Longevity??

[Drec70]

Hi all, long time lurker first time posting. First off I want to thank all of you contributors for providing countless and selfless posts helping and educating “us” in AP BJ.

I’ve been pondering the following in my head unable to come up with an answer. I have read multiple posts here and in several books the concept of longevity, and letting it, along with the use of N0, +EV, point to thousands (or tens of thousands more) of rounds being required to let the “math” work it self out to start truly being profitable in AP BJ (understanding BR +/- swings during the process.

The question: Given the above, assuming perfect basic strategy with, let’s say Hi-Low, and the same game rules, couldn’t I or someone use Verite (or other BJ simulator) to play these thousands and thousands of hands with 10k (simulation chips) then with all things being equal play at a live casino (using a real BR of where I left off in Verite) and have the thousands of simulated carry forward to my live play.

I apologize if this sounds completely ridiculous, but theoretically it should work. If not, then why not. (aside from not having actual possible winnings I may have had playing thousands of simulated BJ, that’s not my question).

Just had another thought while writing this. Let’s say I’m playing live and coming up on what seems to be a losing streak. (I know it can go from one hand to months), but what if I play simulated until I “feel” the streak is over and go back to playing live. Will it work? It is, after all, my longevity regardless of where or how (live or sim) I play the hands for my overall BJ game??

Thanks.

[bjarg]

I hope you are kidding man...

[Drec70]

Explain your comment. I wouldn't post if I was kidding.

Explain how it makes a difference in a sim vs live.

[bjarg]

I think it is you who need to explain how it is you came up with such a ridiculous idea.

[Drec70]

Numbers and math aren't prejudice as to where you play the game. I did explain it in my first post. If you don't have a constructive reply, then why reply at all. "Ridiculous idea" is not a response. Seems to me you can't properly explain why it wouldn't work. Thanks for your input anyways.

[bjarg]

Me thinks you have been playing with numbers and formulas a little bit too long.

So explain to me how this theory of yours work.
You go to a casino.
You sit down at a blackjack table and you start playing.
At that moment there is some sort of entity that looks into your record of play and says: hey man, this guy has played thousands of simulated hands and he has already reach n0 so we must adjust the results for them to fit his EV.

Seriously... stop crunching numbers and step back to the real world.
If you are thinkin your actual casino results are going to change because you have played a computer game then there is something seriously wrong with you.

[bjarg]

I just explained it.
Your actual results are going to be exactly the same, whether you play at your home or not.
So playing at your house with CV thinking that will help you get to the long run faster and thus improve your results is a STUPID idea (not ridiculous).

[Drec70]

At that moment there is some sort of entity that looks into your record of play and says: hey man, this guy has played thousands of simulated hands and he has already reach n0 so we must adjust the results for them to fit his EV.

And Me thinks that this statement you made also holds true for having played thousands of hands live. Its not gonna say "this guy has play thousands of hands and reached his N0 live so we must adjust the results" You still have not answered the question correctly. This game, and the "edge" is based on pure math. Not real world and it's deviations. Let someone constructive answer please. Don't hate.

[Norm]

N0, EV, SCORE, all of these stats are forward-looking. The past is meaningless. Cards don't know that you had a past.

[Drec70]

I just explained it.
Your actual results are going to be exactly the same, whether you play at your home or not.
So playing at your house with CV thinking that will help you get to the long run faster and thus improve your results is a STUPID idea (not ridiculous).

I never said anything about being faster. And you haven't explained a thing. Just ignorant comments with no back up. Dude, let some one else answer and don't fill the post with nothing substantial.

[Drec70]

N0, EV, SCORE, all of these stats are forward-looking. The past is meaningless. Cards don't know that you had a past.

Thanks for the input Norm, very appreciated. So that means I don't need thousands of hands to be profitable live? I always read people say, it's all about the longterm. I guess just by always falling on the right side of deviation, It'll be fine, if my bank roll drops on a losing streak i hear and read say to stick it out, but that can be different and ROR is knocking at your door. So previous time played is irrelevant, to the long haul ?

[bjarg]

This game, and the "edge" is based on pure math. Not real world and it's deviations.

Thanks man.
Looking forward to learning more from you.

For your sake (and your money's) I really hope you are a fast learner.
For future reference: dont confuse longevity with long run. Those are two different terms used to reference two very different things.

[Drec70]

For future reference: dont confuse longevity with long run. Those are two different terms used to reference two very different things.

Ok, now your talking. I was under the assumption that they were very close in definition. I was reading the post about the "rant" and almost all the responses were towards giving it time, that the OP had just started out and he needed to keep playing, meaning additional playing was required to truly have a positive outcome. And I also saw the link to N0, part of it below that states needing to play many hands just to break even. That's why I posted my question. My thought is if you need to play so many hands per the article below just to break even, why not just play them simulated to "get them out of the way".

I see my error. I'm assuming all of those hands are needed before you can expect to win, but there is a possibility that you can start off winning and the "long run" comes in to factor winning back any initial or subsequent losses and increasing bankroll. I can see how my first post seems idiotic





Understanding N0 - Introduction

The AP Blackjack term 'N0' (N-Zero – not N-Oh) is not used a great deal in the popular Blackjack card counting literature. This is unfortunate because understanding N0 is, perhaps, the greatest advance you can make after you learn how to count cards. On the other hand, NOT understanding N0 can cause your card counting career to completely fail.Despite its importance, you'll rarely see a thorough discussion of N0 in most of the literature on Blackjack card counting. Why is N0 not covered in depth by every book on card counting? Partly, this may be due to the fact that the 'invention' of N0 by Dr. Brett Harris came in the late 1990's, well after the seminal work on the theory of Blackjack card counting had been done by Ed Thorp (“Beat the Dealer”, 1962), Stanford Wong (“Professional Blackjack”, 1975) and Peter Griffin (“The Theory of Blackjack”, 1979).Also, like the ideas underlying Peter Griffin's work, 'The Theory of Blackjack,' the ideas underlying N0 are not intuitive and readily grasped. Understanding N0 requires some understanding of statistics, a field steeped in mathematics. Authors, editors and publishers learned long ago that many in the public detest math and anything to do with it. So, if you're trying to write a book that will sell, it's often better to leave out as much math as possible.Further, N0 tells card counters that it will take somewhere around 10,000 - 20,000 rounds of quality play before they begin to have a good chance of NOT BEING BEHIND. That seems a bit pessimistic but N0 isn't focused so much on being ahead but, rather, the focus is more on not being in the hole.