Hitting 16 v 10 at high counts is not the correct strategy if you are counting ellenc.Originally Posted by ellenc
Hitting 16 v 10 at high counts is not the correct strategy if you are counting ellenc.
Play within your bankroll, pick your games with care and learn everything you can about the game. The winning will come. It has to. It's in the cards. -- Bryce Carlson
I agree with you totally. However, basic strategy without counting, 15,16 v 10 is a hit. with counting of Reko, RC 2 and above is a stand. Someone could run the simulator to see how big deference does it make. Counting is only part of the winning strategy, there is a variance. We all experienced that a dealer kept drawing cards without bursting, miraculously get a 20, 21; the player simply mimic the dealer doing , draw to 17 or higher. Sure, it deviates from counting rule. But doing so, not only it provides certain degree of cover, yet, you might win, for the theory of previous posting.
Last edited by ellenc; 03-15-2015 at 09:05 PM. Reason: typo errors
I've recently begun to restrain myself from going overboard by limiting myself with only 500 betting units per session (literally all i bring). My main bj sessions are going relatively well for now, despite giving back 80 units of profit last night and ending down 20 units (after losing about 60 units max betting the LL sidebet with my partner who is tracking that game while I track the main). Maybe coincidence but 3x 678 and 1x 777 were hit during our session when we put the max bet out. Very interested to see further results down the road regarding 2 systems at 1 tables for main & side game.
While I'm not here to argue I think its pretty naive of one to say that buying and holding great companies is the only way to go about in the market. personally I have found success in the so called bullshit online through ta and such non-scientific means. With that said, we're all biased in our own ways. Lastly, there's a misconception here that I don't understand bankroll management and what not - I wouldn't be bringing up ROR and having a sarcastic laugh about all of this if I did not. As many have pointed out, such bankroll growth in such a short amount of time, is addictive to say the least and I'm well aware that I am on the positive side of things. From my perspective, I don't value investing the time and nurturing a small BR for a relative small hourly when there are other means of profitability. Take the chance of going busto and if I survive it, build it into something sizeable with moderate returns, then properly bet in relation to the BR. If I fail again?, I just have to rebuild. Of course this is all said on paper and whether or not I follow it will be another story. I don't doubt it, but usually this mentality is a reflection of the personality and approach to the game. Odds are, I'm more likely to go broke than succeed (even if I hit my short term goal). I guess typing this out to you guys is more of a way of me venting out and reconfirming how terribly wrong this method is.
At ellenc, at any positive running count you're not supposed to hit your 16s against a 10 - at least from what I've read. If the TC is high, which I assume 5-6, you're also not supposed to hit. But perhaps the deviations are different for your system. Also hitting and standing on 15-16s don't provide for cover, the hand can go either way for the majority of people and they wouldn't think your decision was based off on the count. Doubling down on a max bet at soft 20 vs a 5 is a different story.
@ Aslan: to finish this off on a positive note, thanks for your words truly. Every time I sit down for a session with my approach to the game, there's a pretty decent chance my BR could take a massive hit if things don't go correctly. Hopefully it never catches up, hopefully I get to a decent bankroll size soon and just be content with my sizing and stay there for a very very long time.
I'm closing up my first IMPROVED 100 hours in this month and half. Yes I hit my local store 4-5 hours a day at 3/4 days a week. Been experience negative variance slightly more lately but overall I'm coming out at 16 betting units an hour. #runninggood
Last edited by 20 to 1 Spread; 03-16-2015 at 08:21 PM.
I think this question's been answered and you helped answer it yourself, the ROR situation. Did the amount lost hurt of affect you somehow... did the amount lost cripple you financially? One of the most profound statements I can recall in reference to ROR as an AP is, "Your bankroll is nothing more than a number that goes up and down on a ledger when you think about it. Does it have an effect on your bills being paid or any quality of life factors? If it does, your ROR is too high or you're doing something wrong." If I take a 5 or 6K loss one fine day, I can simply go grab out another 5 or 10K and go on business as usual the next, it's the aberration and not the norm though and I look at things in terms of a year, not a few individual playing sessions. If you take excessive losses for a sustained period of time then obviously you need to evaluate your play for effectiveness. I like as close to zero ROR as possible. I think you've figured out that you need to read, study and tighten up your game if you wish to continue along with operating within a more reasonable ROR, maybe stop playing until you do those things, etc.
