Losing streak rant

[Koz84]

I had the pleasure of meeting MM a couple weeks ago in my home town of Melbourne. He definitely is a winning player and I have done my best to encourage him to not give up. He has access to a 0.38% HE game in Australia, with a $10 minimum. A very rare thing for us. The pit also believe this particular game is "unbeatable". I don't wish to go into any more detail than that. MM, keep going, you're just experiencing what the very best of us have all achieved in our AP career, some of us even to the tune of 5 or 6 figures.

[Jabberwocky]

Ian Andersen recounted the occasion where he lost 1,450 units at one property on negative flux. He ended up being barred after recovering it all plus another several hundred units. This stuff can and will happen to anyone.
"When you lose, expect it." - Richard Parsons

[mickeymouse]

I went through my records today and found that as of today, my session record is 21-12 for the year and $4240 in front. But my graph is beginning to look uncannily like a symmetrical mountain range.

[DSchles]

$128+ per session (way above expectation) and a session win rate of 63.6% (also way above, if sessions are one hour). Everyone should have your "problem"!

Don

[mickeymouse]

my sessions are usually much longer than an hour, although they have ranged from 10 minutes to 8 hours. 2-3 hr is a typical figure.

[Nikky_Flash]

" if there's one thing I hate , its learning a lesson " -
Peter Griffen -
ironically , not the card counter - but from " family guy"

[mickeymouse]

I have to say a big thank you to everyone here who posted and offered me advice, you are some of the most understanding people in the industry.
I should have started doing this a lot earlier when I was a student. With my current day job one actually has to play reasonably hard just to get a worthwhile theoretical rate. It's all within the bounds of variation but when those nasty streaks occur they can leave you really demoralised and deflated. Especially after all those good times I am soon headed for the rugged town of Zero and the deserts of Minusland.

[Blitzkrieg]

I started card counting this year, and for the first 20 sessions, I did remarkably well. My theoretical win rate was about $40-50 an hour and I was well above this average. At my maximum, I was $7700 ahead for the year.

Since then, I have lost about 65% of my sessions, and have lost almost half my profit.

Today I had by far the worst session of my career. The dealer got an ace or a ten hole card for the entire first two-thirds of the first shoe. And things didn't get better from there. It was as if she just magically was able to get one more than me every single hand. And I busted on every stiff hand, well 75% anyway, that I was dealt. Meanwhile the table of idiots manages to grind out a win courtesy of the dealer busting - after I get to be the only one who busts, each and every time.

Since Feb 15 it's just been a familiar story. The roller coaster dives way down, moves up a little, plateaus for a while and then plummets again.

I no longer have the desire to continue this hobby and I just feel I have wasted my time.

I believe it would be better if you stopped playing altogether if you no longer have the desire to play any longer. I believe your right.

[Aslan]

I started card counting this year, and for the first 20 sessions, I did remarkably well. My theoretical win rate was about $40-50 an hour and I was well above this average. At my maximum, I was $7700 ahead for the year.

Since then, I have lost about 65% of my sessions, and have lost almost half my profit.

Today I had by far the worst session of my career. The dealer got an ace or a ten hole card for the entire first two-thirds of the first shoe. And things didn't get better from there. It was as if she just magically was able to get one more than me every single hand. And I busted on every stiff hand, well 75% anyway, that I was dealt. Meanwhile the table of idiots manages to grind out a win courtesy of the dealer busting - after I get to be the only one who busts, each and every time.

Since Feb 15 it's just been a familiar story. The roller coaster dives way down, moves up a little, plateaus for a while and then plummets again.

I no longer have the desire to continue this hobby and I just feel I have wasted my time.

What was your win rate? Are you still succeeding as far as that is concerned? For example, it is not uncommon for one's expected outcome to be, say, $700, over a certain number of hands, whereas there actual experience is, say, $7,700. The truth is, the additional $7,000 must be attributed to variance, not a reflection of one's actual advantage.

As we all know, the bell curve that describes variance from the norm, shows us that there are two sides to variance, or luck. What you may have experienced in your first 20 sessions may have been largely due to positive variance. I like to think of it this way: the money that I won over and above my win rate is really not my own in the sense that over the long run I am likely to experience the same variance in the opposite direction.

True, it was you "profit," but only in this educated sense. If you examine what happened to you, you may find that you are not so far from your expected value and that's a good thing. This perspective should help you tolerate the extreme variance that blackjack routinely dishes out to those who dare to play.

I feel sure that many an otherwise successful career at card counting has been ruined by starting with a run of negative variance, while many an actually successful career began with a run of positive variance, keeping them from overreacting to negative variance when it eventually rears its ugly head. What it serves to point out is the necessity of adequate bankroll and the need to stand calm and resolute in the face of adversity, trusting in the mathematics of card counting.

