Big Spread or 2 Hands?

[LV_STATUS]

Hi

Can you guys help me with this thought process? 16:1 spread vs 2 hands 8:1 spread. Which is better?

1 hand at $5 min going to $80 max.

or

2 hand at $10 min going to $80 max.

Option 1 has a much bigger spread, thus it should be more profitable in terms of risk/reward while option 2, the EV should be less, but the hourly should be greater because I'm simply risking more money right? Am I missing anything? Which option should I do in terms of EV, generating money and what not. THANKS!

[The Suburbs]

Buy CVCX and you can learn the answers yourself.

At your stakes my answer would be option C: 1 hand at $5 going to 2 hands of $80.

[terry0222]

First of all, I concur with the poster who suggested you buy CVCX. With that product you can postulate all kinds of questions, and arrive at the appropriate answers based upon the the strategy you personally use to make decisions.

Your question is a common one. However, I caution you that it's not all about EV. That is, risk is the other primary issue. If strategy A offers an EV of XX%, while strategy B offers an EV of XX + Y %, does that make strategy B "better?" Perhaps not, once risk is factored into the equation. (Hence, the use of CVCX). That is why there are such concepts as Kelly factor and SCORE.

Buy the software. Ultimately, for many questions the answer is "it depends." And only you can decide how to weight the variables. But, if you look ONLY at EV, you are being short-sighted. (In my opinion).

[bigplayer]

1x1 to 1x16 is better than 1x1 to 2x8. The thing about two hands is that you'd be betting 2x12 with the same risk as 1x16 so I'd say that 1x1 to 2x12 is better than 1x1 to 1x16 in most cases (the exception being heads up where it's a toss-up).

[Bodarc]

Something I don't understand if someone will explain it. It seems to me that on heads up high counts, you'd want to get the most hands. If you play one hand, you are splitting the available high count hands 50/50 with the dealer but if you play 2 hands, you'd get 2/3 of the good high count hands before the count dropped?

[Three]

You also must get the money on the table and mange risk.If you split you 1x16 bet into 2x8 you would eat 50% more cards and get the same money on the table. You would reduce risk but the smaller amount of money per card used at the high count would cost you. 2x12 gets 50% more money out while eating up 50% more cards and has the same risk as 1x16. These stats are assuming you are heads up with the dealer. Like BP said no difference in expectation but there may be a difference in heat. It is said by those that frequent Vegas that spreading to 2 hands draws heat. If you always played 2 hands except when the count tanks the spreading heat would not be an issue because you are not spreading. In many other parts of the country this type of spreading heat is not as big an issue. It all depends on the specific local. If there are others at the table it is always better to play 2 hands with an advantage and 1 hand at a disadvantage because there are times you want more hands and times you want others to eat the cards. If you play 2 hands bet 75% of your 1 hand bet to keep the risk and when heads up it keep the money on the table per card the same.

[RS]

Something I don't understand if someone will explain it. It seems to me that on heads up high counts, you'd want to get the most hands. If you play one hand, you are splitting the available high count hands 50/50 with the dealer but if you play 2 hands, you'd get 2/3 of the good high count hands before the count dropped?

Before the count drops? The True Count does not expect to change when more cards come out. You expect the TC to remain what it is "now".

[Bodarc]

Thanks Rolling

I understand as the running count changes the number of remaining decks drop also. I just didn't think about it.

If anyone ever needs a probability math geek for their team >>>>>>> It AIN'T ME! hehe

[Aslan]

1x1 to 1x16 is better than 1x1 to 2x8. The thing about two hands is that you'd be betting 2x12 with the same risk as 1x16 so I'd say that 1x1 to 2x12 is better than 1x1 to 1x16 in most cases (the exception being heads up where it's a toss-up).

Agree.

[Aslan]

You also must get the money on the table and mange risk.If you split you 1x16 bet into 2x8 you would eat 50% more cards and get the same money on the table. You would reduce risk but the smaller amount of money per card used at the high count would cost you. 2x12 gets 50% more money out while eating up 50% more cards and has the same risk as 1x16. These stats are assuming you are heads up with the dealer. Like BP said no difference in expectation but there may be a difference in heat. It is said by those that frequent Vegas that spreading to 2 hands draws heat. If you always played 2 hands except when the count tanks the spreading heat would not be an issue because you are not spreading. In many other parts of the country this type of spreading heat is not as big an issue. It all depends on the specific local. If there are others at the table it is always better to play 2 hands with an advantage and 1 hand at a disadvantage because there are times you want more hands and times you want others to eat the cards. If you play 2 hands bet 75% of your 1 hand bet to keep the risk and money on the table per acrd the same.

Also, agree.