Here's my current update as a new & improved card counter at RENO & backed off - without fear of going busto (I set my ROR pretty high).
Day 1: Peppermill 6 deck shoe game. Quick 1 hour session ended down 5 units. Returned later after food to have a naked table to myself and played heads up against this dealer in the 6 deck shoe (standard rules 4.5 - 5 / 6 decks pen). I won 3 hands out of the entire shoe at min. I lost all my tiny ramp bets as well. I have never experienced so many hand losses in a row. It was play-all since it was the only naked shoe game so I ate some -TC hands. Ended the day down 40 units.
Day 2: Silver Palace?: Still hit the 6 deck shoe games. I heard about the HIT AND DOUBLE over here and thought this was the most beautiful thing I've ever heard. I jumped in early on a shoe and started playing. I was excited to take advantage of this, but got no chance at the first shoe. However something odd happen, the dealer shuffled relatively early without many cards passing. What I feared came to passing within the next minute. The dealer put the cut card half way through the shoe - I was playing a 3 / 6 Deck Penetration game. Dont matter. I can beat the odds. They didnt bat an eye as I spreaded 1 unit to 40 units and one time I had over $1K in a hand from splitting 3s against a 5. I lost the hand. Nearly angry and defeated, but still early in my session, I left that shitty penetration game and figured I'd go gamble at the single deck. I ended up doing a 4 hour session at that table and nearly retraced all my losses from the shoe game. I was happy being down around 40 units into day 2.
Day 3: Did some quick research regarding single and DD games. Didn't look into the variations for Hi Lo or what not, but the simple stuff and what's needed to beat the game etc. Returned to Peppermill and played the single deck. First 2-3 hours I was slightly down. What I realized about single deck and this was all new to me, you can only go 2-3 rounds if you have a 3-4 people at your table. Took me a few shuffles to realize this and when my table got full, card counting became annoying. Literally round 1 would come by and if you had any positive TC, I guess you're betting it because that's the last round of the deck. I couldn't even spread at the table at the end because it just became full. I left to find a $25 min table DD so I can play heads up. ------> found one with an old man betting $100 flat and spreading to $400 at max. This was good cover for me. I did a 2-3 hour session, the count never got higher than TC 4-5 and I spreaded $25 min to $150 max. A very very weak spread compared to what I was used to for shoe games, but I read this was still very profitable at a $25 min DD. Most of the time I spreaded to $25 to $80. I ended the session up $900. I left to go eat with my friend. I came back with my friend (the same guy who counts Lucky Lucky Side bet with me) at my local and restarted my session at Peppermill. this was a silly mistake. I guess I've become to numb to my local store never banning me, so I pushed my luck. I started spreading exactly like earlier with my friend now playing on the table doing a similar ratio but starting at $50 min. Within the hour he comes up around $1.5K and I'm pushing about $100 profit. The deck finally got hot again and I push out a bet of $100 and my friend does $250. A hand from nowhere reaches out and pushes my bet back and I look at the guy and he said those words, your play is too good you're not welcomed? (cant fully remember after the first 4 words) Yikes. My first back off. I didn't think much of it and said alrighty and walked away. For an extra $100 and getting backed off, I guess I really should've done some serious spreading. I can return to play again right, this is just a back off and not an actual ban. Just give it 6-12 months?
Day 3 Continued: After the backoff I go to atlantis? and hit their single deck. I play HU for 60% and with 1 other 40%. Within the hour I come up 30 units. A little gun shy from the earlier back off I step away from the table to find another empty table. None open besides another 6 deck shoe game. Sure I'll sit down. Within 20 minutes and all my big bets and spreading to 2 hands split and doubling, I'm now about 10 units down. A little annoyed at shoe games lately, I return to the single deck and after 3 decks (roughly 10-15 minutes), I end the Atlantis session up 1 unit.
