Losing streak rant

[mickeymouse]

I started card counting this year, and for the first 20 sessions, I did remarkably well. My theoretical win rate was about $40-50 an hour and I was well above this average. At my maximum, I was $7700 ahead for the year.

Since then, I have lost about 65% of my sessions, and have lost almost half my profit.

Today I had by far the worst session of my career. The dealer got an ace or a ten hole card for the entire first two-thirds of the first shoe. And things didn't get better from there. It was as if she just magically was able to get one more than me every single hand. And I busted on every stiff hand, well 75% anyway, that I was dealt. Meanwhile the table of idiots manages to grind out a win courtesy of the dealer busting - after I get to be the only one who busts, each and every time.

Since Feb 15 it's just been a familiar story. The roller coaster dives way down, moves up a little, plateaus for a while and then plummets again.

I no longer have the desire to continue this hobby and I just feel I have wasted my time.

[Three]

Today I had by far the worst session of my career. The dealer got an ace or a ten hole card for the entire first two-thirds of the first shoe. And things didn't get better from there. It was as if she just magically was able to get one more than me every single hand. And I busted on every stiff hand, well 75% anyway, that I was dealt. Meanwhile the table of idiots manages to grind out a win courtesy of the dealer busting - after I get to be the only one who busts, each and every time.

I had my best session I can remember wen I got just what you did every hand and I hit out at a really high count and the dealer busted every time I stood. I was on the sh*t end of the stick each hand probability wise after the initial cards were dealt but kept catching the card I needed to draw out on a slim chance hand. You play long enough you see everything and the long run includes all these crazy events.

Surrender helps a lot with max bet out getting these types of hands. When you get crushed because surrender is not an option it shows you how important game selection is.

Many counters fail because they can count great but neglect the 75% of success tat has nothing to do with counting. Like BR management, game selection, heat management, maximizing incentives and promos, maximizing player options and dealer errors. Choosing good playing conditions that minimize N0 making the long run more attainable, memorizing all the indices because some think correctly that most of the gain in EV for hands is achieved with a small number of indices but fail to understand that they can bet more at the same RoR and their N0 is reduced etc by having more indices and much more.

Learning to count is the beginning of becoming a profitable player. If you can count you should be able to play with an advantage but being successful is managing that to keep from busting your BR, managing heat and choosing situations that give YOU the best chances of success.

Good luck with whatever you decide. You probably won't find it easy to find but many frustrated with card counting move on to other techniques with much higher advantages on a wide variety of games. Perhaps a visit to Moo's camp would open some new opportunities for you. Maybe you aren't cut out for AP at all. Every one of us has been where you are now and we all had the same feelings. The ones that made it tended to try to improve their game. Not everyone can stomach the swings that area part of counting as an AP. Take some time if you don't have a copy of Blackjack Attack edition 3 get one. Read it once and then read each chapter very slowly and carefully in order to get the most from it. You should see vast improvements in results after each chapter is made a part of your play. The second read can focus on any chapter you want, it need not be in order of chapters in the book. Remember that second read is too really get and incorporate each chapter into your play. You may spend more time on an individual chapter than it took to read the entire book the first time.

[marriedputter]

I started card counting this year, and for the first 20 sessions, I did remarkably well. My theoretical win rate was about $40-50 an hour and I was well above this average. At my maximum, I was $7700 ahead for the year.

Since then, I have lost about 65% of my sessions, and have lost almost half my profit.

Today I had by far the worst session of my career. The dealer got an ace or a ten hole card for the entire first two-thirds of the first shoe. And things didn't get better from there. It was as if she just magically was able to get one more than me every single hand. And I busted on every stiff hand, well 75% anyway, that I was dealt. Meanwhile the table of idiots manages to grind out a win courtesy of the dealer busting - after I get to be the only one who busts, each and every time.

Since Feb 15 it's just been a familiar story. The roller coaster dives way down, moves up a little, plateaus for a while and then plummets again.

I no longer have the desire to continue this hobby and I just feel I have wasted my time.

In short, welcome to the club!

Many jobs are a grind. This is no exception. Just remember that if the dealer can make hands so many times, so can you. Quitting now would be like selling your stock when it hits bottom. I was at the bottom not long ago and am currently at an all time high. It will come back.

[mofungoo]

20 sessions = near zero in "Blackjack time". AP Blackjack is a long term process, long term meaning thousands of hours before your actual win rate approaches your theoretical win rate. You were running about twice your theo and you lost about half of it, making your results just about on target, for now.

The fluctuations in a Blackjack bankroll will be very dramatic, resembling a roller coaster ride more than a steady climb. It's unbelievable how bad it can get sometimes. Statistics such as standard deviation and risk of ruin mathematically describe the severity of these fluctuations, while N0 (N Zero) describes how long it takes to reach the long run. The best protection against losing your bankroll is to have a sufficient bankroll to begin with, at least 300 maximum bets. The larger your BR, the less risk of ruin.

Good luck and good cards!

[hitthat16]

This is why most beginners fail. They get on one bad streak and quit!

Good luck with whatever you choose. I just hate to see someone else become a statistic.

[hitthat16]

at least 1000 maximum bets.

Maybe for a full time professional...

The way the OP plays (or at least I suspect) he doesn't need 100 grand to be able to max bet one black.

[What me worry]

I'm new here and I feel your pain. It happened to me in the beginning too I had no one to coach me or help out with any critiquing. My suggestion would be to get totally honest with yourself. Analyze your play, your mistakes, your successes if any and try to find your weaknesses. In the meantime work on your count accuracy and speed everyday. More times than not my problem was getting impatient on the count and chasing my losses and that is gambling. If the table just wont go positive and everyone else is getting Bj's and 20's and that bothers you get up and get a soda, go eat, go for a walk anything, You do have to refresh your mind at some point. I'm not sure what the rules here on links to other Bj help sites are, if you im me I will send you 2 links to improve your speed and accuracy they are much easier to use than the old method of counting down multiple decks like the way I learned.

[DSchles]

"I started card counting this year, and for the first 20 sessions, I did remarkably well. My theoretical win rate was about $40-50 an hour and I was well above this average. At my maximum, I was $7700 ahead for the year."

So, understand that you were "entitled" to about 20 x $50 = $1,000 of e.v., and you got almost eight times that amount, right?

"Since then, I have lost about 65% of my sessions, and have lost almost half my profit."

And your point is what? That you were "entitled" to keep winning at a ridiculous rate forever? You don't mention how many more sessions you've played, but let's say 20 additional. And, you lost almost half your profit, so let's call that $3,800. You are now ahead $3,900 for 40 sessions, for an average of very close to $100 an hour, which is more than double what you are "entitled" to.

So, do you understand that you have absolutely no problem whatsoever, except the erroneous thought of some kind of "entitlement" to a great deal more out of card counting than you actually should be getting?

Finally, if you didn't understand going in that the swings from this game are brutal and that, in the short run, standard deviation swamps expectation, you really weren't psychologically ready to play. So, if you quit, don't make it because you don't think you can be successful at this endeavor; rather, make it because you though counting would provide a steady, even flow of income, like a paycheck, and you aren't equipped to handle the uncertain nature of the returns that you will ultimately receive.

Don

[bjarg]

Finally, if you didn't understand going in that the swings from this game are brutal and that, in the short run, standard deviation swamps expectation, you really weren't psychologically ready to play. So, if you quit, don't make it because you don't think you can be successful at this endeavor; rather, make it because you though counting would provide a steady, even flow of income, like a paycheck, and you aren't equipped to handle the uncertain nature of the returns that you will ultimately receive.

Looks like somebody ordered an eye opener.

[SiMi]

Howdy MM!

Thanks for sharing your pain. It can help to rant and get it out.

I feel compelled to chime in with others and note that you may be AHEAD of expectation at this point. If I'm reading correctly, you say you played 20 "sessions" of undefined length and were doing "remarkably well." Then, you played an additional unspecified number/length of sessions and lost about 2/3 of the sessions which results in a loss of about 1/2 of your previous winnings.

Since you know your theoretical win rate ($40-50 per hour), if you know the number of hours you've played at this rate, you can calculate your expected winnings to date and compare that to your ACTUAL winnings to date. It seems that you must have been OK with winning "only" $40-50 per hour or you wouldn't have even bothered to start counting with that EV. If you're even close to your expectation (or ahead!) you should feel pretty good. This kind of calculation might put a little more perspective on your results and give you something to focus on rather than your current dismal luck.

Then, you could calculate N0 for your game (or let CVCX do it) at this point and see how you're doing vs. N0 expectations. If your actual win rate is above EV and your results put you in a range you could reasonably expect given N0 and the probabilities, you're doing fine and there's no reason to quit. Here's a link to a free eBook on N0 if you want to go crazy and calculate everything under the N0 sun:

http://www.blackjackstartup.com/N0I.htm

It's probably harder when you start out winning so much because you're not as mentally prepared for the inevitable downturn. If all you've known is winning, it's tough to handle the first losses. But, again, if your results are close to your EV, why would you quit? It seems possible you're doing just fine and it's just a temporary mental thing that a little perspective will cure.

Whatever you decide, I appreciate your sharing because I think it helps everyone who has been there and had those bad feelings.

Best of luck!
SiMi

[Freightman]

Provided your game is sound - the math always wins out - it takes longer sometimes. During my first full year of play, I built up - from low spread red chip play - a bankroll of about 4500. Over 2 months, I lost about 40% of that - bankroll reduced to about 2500. I ended that year at about 4700. That year, as well as the next several, I never had a losing year, or a year which I did not win less than 8 of 12 months. I had 1 streak of 16 straight winning months. Last year, the proverbial shit hit the fan. I lost the first the 3 months, winning the next 4, which fortunately included a couple of monsters. My all time winnings were at a career high. I was reasonably well up in August (around 8k) when I hit the brick wall. I actually list money in August as well as the subsequent 5 months losing about 60k during this period. When it turned around - it really turned around, and u again look forward to a very profitable year.

Over the years, I've built a reasonably significant bankroll. Faith in the math and proper bankroll management have kept my bankroll very solid. There have been some pretty good responses in this thread. You will need to make a decision for what is best for you. Regardless of what it is - make sure it's the right reason.

[tjr5259]

Just keep hitting it hard. I had a similar thing happen to me when I first started but this is what a bankroll is for. Just trust the math and what you are doing, and keep hitting those bastards. It will turn around most likely.

[stopgambling]

You seemed to be thinking in the short term.Are you are still ahead of expectation? Don hit the nail. Eg. $50k bankroll , playing for 4 years(reasonable ROR) totaling 2000 hours . What you make at the end is what is important ,not what happened in between. I understand we are all human ,so deal with the human part. I think all the posts that responded to your thread are very good and constructive. Long term success is the key,therefore we play for the long run. Gambler look for short term LUCK. Are you an investor or a gambler?