning extreme index plays at extreme negative counts. Why would you still be playing and betting at that time? So wouldn't you just ignore those anyway? I know this is a thread for discussion of all topics but isn't this just theoretical v. practical? If I have a negative 22 shoe, I would not be playing it.
Last edited by MJGolf; 04-09-2015 at 11:13 AM.
"Women and cats will do as they please, and Men and dogs should just relax and get used to the idea" --- Robert A. Heinlein
You guys are talking about extreme plays and I just made the right play and got burnt. I just returned from a disaster while playing a DD game, min. $25, double 9-11. TC at +4, received a pair of 2's against a 6 card on one hand and an Ace, 7 on the other hand. Had my max bet out at $150. Split the 2's, received a 9 on the first and doubled (received a 6 for a 17 total), received another 2, split again and hit, received a 10 (12 total) the other card got a 7, doubled and got a 10 (10) and then I came to my second hand, an Ace,7 and I made a mistake, doubled and got a 10 (18). I had doubled 3 hands (for a total of $900) and had another for $150. The dealer turned up a 10 and then hit for a 4 and I lost all my hands. If I had not greedy and doubled the Ace 7, I would have won all my hands!!!!
All you need is a dealer to allow it. The way they hop dealers from game to game during their shift it is easy for them to get confused. I don't play 6:5 but I have seen dealers allow all kinds of things they shouldn't. I remember a match the dealer bet in a place that offered many different side bets at different tables. The dealer was getting ready to pay too much to a ploppy because she was confused about which game she was dealing and the player had a perfect match and a regular match. The Floor said no you got it wrong and ten to my surprise the Floor had her pay a whole lot more than the original error. I think the guy got paid for an "in between" side bet. He got like double or triple what he should have. The dealer was giving him an extra 20-30%. I have seen people get away with surrendering 3+ card hands. I have seen people get away with surrendering before the dealer checks for BJ in a late surrender game. I have seen a lot of other things as well.
You are thinking like an ace reckoned counter. If you gather information in a way that you have a very high PE count with a high BC by adding other information to bet more accurately you may not only find that you are still around at a very negative playing count but that you are also betting decent bets because you have a nice advantage when you made your bet. Lets say you are playing a deeply dealt DD game. They are dealing until half a deck left and you are using HIOPT II. There are 27 cards left when you make your bets on your two hands and the RC is -4 and you have only seen 2 aces. That makes the playing TC -8 when you make your bet but the betting TC is +8 so you have 2 max bets out. The guy at first base gets T,T and the hand you must play first is A,A and the other is 9,9 and the dealer is showing a 9. The RC is now -8 and there are about 2 surplus aces. You end up splitting aces to 4 hands and get a face card on each ace. It must be your lucky day. The RC drops to -16 and you are considering your 9,9v9. The index is -23 and there is one extra ace, 2 aces left in the 14 cards remaining. The TC is -64 so you don't split. You made your bet when the betting TC was +8 (playing TC -8) indicating max bets were called for. I used 9,9v9 because that is the lowest index I have for HIOPT II. I ignore indices of magnitude more than 25. When it came time to make your decision the playing TC went from -8 when you made your bets to -64 when you made your decision. You used this most negative index play when you had your max bet out and the dealer hit 3 cards to a hard 17.
I didn't use 6,6v6 as was suggested by another count as an extreme index because HIOPT II is strongly correlated to the split with the only +2 tag cards being 4 and 5. The index is only -8 and HIOPT II is a level 2 count so it is like a HILO index of -4. Likewise the other extreme index given for A,Av6 but the index is too high for me to have a value.
How is that greedy? You played them all correctly as far as I could see. Why wouldn't you double A7 against dealer's six at +4? This is variance, not playing wrong or greedy, unless I'm missing something.
"Women and cats will do as they please, and Men and dogs should just relax and get used to the idea" --- Robert A. Heinlein
You play all you hands individually and correctly it doesn't mean you are going to win it just means in the long run you will. You played all your hands right. You should never worry about how the cards fell just if you made any mistakes. You didn't make any. Not doubling soft 18v6. That is a fat double. You got the second best card you could. The correct play is not what wins that round but what wins in the long run. If you didn't double you should have been upset that you made a mistake.
Yep and I learned that the hard way. I was playing single deck at the time and the count was within the realm of Hades. I made a "big deal" about my "hunch" that my 17 wasn't good enough but I busted. Dealer then called it out and all eyes, casino personnel and poppies alike, were on me.
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