Losing streak rant Part 2

**mickeymouse** · 03-19-2015, 02:33 PM

So after my last post when I had lost nearly half of my earnings for the year, I decided to continue playing. On Tuesday this week I toiled for about three hours and managed to eke out $330, after I was more than that behind after the first shoe. It didn't help losing the first shoe in the last eleven sessions that I played.

I went back again last night, and lost another $980. There was nothing I did differently than before. I wasn't on tilt. I just played the cards as they were dealt to me. A few observations:

(1) On the table I was generally the ONLY one losing. There were countless hands when I got dealt a stiff and busted where everyone else got either a pat hand or drew to one. Then the dealer busted. Everyone else was so happy that their obnoxiousness pervaded the air. When I played heads-up, I just slowly bled chips.

(2) The dealer made a blackjack (no hole card here) or 21 almost exclusively on the occasions when I hit or doubled to a twenty.

(3) In the first THREE HOURS of my session, betting two boxes of $40+, I did not net win a SINGLE hand when the count was +2 or more. Yes you saw that one right. A success rate of 0%.

(4) I was never ahead of my initial value the entire session. I did have a few modest winning streaks of four our five hands when the count was negative and I was betting minimum. I had two losing streaks of 11 hands though.

I am really losing my belief that this is even a theoretically positive game. I have now lost more than $4000 in the last month and I only have $3500 of my original $7700 profit for the year as of mid-February. My personal view is that I will continue playing, until I inevitably reach the rugged settlement of Zero and enter Minusland. I have a gnawing feeling that this is only going to take another four or five sessions.

In the meantime I don't think I've done anything wrong. I've made LESS errors in the last few weeks simply by memorising my indices better.

I know that books say that all losing streaks come to an end and we will eventually win back our losses and then some. But I am just losing losing losing. And more importantly, LOSING WHEN I HAVE THE ADVANTAGE ON PAPER WHEN THE COUNTS ARE BIG. I still retain the belief that advantage IS related to TC because the REST OF THE TABLE WINS MORE HANDS. But I am just LOSING LOSING LOSING

I really would like your help. Please.

**mofungoo** · 03-19-2015, 03:58 PM

Originally Posted by mickeymouse

(1) On the table I was generally the ONLY one losing. There were countless hands when I got dealt a stiff and busted where everyone else got either a pat hand or drew to one. Then the dealer busted. Everyone else was so happy that their obnoxiousness pervaded the air. When I played heads-up, I just slowly bled chips.

(2) The dealer made a blackjack (no hole card here) or 21 almost exclusively on the occasions when I hit or doubled to a twenty.

(3) In the first THREE HOURS of my session, betting two boxes of $40+, I did not net win a SINGLE hand when the count was +2 or more. Yes you saw that one right. A success rate of 0%.

(4) I was never ahead of my initial value the entire session.

This is nearly an exact description of what happened to me a couple of weeks ago. A few days ago I went back and guess what? I smoked them, winning nearly every hand, never reaching my max bet, clocking a nice 4 figure win which is the best I've done this year so far. Stay with it, the math is right and it will come around.

**Jabberwocky** · 03-19-2015, 04:20 PM

Originally Posted by mofungoo

This is nearly an exact description of what happened to me a couple of weeks ago. A few days ago I went back and guess what? I smoked them, winning nearly every hand, never reaching my max bet, clocking a nice 4 figure win which is the best I've done this year so far. Stay with it, the math is right and it will come around.

I played a couple of hours yesterday and dropped 3% of my total bank or 8 max bets. All the dealers relentlessly kept getting blackjacks and/or drawing to 21. That's completely normal if you put in enough hours. I'm still way ahead of the game and now playing with a bankroll of 2,000 units. When you are in the process of bankroll-building, it is imperative that you stick to the strongest games available and the least crowded. You have to be a N0 miser. Wongers have the effect of reducing your N0.

**DSchles** · 03-19-2015, 04:52 PM

You really, really need to read Chapter 12, BJA3, "A Random Walk Down the Strip."

Don

**tjr5259** · 03-19-2015, 05:41 PM

Originally Posted by DSchles

You really, really need to read Chapter 12, BJA3, "A Random Walk Down the Strip."