My suggestion is that you put aside all "profits" that exceed your expected win rate as a cushion for that rainy day of negative variance. It does not have to come, but if you ask any of the advantage players on this forum whether it has ever come for them, I am confident you will find no exceptions.

You will feel better as you get further away from your negative experience. But you may still wish to reevaluate the rewards likely to come from your 1/2% to 1 1/2% advantage over time compared to the amount of bankroll required, the possible extreme ups and downs, and the patience required, I can well understand your feeling that it is a waste of time. Few have the temperament to turn card counting into a profitable hobby or living. It can truly be an exasperating experience.

Good variance to you in all your future endeavors!

[Three]

It does not have to come, but if you ask any of the advantage players on this forum whether it has ever come for them, I am confident you will find no exceptions.

As everyone probably knows I do everything to increase certainty and reduce swings and I can tell you nasty runs are inevitable. You may reduce their likelihood and probable magnitude but there will be times you end up in the tails of the expectation bell curve. When you are on the winning side it is easily forgotten but when you are on the losing side it can test your ability to be an AP. I have found taking a break if the bad swing lasts long enough really helps. I try to play through it but eventually I have to consider maybe I developed bad habits after winning so often or in order to make up for lost ground. I take some time off to improve my game with study and a deeper knowledge and play occasionally until the winning starts to happen again.

Oddly on a year after year basis my tough stretch seems to pay attention to the calender. It hits the same time every year. I don't put any significance to this and hopefully it is short enough lived to not take some time to study and come back with a stronger game. I have totally changed my approach to the math of the game during these breaks to make math mistakes basically impossible. That's the cool thing about math, any problem can be worked a number of ways to get the same answer. I have identified various possible reasons for errors that most likely didn't occur and changed the process to eliminate the possibility. It was most likely just variance but you must feel good about pushing those big bets out. After enough of a losing streak that confidence can be tested. The important thing if your confidence has gone down is to have one of two things happen. Winning brings your confidence back or you audit your approach to feel like you have destroyed a problem that may simply be in your head. Usually anything you do that helps with the latter makes you game stronger.

Good luck wit whatever you decide to do. If you can't handle the swings you should probably quit. If you can right your head and trust the math while really understanding what you are trusting you are on the right track. We are always here for you to help you get there if tat is what you want to do.

[Aslan]

As everyone probably knows I do everything to increase certainty and reduce swings and I can tell you nasty runs are inevitable. You may reduce their likelihood and probable magnitude but there will be times you end up in the tails of the expectation bell curve. When you are on the winning side it is easily forgotten but when you are on the losing side it can test your ability to be an AP. I have found taking a break if the bad swing lasts long enough really helps. I try to play through it but eventually I have to consider maybe I developed bad habits after winning so often or in order to make up for lost ground. I take some time off to improve my game with study and a deeper knowledge and play occasionally until the winning starts to happen again.

Oddly on a year after year basis my tough stretch seems to pay attention to the calender. It hits the same time every year. I don't put any significance to this and hopefully it is short enough lived to not take some time to study and come back with a stronger game. I have totally changed my approach to the math of the game during these breaks to make math mistakes basically impossible. That's the cool thing about math, any problem can be worked a number of ways to get the same answer. I have identified various possible reasons for errors that most likely didn't occur and changed the process to eliminate the possibility. It was most likely just variance but you must feel good about pushing those big bets out. After enough of a losing streak that confidence can be tested. The important thing if your confidence has gone down is to have one of two things happen. Winning brings your confidence back or you audit your approach to feel like you have destroyed a problem that may simply be in your head. Usually anything you do that helps with the latter makes you game stronger.

Good luck wit whatever you decide to do. If you can't handle the swings you should probably quit. If you can right your head and trust the math while really understanding what you are trusting you are on the right track. We are always here for you to help you get there if tat is what you want to do.

Wise words, Tthree.

When faced with especially negative variance, self-doubt is nearly impossible to avoid. We plan properly and we execute flawlessly. Then bad variance hits us right between the eyes. The questions abound:

- Is the science all that it's cracked up to be?

- Did the casino somehow cheat me?

- Am I kidding myself into thinking I executed flawlessly?

- Am I the one in a million who is just unlucky?

- Am I a degenerate gambler using card counting as a justification for my gambling behavior?

- It happened once; what's to say it won't happen again in short order-- and again and again?

All of this boils down to self doubt. Maybe I'm not as good as I thought I was, or I maybe I am not capable of handling what is happening to me ,or maybe I have unwittingly bought into a rosy picture of advantage play that just does not exist in the real world.

