Losing streak thread - PART FOUR (Sort of)

[Three]

Exactly. Whenever a large plus-count occurs, it always seems to result in unsuccessful splits and doubles for me, causing the loss to be all the more devastating.
Just give me one good run of plus-count where the dealer actually busts a couple of times. It feels like this is never going to happen again.

You must stop thinking in the short term. All the math is based on the long run. Anything can and will happen in the short term. I would be concerned I was making mistakes if I was running like you are. What count do you use and with how many indices? Do you know all the positive indices that affect your large bets? What are the rules and pen? If ENHC are you using proper ENHC strategy considering what happens to your doubles and splits when the dealer gets a BJ? There is different strategy deviations for ENHC depending on how it is done in the casino. If you are splitting and doubling when you shouldn't that will really hurt your EV and may erase your advantage altogether.

[DSchles]

"One of the reasons we have to bet so much in plus counts to overcome the house edge is that plus counts are not always successful. First, the dealer will always win more hands on average than we do whether in a negative count or a plus count."

Well, that's not quite true. Depends on the positive count. I think that, in SD, past +3, the player wins more hands than the dealer. For shoe games, +5. Don't confuse this idea with the fact that we never actually win 50% of the hands, but that's because of pushes. When you exclude pushes and consider only hands for which there is a decision, it doesn't take a ridiculously high TC for the player to win more hands than the dealer.

Don

[ohbehave]

Read, read, read and search, search, search for ways to get more than 1% advantage and then practice, practice, practice until your fingers bleed and your brain shuts down on you.

Does it count if your eyes start bleeding first??

[Bodarc]

That is utopia!

[Aslan]

"One of the reasons we have to bet so much in plus counts to overcome the house edge is that plus counts are not always successful. First, the dealer will always win more hands on average than we do whether in a negative count or a plus count."

Well, that's not quite true. Depends on the positive count. I think that, in SD, past +3, the player wins more hands than the dealer. For shoe games, +5. Don't confuse this idea with the fact that we never actually win 50% of the hands, but that's because of pushes. When you exclude pushes and consider only hands for which there is a decision, it doesn't take a ridiculously high TC for the player to win more hands than the dealer.

Don

Thanks for that. I never knew it and, in fact, was instructed the opposite right here (on former Blackjackinfo.com, its predecessor IMO) without it being contested. I have learned something new. BTW, how high does the difference rise when the TC goes to +5 and above in shoe games? I'm guessing not a whole lot, leaving plenty of chance for losing multiple hands even there, but I'd like to hear it from a trusted and proven authority as yourself. Thanks in advance.

[Aslan]

Does it count if your eyes start bleeding first??

As long as you can still keep the count and employ your other card skills with blood-filled eyes.

[DSchles]

"BTW, how high does the difference rise when the TC goes to +5 and above in shoe games? I'm guessing not a whole lot, leaving plenty of chance for losing multiple hands even there, but I'd like to hear it from a trusted and proven authority as yourself. Thanks in advance."

It switches to > 50% at +5 (S17, DAS, NS), and it never gets much higher than 54% or so. Go here:
http://www.blackjacktheforum.com/res...p?do=statspage and play with the charts.

Don

[Aslan]

"BTW, how high does the difference rise when the TC goes to +5 and above in shoe games? I'm guessing not a whole lot, leaving plenty of chance for losing multiple hands even there, but I'd like to hear it from a trusted and proven authority as yourself. Thanks in advance."

It switches to > 50% at +5 (S17, DAS, NS), and it never gets much higher than 54% or so. Go here:
http://www.blackjacktheforum.com/res...p?do=statspage and play with the charts.

Don

Thanks for the link.

What I noticed is that the difference between red/seven on a true count basis and High Opt I with a side count is like night and day with the latter winning more hands (disregarding ties) at +5 while the former does not until +19 (S17, 83% pen). I wonder why this is, since both are on a true count basis? I also found it helpful to know that the gap between wins and losses is not that pronounced throughout a plus count, as the average win/loss ratio might suggest, but I had always assumed that to be the case but to a lesser degree.