Things to know for future players who are in a similar state:
- Peppermill has plenty of tables so if you're gonna do AP stuff, bounce around. Seriously. And don't return after a massive win. I guess they were okay with me profiting that amount, but when I came back for more, that crossed their threshold.
- Silver Palace: the hit and double down is a scam with the shoe game being at 50% penetration. I don't know the math on it, but your big bets shouldn't be able to hit and double down too often. Not worth.
- Atlantis: Pit floor from my experience were pretty oblivious and if you're looking for dealers who dont call black action and dont tell their floor how much you buy in for etc etc, this might be your place.
My card counting adventures continue for the rest of the week. Either Sunday or Monday I'll have one rest day and go to my local store to bet massive before MIA again for Vegas. With that said, my $168 hourly recently met some negative variance when I had a $3K hand lose. I bet two hands of $500 at some high RC and got 8-3 and 7-7; dealer shows a 2. I split the 7-7 and get 2 more 7s splitting them for 7-10, 7-3, 7-2, 7,4, i double down on those 3 and make one 21. I double my 8-3 and got like a 18. The dealer has an 8 underneath the 2 and an ace from space came out. Yikes. I'm not all run good, negative variance. With that said, I'm currently still running pretty ahead of expectations.
whoever said I'll go busto at vegas, I should get 2:1 odds on that bet
Last edited by 20 to 1 Spread; 03-22-2015 at 05:10 AM.
Now an older man, your.osts remind me that I told a million lies to myself, far more than all the lies I told to others over my life. Luckily, at a little older age than you, I had the good sense to move from San Bernardino, Ca to Dayton, Ohio (" you are quitting California for Dayton, Ohio??") when there were no casinos in Ohio.
Now that I am retiring, I started a two year experiment to see whether I can have success counting cards. While I won some $19k in my first year, and another $5800 this January, I am in a prolonged 2 month losing sessions where I have lost $5300. I am beginning to think that while there is positive EV, the real fact is that I am likely an addict and thus, retire to a state and city at least 4-5 hours from a casino to limit the addiction.
If you're going to have an addiction, best to have one with the odds in your favor, no? I think the addiction is part gambling and part knowing you have the odds with you, so it's not a true degenerate addiction. So long as you are properly bankrolled and doing everything according to AP Hoyle, so what? Sometimes I think people (not you) create a bankroll out of money they cannot afford to lose. Even it your ROR is 1/2% you still have a 1 in 200 chance of losing it all. If you can't afford to lose it all, why tempt fate? Bankroll needs to be from discretionary cash, not needed cash. I am preaching to myself hoping to keep myself on the straight and narrow.
Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 - 8/23/10... “Life’s most urgent question is: what are you doing for others?” — Martin Luther King, Jr.
Addiction is addiction whether you are winning $$$ or not. Yes, you might win $$$$ but there are other serious costs of addiction, for example, you visit casinos when your parents or your kids might appreciate a visit from you, where your spouse might want to do something else. You may end up sacrificing a lot of things in life.
There is no such thing as "negative variance."
Variance is standard deviation squared and is always a positive.
You have a lot of flaws in your game that you will need to improve on if you plan on playing blackjack for a long time.
(1) There's no need to list specific casinos you play at, which day and time, and other identifiable details on a public forum. Remain as anonymous as possible. If you go to Vegas, avoid doing this.
(2) You're still playing way too long. You mentioned 4-5 hour sessions. Many books (Andersen, Carlson, etc) recommend 45-60 minute sessions, or reaching a certain win threshold, whichever comes first.
(3) It sounds like you really don't have the patience for this since you're spreading wildly just because you have a small advantage (if you even do have one).
(4) A 1-2% advantage isn't much. Bukofsky's book gave the jelly bean example for a 2% edge: in a jar of 100 jelly beans, green being the player and red being the house, you'll come out with 51 and the house will come out with 49 in the long run. So if you bet the farm each time, you will lose before getting to the long run.
(5) Playing a 3/6 6D out of pride and going 1-40 is just terrible. Many books state to only play in good conditions, or don't play at all.
Just because blackjack can be beaten, doesn't mean it's easy or doable in a few sessions or hours. Don't fall into the trap of thinking it's easy money.
Posting Permissions
-*-
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks