Losing streak rant Part 2

[Orangechip2]

Without the variance, if everyone was just winning something along the line of expectation every session, every day, every week, then everyone and their mother would be a card counter and the result is the casino would not be able to offer any beatable games.

Wise words from a decent man. When I have a downswing in BR and I'm getting creamed every high TC I see, it's a ***** to stay level headed and play through.

mickey look at it like this: when you lose they are not taking your money, they are holding it for you for another day. When you win, don't go making deposits, because chances are in the near future you will need that $ while at a table that has a positive TC and you will kick yourself in the ass when the TC calls for a big bet and you are under funded because of a prior deposit. That was my main issue. Every single session win it was mandatory to put a little something in the bank. Then I'd find myself in a +EV situation and wouldn't have the funds on me, and an ATM withdraw is a big no no for this guy.

[hitthat16]

I lost $2,400 in 3 hours not too long ago, and that was after being up about $800. So in that 3 hour span I lost over 3 grand.

The very next day I kicked ass and took names at every place I went to. I ended that trip ahead a healthy amount.

My point is yes it sucks to lose big quickly, but if you have the bankroll you just have to keep going. When the dust settles there will be times where they bend over and take it, and you win a large amount in short order. That's variance!

Also, learn to embrace losing. Depending on the casino it may just buy you more time there.

[mickeymouse]

Many thanks for your wise advise everyone. In my latest loss I left after a pretty short session. I was lucky I had an appointment that I had to get to.

Played again last night. There is only one casino in my town and it is pretty small. Unfortunately it does tend to get crowded and there are only a very limited number of tables. I picked the least crowded table to get more hands in. This time I finally received some positive variance, despite losing the first shoe of the session for the 14th successive time. It was nice to actually win some hands on my max bet, although my max bet is now somewhat smaller on account of my dwindling bankroll.

At one point, I was $1000 in front. Unfortunately, I lost $500 on the last five hands, busting to stiff hands as usual. But I finished the evening $425 in front. It wasn't much, but it was better than perpetually losing.

[Three]

I lost $2,400 in 3 hours not too long ago, and that was after being up about $800. So in that 3 hour span I lost over 3 grand.

MY worst was losing over $3K in the first 20 minutes of a 3 day trip. I made money that trip but I had to take a break after that shoe. I had a couple max bets split to 4 hands with doubles on most of them and got decent hands against the dealer 5 and a dealer 6. Both times the dealer hit out to 21. Just those 2 rounds accounted for a $3K loss.

[Freightman]

MY worst was losing over $3K in the first 20 minutes of a 3 day trip. I made money that trip but I had to take a break after that shoe. I had a couple max bets split to 4 hands with doubles on most of them and got decent hands against the dealer 5 and a dealer 6. Both times the dealer hit out to 21. Just those 2 rounds accounted for a $3K loss.

How about 2x350 with hard 20's 2 or 3 hands apart - both losing to dealer multi card 21's - ouch. When the card gods turn - they turn.

[Blitzkrieg]

HI, ZKG

I know that CC is not a scam because I wrote my own MC and stats simulators. I KNOW EVERY LINE OF CODE in the programs and they show +EV for card counting. I wrote the programs because I can, it's fun and I can't stand to just trust someone else on something like this.

For those who care, learning to program enough to build a simple BJ simulator would be an excellent intro to some computer programming language. There are many free resources on the web to help.

SiMi

How long do you think it would take you to create a Spanish 21 strategy trainer that only cycles through every difficult random basic strategy playing decisions such as all playing decisions that are superscripted, including superscripted playing departure hands, all the soft total superscript playing departure hands and double downs, as well as testing the player on split hands where a player has to use the double option or use the surrender option when needed and surrender hands, cannot forget plenty of stiff hands to and playing departures on hands that seem to be doubling hands? A program that disregards EVERY easy playing decision such as pat hands in a Spanish 21 game. A game that would let the user choose between H17 and S17; 2, 6, and 8 decks and allow them to tweak other rules to the game to what is commonly found in today's casinos and allow the player to use the keys on the keyboard while playing the game such as S,D,R,H, and P which would correlate to standing, doubling, surrender, hit, and split respectively, and a second option would be the mouse.

I think that would be a much easier way of tackling and perfecting the basic strategy for Spanish 21 to where the basic strategy could be memorized in several days or even several hours.

