Losing streak thread - PART FOUR (Sort of)

**mickeymouse** · 03-23-2015, 12:46 AM

After my latest disastrous loss, I read some of the latest literature on losing. Then... I trudged back and played another session.

I didn't do too badly. I actually had some positive variance on my min bets. And I was rarely the only one losing. I didn't bust on all my stiff hands. Although the count never went spectacularly high, I had built up nearly a $400 profit when I was about to leave after playing one final shoe.

And then it was inevitable. The count went to +5 and +6 and I was forced to do a Hail Mary. Five minutes before I was going to leave.

I got dealt two 16's in a row and busted both.

Then I got dealt two 11's and doubled to 20 on both. The dealer had a 4 up. She went .... ace six.

To be fair, the next two hands I got a blackjack and a 21 respectively. At which time the count was no longer good. (Penetration is 90%! where I play.) I left with a profit of $182.50 which was more than the EV I got in my session.

But at the end of the day a great proportion of our EV is generated at the very high counts when we are max betting. I just cannot win the hands that count. I have had a bad run precisely because every time I run into what is supposed to be a favourable succession of hands, I lose most of them.

Alas! Woe!

**Jabberwocky** · 03-23-2015, 12:55 AM

Could you actually be the blackjack version of Li'l Abner's Joe Btfsplk? Say it ain't so!

**mickeymouse** · 03-23-2015, 02:51 AM

Yes, I am just born to lose.

**max85** · 03-23-2015, 02:52 AM

how many hours have you played total? what is your ev per hour? what is your max bet?

**mickeymouse** · 03-23-2015, 03:12 AM

Total hours played: ~ 125
EV per hour: 30-60 (depending on conditions/dealer)
Max bet: $200 (min bet $10)

**Aslan** · 03-23-2015, 05:44 AM

Originally Posted by mickeymouse

Yes, I am just born to lose.

If you actually believe that, you are probably correct.

**ohbehave** · 03-23-2015, 05:56 AM

You really should stop obsessing over each and every session. Do you have Casino Verite? If so, haven't you practiced thousands of hands and seen the same thing happen in practice. Get demolished on many sessions, but still making money over time. If you haven't put in the practice like this then you should stop playing live and do the practice work until you are ready in your head for what to expect.

**DSchles** · 03-23-2015, 08:28 AM

I ask again: Have you read chapter 12 of BJA3?

Don

**Shadowless** · 03-23-2015, 11:43 AM

Originally Posted by DSchles

I ask again: Have you read chapter 12 of BJA3?

Don

I purchased BJA3 a couple weeks ago and read that chapter recently.

Basically a losing year is possible even with backcounting, but results will come back to around EV in the long run, and that individual team players shouldn't be compensated for individual performance because it's unfair and anything can happen in the short run.

My only criticism is that since the player is wonging in at TC>=1, he is only placing a bet about 25% of the time (26.63% exact), so 376 hands per hour would have to be dealt in order for the backcounter to achieve 100 theoretical bets placed per hour, making it literally impossible for the backcounter to bet 100HPH, let alone 10k hands per quarter (a round needs to be settled in ~9.6 seconds on average, not including shuffle time).

If it was a heads up game he was backcounting, with 75% penetration 234 cards will be dealt. Approximately 42 hands will be dealt to the heads up player per shoe assuming 2.8 cards per round on average -- 9 (8.95) shoes per hour needed to meet 376 hands per hour. Assuming no ASM and 2-3 minutes to shuffle, 18-27 minutes will be taken out of each hour for shuffling, leaving 33-42 minutes of play time to achieve 376 hands per hour, making the requirement for a settled round between 5.27 and 6.7 seconds. However, these calculations don't include the rounds that the backcounter will be playing. If the backcounter bets about 25% of the time, he is playing about 10 rounds per shoe with the assumed above conditions.

That aside, the moral of the simulation is more important, which I had already noted.

**Bodarc** · 03-23-2015, 01:42 PM

The hands you are back counting are being bet at zero so in effect you are getting your 100 hands per hour. Think of betting 1 cent on all the minus counts.

**DSchles** · 03-23-2015, 03:32 PM

You misunderstand the concept of reporting win rates and results for back-counting. They are based on SEEING 100 hands per hour, not PLAYING them!

Don

**max85** · 03-24-2015, 01:52 AM

Originally Posted by mickeymouse

Total hours played: ~ 125
EV per hour: 30-60 (depending on conditions/dealer)
Max bet: $200 (min bet $10)

This is crazy.....please listen to the experts like Don who are attempting to explain the variance involved in this game. To expect any accurate results in such a short period of time is absurd.

I would suggest learning about the game some more then forming a more educated opinion on your results.

**SiMi** · 03-24-2015, 08:40 AM

Hey, mickey!

Chapter 12 of BJA3 is a GREAT read. It really makes a much more general point, as you say, than the title of the chapter implies. It's NOT just about team play and it's not really about the benefits of back counting or the HO2 count. To me, the moral of Chapter 12 is that the Long Run is a VERY long time to a human. On the way to the Long Run, we humans will see things we identify as "streaks" that are just noise to the Long Run. A -3SD event can happen MANY MANY TIMES during a trip to the Long Run. It feels like HELL to us humans but it's a minor blip to the Long Run.

[spoiler alert] In the chapter, Don suggests maybe someone is cheating or slacking off or something else. But, actually, it's just the nature of randomness to blame. [end spoiler]

So, the reality of hitting a losing "streak" may be hard for us humans to accept but it is not a reflection of your worth. As long as you are playing properly, it's just noise. If you enjoy card counting, you'll want to use it as an opportunity to re-group and make sure your skills are top notch, etc. If you don't enjoy card counting, it's a chance to get out while you're still ahead a little.

We all have to make choices how to spend our limited time. I actually enjoy gambling a lot. I always have and I don't really know exactly why. I think it's fun and I don't need the +EV to live on. It's just a challenge to me and I love a challenge. I rock climb and fly airplanes for the same reasons I gamble. I like the challenge. If it weren't risky, there'd be no meaningful challenge to me. I'm just screwed up that way, I guess.

My BR is truly disposable to me and that takes much of the pressure off when I'm on a "bad streak" like now. But, if it gets to you and you do NOT enjoy the overall experience, it's probably a good idea to look around for more fulfilling ways to spend your time.

Life is short, man! The Long Run is VERY long...

Best of luck to ya!!
SiMi