I'm switching counts: speak now or forever hold your peace

**Avincow** · 03-07-2015, 09:47 PM

I'm getting pretty serious about this blackjack thing now. I've been using Hi-Lo for 7-8 months, I think it's time to upgrade.

Here is the break down of my play over the last 55 hrs (This means actually sitting down at the table playing. Does not include time watching tables, or any other time spent in the casino)

SD - 100 minutes (3%)
DD - 1366 minutes (42%)
6D - 1255 minutes (38%)
8D - 540 minutes (17%)

SD has been a recent addition, so that number will be a bit higher in my next 55 hrs.

Seeing that my main games are DD and 6D, I think I will switch to the Zen Count based on the good things I hear about it. It seems to be a well rounded count for pitch and shoe games. According to CVCX, on a $25 DD H17 DAS 1-6 spread game, looks like I can pull in an extra $8/hour. Even more in a head to head game. I can use that money for tips! (or not). But the main idea is that if I keep using Hi/Lo, I'm leaving money on the table, so that's the reason for wanting to upgrade. I feel like I'm at the point where I'm putting in enough time that which count I use matters. If I keep up my current pace, I will have 330 hours logged for 2015. Going from Hi-Lo to Zen, that's a difference of $8 * 330 = $2640!

So the idea is to learn Zen with all indices from -10 to 10. Of course, this will take a bit of work. So before I start, I was wondering if anyone had any objections. Any alternative counts I should be considering based on my play? Once I switch to Zen, I ain't switching again.

**ZenKinG** · 03-07-2015, 10:59 PM

Honestly man, take it from someone who used to stress miserably over which count to use, until I realized it's all BS. Just stick to Hilo. I mean for a pitch game, you probably could benefit from an ace neutral count and might be worth the effort, but in the real world it just doesn't correlate for the average card counter. Computer sims and real life blackjack is completely different. First off no one can estimate deck composition 100% accurately and that extra theoretical advantage that you had with the level 2 count is now out the window. Secondly mistakes do happen, believe it or not, it's just human nature, I dont care how perfect and quick you are, you will eventually make a mistake or two over the course of months due to fatigue or one simple distraction or look away from the table unexpectedly that will wipe out that theoretical advantage you had in the computer sims. Take the two counts you want to learn and compare the betting patterns and the time the bets are placed, you will see almost always you will be betting at the exact same time.

You're obviously still new at the game, which explains your lack of priorities of what makes a winning blackjack AP. As bigplayer likes to say "The count you use is the least important thing that will determine your success." And as KJ would say "You're chasing pennies when you should be chasing dollars." Two of the best quotes that kind of slapped me right in the face and made me reassess my priorities. Focus on what really matters, instead of asking what count should I learn, how about you start scouting for only the best pitch games and shoe games available. Find the deepest dealt shoe games down to half a deck, find the best rules, find sloppy dealers who pay you off wrong once every 100 hands, find dealers who flash their hole card, find a dealer who deals 200 rounds an hour, find and exploit weak shuffles that can be sequenced and or tracked, and MOST IMPORTANTLY find a store who will tolerate an aggressive spread and max bet. That's what really matters, and those things I just listed will trump any count you will ever learn by 20 fold.

I will say this though, if you begin to dedicate 90% or more of your playing time to single and double deck, then it is advisable to learn an ace neutral count, because that can pay some huge dividends. My suggestion then would be HiOpt II or AO II. But keep in mind ONLY if you're playing mainly pitch games. If you're going back and forth between shoe games and pitch games, honestly stick to HiLo and learn every + index deviation in the charts, as those will be the highest EV generators because they will be the times you have most of your money on the table and where you have a significant advtg.

Stop chasing pennies and start focusing on what other opportunites you can exploit with a simpler count such as HiLo that can quickly erase your miniscule theoretical advantage you would garner from a level 2 or 3 count. Backcounting two or even three shoes simultaneously is a start.

**mcallister3200** · 03-07-2015, 11:06 PM

I switched from Zen to hi-lo, and I'm not switching back. Much easier to count two tables at once. In a way I wish I would have just stuck with Zen as I switched to play with a team that I have minor regrets about the decision to play with, but I don't think count choice really matters much in the real world. Tthree and Tarzan would disagree. The discussion has been played out many times, you can find all the conflicting advice and opinions on the matter you want with a little searching. With regards to indices, Zen count will rise/drop at roughly twice the rate (tc+4 hi lo would be closer to +7/+8 in Zen) so you might want to learn higher than +10.
Did you play 330 hours total, or 330 hours DD in 2015? If you run the sims for 6 deck you will find the difference to be less. Play around with the sim differences in different games and with different spreads to get a better idea of what you think you'll gain IMO.
Does playing a double deck game while counting the shoe next to it sound like more extra profit than $8/hr? I do that with hi lo. I'm certainly not the most gifted AP out there so others may be able to, but I doubt I would have been able to do so without mistakes on a 2 level count, I didn't try though.