The truth is:

(1) the science is just that-- science. It is not a respecter of persons. It is what it is and it has been proven over and over again by virtue of billions of simulations and by application of mathematics;

(2) casinos have been known to cheat in the past, sometimes involving particular pit people unbeknown to management to improve their stats or to cover thievery, and sometimes in smaller casinos, or illegal casinos, with full knowledge of management because they are crooks; however, experience shows that runs of cards that have the "appearance" of cheating are far, far more numerous than all the actual cheating that takes place;

(3) after practicing ad nauseam, you are probably close to as good as you think you are, and should realize that a small mistake here and there is easily absorbed in the long run, many plays being near neutral in their instant effect and contributing very little to large swings in variance; in general, it takes systemic problems with your play for this to be a significant factor;

(4) you may be the one in a million who is just unlucky, meaning that you are a hapless person whose real life experience is a statistical outlier; but do you conduct the rest of your life with such an assumption? Do you stop driving your car because you were involved is a serious accident? Do you live in a tent because your house burned down? Do you stop eating out because you suffered ptomaine poisoning from food consumption at an acclaimed and ostensibly clean restaurant? Do you move to Bolivia because of the ever present danger of nuclear war? (well, maybe. lol) The point is, it is one in a million or more; I know of no one in my life experience who is just unlucky all the time through no fault of his own;

(5) Yes, you may be a "compulsive" gambler, but, no, you are not degenerate if you use card counting as the means of satisfying your addiction, provided you follow all the rules and protocols of successful card counting; in fact, you are very wise, but you would be even wiser to seek professional help, since your compulsion could lead to an inability to avoid emotionally based behavior, such as, steamboating, playing with inadequate bankroll. or other such deleterious behavior; and

(6) yes, extreme negative variance can happen again and in quick succession, but that falls into that area of life that is pretty much unavoidable if you choose to live your life with a modicum of courage and not become a cowardly recluse; lightening does strike twice in the same spot; you can be a victim of identity theft no matter what steps you take, other than keeping are your valuables under your mattress-- pray the home burglars don't find out; and you can be infected with Western Equine Encephalitis if you are bitten by a mosquito in Minnesota.

Now, it's up to you. A 0.5% to 1.5% advantage on average is a very slim margin. Many advantage players have abandoned card counting to pursue less risky advantage plays, but some still rely primarily on card counting and are successful in doing so. I believe you are in good company to move to less risky advantage plays, but you should not do so merely on the basis of one bad experience with counting cards, but should do so based on your ability and stick-to-itiveness to master other casino skills.

There is nothing sacrosanct about card counting per se-- advantage play, not card counting, is the name of the game.

My philosophy is to always live life with an advantage, so long as I can do so without disadvantaging others in the moral sense. Gambling is an activity entered into by two or more consenting parties. There is nothing immoral about gambling nor winning at gambling. Your money is your money to do with as you see best.

In the case of casinos, your advantage will never put them out of business. And speaking of business, for casinos gambling is a business, and we would be wise ourselves to play blackjack as a business, paraphrasing the title of Lawrence Revere's famous book.

[Casino Kid]

During my first full year of play, I built up - from low spread red chip play - a bankroll of about 4500.

Damn, that seems a lot lower than what most people seem to recommend. Would you mind sharing what your unit/spread was at this point? Do you know what your RoR was?

[Freightman]

Damn, that seems a lot lower than what most people seem to recommend. Would you mind sharing what your unit/spread was at this point? Do you know what your RoR was?

Good question. Never did sim it - didn't have or know of the software at that point in time. Lots of hours yielding about 1 to 1.5 units per hour. I was essentially following what I had read of raising 1 unit more for each rise of 1 in true count. ROR would have been high due to low spread and small bankroll. I can actually check my old records and be a lot more precise. Now, when u say high ROR, I always separated bj bankroll from other assets. The actual fact of the matter was that ROR was 0, since it was highly replenishable. As I was becoming aware, I decided to start a dedicated bankroll which I started with $600 of seed money. I added about $200 of support money during those first months. I live in a tax free environment - never spent a dime of winnings until bankroll hit 30k. Ramp today is somewhat steeper, ranging between less than optimal to optimal depending on where I'm at. I've liberally spent from winnings for lots of extras - usually family related, and have a bj bankroll comfortably into 6 figures. I mention these items to emphasize importance of quality games during the formulative bankroll growing period. As conditions changed in my local market, and with my natural progression into higher stakes, and with the inevitable backoffs that came my way, I required the strong bankroll to withstand swings, and with the long term goal of increasing bankroll, even after "treats". And accounting for poorer games.