Desk Estimation Resolution

[NotEnoughHeat]

I was going to post this in the deck estimation help thread but I thought this is probably a distinct topic worth a thread in it's own.

How precise are you guys when it comes to your deck estimation? I realize that for SD and DD players you'll require a much finer resolution than shoe players but I'm curious as to how fine grain you guys bother going.

I play a 6D shoe and I've been mostly using full deck and half deck when the decision is close, however I've been thinking about trying to do quarter decks because of some of the close calls I would have played differently near the end of the shoe (especially when I get some of those dealers that give 92% pen).

[mushin]

Using The Color of Black Jack (an off shoot of KO) deck estimation really only needs to be at 1 deck resolution but I shoot for 1/2 deck. The main reason is that in the warm I just use a progressive betting "strategy" as a form of cover 1 unit, 2 units, 3 units, repeat. If the deck gets hot I just start to double up. It works rather well. 4 units, 6 units.

[Freightman]

Using The Color of Black Jack (an off shoot of KO) deck estimation really only needs to be at 1 deck resolution but I shoot for 1/2 deck. The main reason is that in the warm I just use a progressive betting "strategy" as a form of cover 1 unit, 2 units, 3 units, repeat. If the deck gets hot I just start to double up. It works rather well. 4 units, 6 units.

As a matter of curiosity, what does this approach yield in average units per hour.

[mushin]

As a matter of curiosity, what does this approach yield in average units per hour.

Not sure really. Another thing I do is sometimes I just randomly bet amounts in the warm. I even mix it up from shoe to shoe. One shoe I use the progressive bets (When in the warm). The next I might bet random amounts from say 1 unit to 6 units (In the warm). When the deck gets hot I hit my max bet and hold there till the deck cools.

[Freightman]

I was going to post this in the deck estimation help thread but I thought this is probably a distinct topic worth a thread in it's own.

How precise are you guys when it comes to your deck estimation? I realize that for SD and DD players you'll require a much finer resolution than shoe players but I'm curious as to how fine grain you guys bother going.

I play a 6D shoe and I've been mostly using full deck and half deck when the decision is close, however I've been thinking about trying to do quarter decks because of some of the close calls I would have played differently near the end of the shoe (especially when I get some of those dealers that give 92% pen).

Interesting question. Two points that I see. The first is do you have or not have an advantage. The second is are you playing away from home slash and burn or are you playing close to home.

Slash and burn with optimal betting, and depending on bankroll, insulting spreads, would require a closer deck estimation than the local guy maneuvering within the true count bucket, trying to blend in with the locals. Both yield a profit. I tend to play the latter - you can get some pretty good spreads and units per hour with at approach also. Also looks a lot less robotic. Either way, try to average your average bets keeping in mind that the difference between a 1% advantage and a 2% advantage is not 1%, rather it is 100%, and your ramps, on average, should reflect that.

[NotEnoughHeat]

Interesting question. Two points that I see. The first is do you have or not have an advantage. The second is are you playing away from home slash and burn or are you playing close to home.

Slash and burn with optimal betting, and depending on bankroll, insulting spreads, would require a closer deck estimation than the local guy maneuvering within the true count bucket, trying to blend in with the locals. Both yield a profit. I tend to play the latter - you can get some pretty good spreads and units per hour with at approach also. Also looks a lot less robotic. Either way, try to average your average bets keeping in mind that the difference between a 1% advantage and a 2% advantage is not 1%, rather it is 100%, and your ramps, on average, should reflect that.

I think another interesting aspect to bring up is that deck estimation might have more importance to playing strategy than betting (and thus more to SD and DD). If we take decisions we would have done differently if we were to use more precise deck estimation, it might be useful to think of it as a type of error for the sake of using the information on this page: https://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjackerrors2.htm
As the chart shows, mistakes in betting strategy don't have a very large effect on SCORE.

Another thing that I should probably remind myself is that if a slightly finer grain estimation would have led me to a different decision then the decision was already pretty close to begin with. However, there's nothing wrong with striving to get every little edge you can, as long as it's worth the effort.

[bigplayer]

In actual play at the start of a shoe it doesn't matter, I divide by 6 for a few rounds then by 5 then by 4 then by 3. Then I multiply by 0.4 about 1/2 way between 3 and 2 decks remaining, then divide by 2, then multiply by 0.7 midway between 1 and 2 decks left, then past the 1 deck point I multiply by 1.5, then by 2, then by 3, then by 4 (I should be so lucky). Early in the shoe it really doesn't matter whether you divide by 5 or 6 or by 7 or 8, you're seldom gonna be betting more than the minimum either way.

[Freightman]

I think another interesting aspect to bring up is that deck estimation might have more importance to playing strategy than betting (and thus more to SD and DD). If we take decisions we would have done differently if we were to use more precise deck estimation, it might be useful to think of it as a type of error for the sake of using the information on this page: https://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjackerrors2.htm
As the chart shows, mistakes in betting strategy don't have a very large effect on SCORE.


Another thing that I should probably remind myself is that if a slightly finer grain estimation would have led me to a different decision then the decision was already pretty close to begin with. However, there's nothing wrong with striving to get every little edge you can, as long as it's worth the effort.

Shoe games depend heavily on betting correlation. If you can tweak your count system to increase your playing efficiency, you are a bigger winner. SD and DD games are more sensitive to playing efficiency. This is essentially why some count systems are better suited to shoes (ace reckoned counts) and others better suited to pitch games (ace dude count systems for example)

[Three]

For playing if the play is so close you are trying to decipher fine deck estimates there isn't much there anyway in the way of EV. Just use BS. It shouldn't happen enough to make much difference. For betting I just try to do what is more similar to my previous bet or follow the previous outcome. Like if I don't want to show much bet variation as a concern I make the bet closer to what my last bet was. If I only raise my bet after a win and lower after a loss (I usually don't do this but in some stores...) I raise if I won the last bet.

I don't worry about fine deck estimation until about 2.5 decks left. Then I use full deck estimates to 1/2 deck accuracy. If I am getting really good pen like to 0.5 decks left I might try 1/4 deck accuracy but I am not confident that it would be accurate to 1/4 deck so I am not sure if it helps or hurts. Don't try to use more accuracy than you can do accurately. The deepest I saw a shoe dealt was 8 decks dealt to 7 cards left. That was not something that was consistent. Just happened once from a dealer giving great pen.