**Avincow** · 03-08-2015, 12:19 AM

Thanks for the advice, I know the discussion has been rehashed many times, but yes, the answers are always conflicting. On the wizard of vegas site someone was asking about learning hi lo for DD, and everyone was suggesting to learn a stronger count. That's what made me reevaluate again.

Can't I make mistakes in hi lo too? So wouldn't the theoretical be lower for hi lo as well? Or are we saying that more mistakes would be made in zen as opposed to hi lo?

@zenking: why does your signature say 'halves full indices'. That leads me to believe that you use halves. Why not use a simpler count as you just suggested to me?

I know it's pennies, but I chase the dollars too! I'm usually playing games with good penetration. And I'm on the lookout for hole carding opportunities but I'm just not seeing it. Shuffle tracking? Not too sure about that one. Most of the time it's shuffled in the machine. when it is hand shuffled and there are high cards left after cut card, well they break that up and lodge it in random places in the discard tray. And then they break up the discard tray into multiple piles and randomly shuffle them together. I can't keep track of that.

**stopgambling** · 03-08-2015, 01:32 AM

Analyze carefully ,maybe you will find something.On the other hand maybe not.If you can really do it all the better but keep those advices in mind,my friend.

RS · 03-08-2015, 01:49 AM

Originally Posted by Avincow

Thanks for the advice, I know the discussion has been rehashed many times, but yes, the answers are always conflicting. On the wizard of vegas site someone was asking about learning hi lo for DD, and everyone was suggesting to learn a stronger count. That's what made me reevaluate again.

Can't I make mistakes in hi lo too? So wouldn't the theoretical be lower for hi lo as well? Or are we saying that more mistakes would be made in zen as opposed to hi lo?

@zenking: why does your signature say 'halves full indices'. That leads me to believe that you use halves. Why not use a simpler count as you just suggested to me?

I know it's pennies, but I chase the dollars too! I'm usually playing games with good penetration. And I'm on the lookout for hole carding opportunities but I'm just not seeing it. Shuffle tracking? Not too sure about that one. Most of the time it's shuffled in the machine. when it is hand shuffled and there are high cards left after cut card, well they break that up and lodge it in random places in the discard tray. And then they break up the discard tray into multiple piles and randomly shuffle them together. I can't keep track of that.

Some shuffles are difficult to track, some are easy. And sometimes, it's the confusing looking shuffles that are actually easier. Just analyze the shuffle. Remember what the shuffle looks like. Which piles goes where, what gets riffled/stripped where, etc. Then once you get home, reconstruct the shuffle. You can even do it with just a pen and paper.

If you can count multiple tables with HiLo, you'd be better off doing that -- instead of counting one table with Zen or whatever other count. But if you're playing lots of DD, then counting other tables doesn't help you much. Unless you plan on playing a DD game then wonging into a 6D game.

**winnawinna** · 03-08-2015, 07:09 AM

In BBinBJ page 194 Renzey lists all of the systems and their respective starting "player" advantages. In a 6 deck game HiLo has a starting advantage of .72% and Zen at .77. So roughly an 8% edge by using the Zen count. I believe that the time it takes to switch systems and increased errors will negate any gains associated with a level 2 count. I do realize that the EV on a level two count is higher but I have been using a level one count for 4 years and it's been working for me

**Freightman** · 03-08-2015, 07:59 AM

Originally Posted by KJ

Excellent! ZenKinG and M3200 covered it nicely with "chasing pennies..." and tracking multiple tables.

Nothing left for me to say. I feel like I have an extra two minutes that I should do something productive with.

I can't see 2 tables at once - think I'll stay with halves

**mofungoo** · 03-08-2015, 08:11 AM

If you're already using Hilo, keep using it. A Hilo expert will definitely make more money in the casino than someone playing a more difficult count who makes mistakes.

**Freightman** · 03-08-2015, 08:30 AM

Originally Posted by mofungoo

If you're already using Hilo, keep using it. A Hilo expert will definitely make more money in the casino than someone playing a more difficult count who makes mistakes.

An expert in any count will make more money than anyone using whatever count who makes mistakes. I play halves, and I seldom make unintentional errors. I will, however, make intentional errors on minimum bets.

**bjarg** · 03-08-2015, 09:40 AM

Just go with whatever count you choose to play with.
Eventually, if you do well and you cross that magical line that separates wannabes from real pros you wont need a bunch of people on an internet board to tell you what count to use.
Cheers and good luck my friend.

**21gunsalute** · 03-08-2015, 10:28 AM

I find all this talk about making more mistakes using one system over another amusing. If you're practicing using a higher level count and making errors then you obviously shouldn't switch counts. But if you're talking about making more mistakes at an actual table, I don't know how you could make such a comparison. If you make a mistake at a table and realize it after it's too late then I would suggest that you're playing too fast for your skill level and should slow your play down. But I truly believe that most mistakes a player makes are never caught, making all such comparisons invalid. I'd practice using a higher level count until you're confident enough that all errors virtually disappear. Don't use a higher level count at an actual table until then.