Don

Quick question for you sir. Would you recommend reading BJA3 front to back or is skipping around alright?

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**Three** · 03-19-2015, 07:21 PM

Originally Posted by tjr5259

Quick question for you sir. Would you recommend reading BJA3 front to back or is skipping around alright?

Read it cover to cover and then read each chapter in whatever order you want really slowly mentally ruminating trough the contents. Each chapter will make you a better player and get you more money in the casino.

**Nikky_Flash** · 03-19-2015, 08:06 PM

am I understanding that you made more than $ 1000 a month this year - straight profit , from cards ? or is there something I'm missing here ?

**Three** · 03-19-2015, 08:07 PM

I could tell you about my losing streaks blah, blah, blah. We all encounter them at some point and they test or mettle. What I will tell you is your biggest loses will come in the best situations. Can you imagine a shoe you are playing heads up that gets you to max bet quickly and stays there through the end of the shoe and you lose almost every hand. It happens. You tend to lose big when you get a great opportunity to make money but lose anyway. It sounds like you are playing crowded conditions. That can invite losing streaks as well. You just don't get enough max bets out when the opportunity presents itself to have much affect on the variance of the situation. The law of averages tat works in your favor isn't working much here.

Imagine flipping a coin. you know you should expect 50/50 heads/tails but what if you flip the coin once, what do you expect? Either 100% heads or 100% tails with a 50% chance of each possible outcome. Twice you get 25% of the time 100% heads and 25% of the time 100% tails and 50% of the time 50/50. You will never win 50% of the time on the next hand and there are no pushes in this theoretical but keeping with the 50/50 proposition if you make 5 max bets you win (or lose) 100% of the bets 3.125% of the time, you win 4 and lose 1 netting 3 wins (or 3 loses for the flip side of the coin) 15.625% of the time, or you won 3 and lose 2 netting 1 win (or 1 loss for the flip side of the coin) 31.25% of the time. The idea here is to show how you need some reps to get close to expectation and a crowded table will hurt the number of reps and increase the spread away from expectation. Your results become much less certain. You don't want a higher degree of uncertainty. That heads up game that kicked your ass had a high degree of certainty but there is still a relatively small chance you will get your ass kicked.

What you should be asking yourself is, Is your game selection inviting uncertainty? Are you making mistakes? It sounds like you are. What can I do to be better prepared to make no mistakes? Finally, can I make better choices of when and where to play and with what dealers? Figure these things out by scouting and better preparation and go back to wherever you find that gives you the most certainty to win and kick some ass.

**DSchles** · 03-19-2015, 08:12 PM

Whatever makes you happy. Most of the chapters are stand-alone and don't depend on what comes before to make sense.

Don

**muckz** · 03-20-2015, 12:25 AM

I'm on a 3 month losing streak. Mainly due to about 3 very unlucky sessions. I decided to change my game up. Previously I had a minimum requirement of <15k n0. I've changed that to < 10k and most games I play now are around 5k n0. You may want to look into doing the same. So far still losing...but you can't lose forever...right?

**mofungoo** · 03-20-2015, 04:34 AM

Originally Posted by tjr5259

Quick question for you sir. Would you recommend reading BJA3 front to back or is skipping around alright?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It requires 3 readings to learn. Read the entire book, then go back to the harder to understand parts, work out the math, etc., then reread the parts you wish to focus on.

**Aslan** · 03-20-2015, 05:28 AM

Life presents disastrous remote possibilities too numerous to list each and every day. You have great job at a time when jobs are very difficult to find. Then, the boss fires you to hire his nephew.

One thing I find interesting in card counting is that we deliberately design a disastrous remote possibility, since there is no sure thing. Does that make card counting a gamble? Yes, but it is a calculated risk, much smaller than many disastrous risks we face daily. Still, it's a self-inflicted risk and hardly anyone, save another gambler, is sympathetic to the card counter who goes down in flames. "He was a gambling man!" they say.

**paymypush** · 03-20-2015, 05:36 AM

[QUOTE=mickeymouse;155711]

(2) The dealer made a blackjack (no hole card here) or 21 almost exclusively on the occasions when I hit or doubled to a twenty.

Why are you doubling against an ace or 10? Is there an index for that?