[Three]

Look at units bet instead of TC. HIOPT I only counts 4 ranks (high and how each). red seven counts 5.5 ranks ranks low and 5 ranks high. Red seven is probably in RC not the TC'ed version. HIOPT I is balanced and red seven is unbalanced. Just look at the range of the counts comparing red 7 to Hilo.

[Oneoffthecount]

Waiting for my divorce to become final and the unfreezing of my assets. I've wanted to play FT for a long time.. However, some moments playing sim give me pause. I'm at arund 29k hands and wanted to simulate a whole year playing. After a nice start at 21k hands I was up 30k. I knew a downswing would be inevitable and in my budget I reserved everythihng over at $$5600 annual with so I had about 9k in reserves as well as my starting hypothetical ban, I was feeling pretty good then the next 7k hands happened-

	#Bets	Won%	Lost%	Tied%	$Bet	$Won/Lost	Win Rate
$25	3267	42.52%	49.43%	8.05%	$81,675	($1,525)	-1.87%
$30	1	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%	$30	($30)	-100.00%
$50	1760	41.42%	49.94%	8.64%	$88,000	($2,950)	-3.35%
$75	2	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%	$150	($225)	-150.00%
$100	1005	41.00%	50.35%	8.66%	$100,500	($5,000)	-4.98%
$150	1	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	$150	$150	100.00%
$200	357	39.50%	50.98%	9.52%	$71,400	($5,400)	-7.56%
$300	215	43.72%	47.44%	8.84%	$64,500	$750	1.16%
$400	119	36.97%	47.06%	15.97%	$47,600	($3,800)	-7.98%
$500	165	40.61%	48.48%	10.91%	$82,500	($3,250)	-3.94%
>$500	0				$0	$0
Totals	6892	41.74%	49.67%	8.59%	$536,505	($21,280)	-3.97%

I've looked for leaks, built a model to experiment to see if I bet correct. I had tried some camo techniques that did cost me about $4k had I not tried them, however 21k loss of 7k hands give me the whilllies. If this was a real month, I wouldn't be too happy.

[Aslan]

Look at units bet instead of TC. HIOPT I only counts 4 ranks (high and how each). red seven counts 5.5 ranks ranks low and 5 ranks high. Red seven is probably in RC not the TC'ed version. HIOPT I is balanced and red seven is unbalanced. Just look at the range of the counts comparing red 7 to Hilo.

Yes, it may be that red/seven assumes running count even though one selects true count next to the "table" parameter. It may mean that this is how many units you can expect to win and lose when red seven running count is converted to true count for display purposes, NOT when red seven is actually converted to true count in play. I know the red seven curve is highly distorted in plus counts, a +19 being much higher than if converted to true count, but certainly not by 14 (19-5). In any event, if you look at how close the numbers are even in plus counts, you know why you can lose every hand sometimes. A one or two percent difference still means you can lose several hands in a row on frequent occasions, but it's not so bad as when the one or two percent go in the opposite direction. I'm glad that Don pointed this out, as it is a small encouragement when weathering the storms of plus-count losses. Still, the preponderance of one's advantage falls on successful splits, double downs, and naturals aided a bit by the fact of winning slightly more hands in a plus count. I wish the change occurred earlier, say at zero percent, because I do not find myself in the 5% and above range much in shoe games, but mostly in pitch games.

[Aslan]

"BTW, how high does the difference rise when the TC goes to +5 and above in shoe games? I'm guessing not a whole lot, leaving plenty of chance for losing multiple hands even there, but I'd like to hear it from a trusted and proven authority as yourself. Thanks in advance."

It switches to > 50% at +5 (S17, DAS, NS), and it never gets much higher than 54% or so. Go here:
http://www.blackjacktheforum.com/res...p?do=statspage and play with the charts.

Don

And at DD it's +4 which is very helpful for me to know, since I play a lot of DD. For those who play the KO count, +4 RC coincides with +4 True Count, so that there is a slight advantage to the card counter even without successful splits, double downs, and naturals at this point. Not a lot, but an advantage nevertheless, if I am interpreting the table correctly.