Would that be easy to create Simi? How much would you charge if you could create such a strategy trainer on a CD?

[What me worry]

You have described one of the worst possible nightmares-- the plus count that just keeps climbing. The fact that it just keeps climbing means that more small cards are coming out than large cards and aces, meaning that dealers are more frequently making their hands, while players are more frequently missing their 8, 9, 10, and 11 double downs, their blackjacks, and their successful splits, all with max bet out! Also, you are more likely to get two small or neutral cards or a small card and a large card to start, just as when the count is negative. Yikes! Did you hear a slight hissing sound while all this was going on?

Arnold Snyder wrote about this. He had 2 explanations he wrote about a casino in the Bahamas that was cheating they pulled some of the face cards out of the deck not saying this is the case here. The other instance is card clumping it does happen. He wrote a chapter based on a letter he received on Opposition betting my style of play is very close to opposition betting.

[SiMi]

Hi, Blitz!

I've coded a strategy trainer similar to the one you envision for BS (and my own proprietary strategy) for the games I encounter in my area. Here's a screen shot from the trainer:

BSTrainer.jpg

Among other things, it keeps a log of any hands you miss and allows you to only play your "weak" hands.

I suppose it took about 3 months to code from scratch in my spare time. It wouldn't take that long to modify it for S21 if I were motivated and knew the correct strategy. I use a matrix to select the correct strategy based on the player's hand and the Dealer's up card so I would need to add a new S21 matrix. Also, my trainer gives you a terse and a verbose explanation for the logic behind the correct play and those explanations come from other matrices, so that would have to be added.

My trainer, unlike the ones I've seen elsewhere, lets you continue to play your hand until you bust. Most trainers I saw only let you play the first decision. This is partly why I wrote it because some hands (e.g., the soft hands) require more thought after the first decision. I also wrote it because I use a strategy I've developed and that is simply not available anywhere else.

But, I'm not motivated at the moment because I don't have a S21 game available to me and I'm plenty busy with other projects. If I get around to it, I'll let you know. I remember seeing a book on S21 by an Australian female author, I think. So, I would get that book first and read about it and find some S21 games to play before I started.

Take care,
SiMi

[Aslan]

Arnold Snyder wrote about this. He had 2 explanations he wrote about a casino in the Bahamas that was cheating they pulled some of the face cards out of the deck not saying this is the case here. The other instance is card clumping it does happen. He wrote a chapter based on a letter he received on Opposition betting my style of play is very close to opposition betting.

My style of play also has a warm spot for oppositional betting, which works best with very good penetration and sufficiently early plus counts for obvious reasons.

[Blitzkrieg]

Thanks Simi. I'll take your advice but I had to ask because I see that as a way of getting better much, much faster at the memorization of basic strategy for that variation of BJ. This is a good example of how using computers or a specially written computer program can help out the player greatly. Then afterwards cards would come into play.

[Aslan]

Doesn't everything works better with good penetration and sufficient early plus counts? I mean, whatever style and betting methods you are playing are likely to work better with better conditions.

I personally am not a fan of opposition betting. It will increase your N0 and variance a significant amount, while any benefit of betting type cover such as this, will be minimal, especially for locations that use software as part of the evaluation process and that is more and more locations all the time. Software evaluation will still show more money being wagered at positive counts, despite the attempt at covering it up.

There is one "cover type wagering" that I do employ, which I can't mention because I still use it to good success. It's a pretty common type play, but I just don't want to mention it. It does have a cost, but is effective enough that I find it worthwhile, especially on DD games that I play.

It only stands to reason that a hit and run style would not find oppositional betting to be advantageous. It has two uses, longevity in concert with other techniques, and large wagers in a casino where one is a well known whale.

A ploppy nay be encouraged to bet higher in plus counts if for no other reason than he is experiencing a run of successful bets, a streak. Streaks encourage ploppies to bet higher, whether they occur in plus or minus counts. So, in the final analysis, it can be considered a lucky happenstance that a ploppy increases his bet in a plus count. The tell is if he never increases his bet in a neutral or negative count.

Another thing a ploppy might do in a streak or in anticipating a streak is to "let it ride," that is, to parlay his bets. Old-timer APs I have met use no other method to increase their bets in plus counts. To simply jump from one to many units is too much a tell for their comfort. But, I notice that such subtleties are often lost on nouveau card counters. I suppose, the key is whatever works for you (not you, KJ, but anyone)!